Everyone is to Blame

I didn't get around to reading the Mitchell Report yet, but I needed to post on some things about what I've heard other than just a list of names and some of those names admitting to usage. But before I start, I've been more MIA than I'd like, a promotion at work leaves me with zero downtime to post a work and I am exhausted when I come home, so I don't go on the computer much. Just another excuse to add to the list for this blog.

But onto the Mitchell Report. In my view, this is a start to getting performance enhancing drugs out of baseball. Is it a strong, choke full of evidence report? Not really, but it confirms that steroid, HGH, or whatever players used is true and has been part of the culture of the game the last 20+ years or so. The problem the report ran into in order to make a strong case is that baseball has a culture of not pointing the figure at other players for wrong doing. That's what Mitchell was up against the whole time and it will continue to be what baseball is up against as it attempts to clamp down on this problem.

The thing about it is that commentators, analysts and the like are pointing the finger at Selig, players, and a few other people when honestly, we're all to blame:

• The fans are to blame for showing up to games, supporting teams who signed players who used the juice, and continuing to watch the sport.
  

• The team owners and management are to blame for showering players with money who probably didn't deserve it because they were cheating. That may have knowingly heard about drug usage and did not attempt to have a team policy to ban it.

• The personal trainers, be they for the team or personal trainers, are to blame for allowing this stuff into the clubhouse. Several gave up names in this report. The trainers, whether they were involved in supplying the stuff or not, had access to it and use clouded judgment to bring these drugs into the game.
  

• The players are to blame not only because many of them took it, but many of them likely tried the stuff even just once. They let the culture fester. While not pointing the finger is admirable in some cases, it is also a lousy and cowardly excuse that has now tarnished players, careers, and the game itself. It shows a lack of leadership among ballplayers in today's era.
• The players Union is to blame as well for just agreeing in 2002 to keep the players integrity somewhat in check. The union is there to support the players, but not on this level.

• Finally, MLB is to blame for not having this investigation earlier. Sure politics are a big part of why this didn't happen until late (such as saving the game after 1994), but it seems that taking action is happening sooner rather than later. MLB has been weak until recently on this issue, and it will be interesting to see how committed Selig, et al are to making the game clean again.

So my point is, anyone involved in baseball from watching the game as a fan to playing it or managing it from a business standpoint is to blame for steroids, HGH, and all the other performance enhancing drugs that have entered baseball. Although the 2002 drug policy was a first step, there is a long way to go before the game is cleaned up and even when stronger policies are in place, those who supply and create the drugs are still going to try to find there way around drug tests.

Trade Wars, Rivalry Style

We still haven't heard, but Johan Santana, one of the best pitchers in baseball the last four years, could go to the Yankees or Red Sox tonight. To get him both teams are going to lose prospects and young players, but gain an ace capable of 200+ K's and a sub 3.00 ERA.

From the Yankees perspective, it's no suprise they're in this. On the one hand, it's a strategy to raise the price in terms of players and a subsequent contract to the point where the Red Sox would lose its future franchise players and a chunk of its budget for years to come. On the other hand, the Yankees need Santana more in too many ways to list here.

I'm a bit disappointed the Yankees would be willing to give up a couple of the building blocks that are part of the Cashman rebuilding plan. Chamberlain has been untouchable, but they are willing to give up future ace Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy. Both are unproven, but looked promising this season. Additionally, it looks like Melky Cabrera would go who is a huge fan favorite. This would put Damon back in center and the Yanks would lose a decent outfielder who can fill in at any time in one of the OF slots.

But this is sometimes the cost of the Rivalry and both teams right now have assets they are willing to part with for one of the best young arms in the game. It's hard to say who is going to get Santana--they Yankees are saying now or never with the trade offer--and the Red Sox are hesitating a bit on what combination will be offered.

Most Vetted Player

Fake-Rod is back in more than one way. Today he won his 3rd MVP, the 2nd with the Yankees after a huge season, but I am not here to talk about that.I'm still not happy with Fake-Rod.

He did the best thing for himself by going back to the Yankees to negotiate himself after a huge public fallout, but it was too little too late. My problem with Fake-Rod is that he took his agents word, an agent who doesn't seem to listen to his clients, only the free agent market.

Yes, it was a botched publicity stunt, miscalculated and a big mistake. It was Fake-Rod's choice and he decided with his wallet and not his heart, which apparently was still with the Yankees. But all the while, it looks like he was influenced by Scott Boras or at the very least took his agents word that opting out was his best option.Fake-Rod has a lot to prove now that he's in NY for the rest of his career.

As he said today, he'd trade in his three MVPs for a world championship, and to be a true Yankee he will have to win one. It's certainly a good probabilty that Fake-Rod will break the HR record in the pinstripes, which will bring in revenue and be a part of his salary. But I'm wondering if they worked in some incentives for him to win a championship. No wait--how about perform well in the playoffs while in the pinstripes and win a championship?

Either way, Fake-Rod is not a true Yankee in this fans' heart yet. His MVP seasons have been great, but he's not as intense as a Paul O'Neil, not as magical as a Derek Jeter, and not as quietly leading as a Bernie Williams. He is still finding his place after four years.

Forever Yankees

The Yankees made Jorge Posada the highest paid catcher in the game, keeping him for 4 more years and likely a Yankee for his career. There really wasn't another choice for the Yankees to make--no other great catcher was on the market, Posada had a career year at age 36 showing he can still play, and there isn't a catcher waiting in the wing. The one concern in this is, how much longer Posada can actually catch? But the answer to that is, he can become a part-time and then full-time DH sometime in the next couple of years as long as the Yankees don't continue to have older players competing for the DH spot.

Posada has come a long way and will be rejoined by his catching mentor Joe Girardi this year. On the field he seems to handle pitchers well and communicates well in times of trouble. He can still hit, has a good batting eye, and in many ways is an unsung hero on the Yankees especially during the dyntasy years.

Not a Yankee yet for the rest of his career, but I expect him to sign soon is Mariano Rivera. Rivera is showing signs of cracking after this past year, but still has success closing out games. And it may be likely that he has a shot at passing Trevor Hoffman's save record. After all he has done he'll be back for at least three more years, it's almost expected that "Enter Sandman" be played as the Yankee closer comes into the game at Yankee stadium and not elsewhere (I know about the Wagner thing). Like Posada, he is a Yankee great and would be hard to let go.

Sometime this weekend I will comment on the new Fake-Rod outlined contract to stay a Yankee as well as baseball's best friend, Barry Bonds, being indicted.

Abreu & Pettitte: One here, one gone?

In some old news, the Yankees took the option on Bobby Abreau's contract so that he'll be a Yankee in 2008. This was pretty much the Yankees only move, unless they wanted to go after Tori Hunter or Andruw Jones, shifting Melky to right. But my guess is both those players would want just about the same amount and honestly, Abreu's better at getting on base even if his power's pretty much sapped.

Pettitte on the other hand is up in the air on what he wants to do, but he declined his option. Is he pulling a Roger Clemens by saying he may want to retire and then want more money? The Yankees seem to understand and are giving Pettitte his space and time to decide. But obviously if Pettitte is gone, the pitching rotation is in much rougher shape.

Blog Offseason:Things To Come

This is the slow time of year for me with sports--although I do watch football and am trying to get back into hockey after a hiatus with that (along with UMass football or b-ball whenever that's on)--once baseball ends, being able to turn on the TV or MLB.TV everyday is over. So now that baseball isn't everyday until March or April 2008, my blogging won't be as frequent.

But I can promise a few things will be written:

1. Anytime there's a Yankee or Red Sox transaction that's newsworthy (trade, free agent, Fake-Rod) I'll post my reaction to it.
2. If there's something newsworthy in baseball I find worth commenting on, I'll post.
3. I will give an assessment of the Yankees 2007, a player-by-player blow of 2007, and what we can expect from the team and key players in 2008.

I'm hoping, really hoping Doug comes back and posts and I would like us to do some sort of debate or Q&A each other on our teams.

So for now, check back every couple of weeks or if you see something big, check in. Also email us at rivalryredux@gmail.com, we're happy to take some questions (I will be getting to one long overdue from this summer).

Head Over Heart

The Yankees took care of business quickly and picked Joe Girardi
as their new manager. I was already sad to see Joe Torre go, but now it looks like Don Mattingly, who I thought to be the next Yankee manager, is going to go. Mattingly a fan favorite, and my favorite player of all time, certainly had expectations to be the heir after serving as bench coach for the past two years, but it looks like the Yankees made their decision with their heads and not their hearts. So now it will be sad to see Mattingly go and who knows if he'll ever wear the pinstripes again.




Looking at Girardi as the next manager is a solid move. The key points to picking him are as follows:

• Girardi knows the Yankees organization, its expectations, and how things are run from being a player from 1996-1999 and bench coach in 2005.


• Girardi has managerial experience as the Marlins manager in 2006 where he won NL Manager of the Year for putting a young, inexperienced, and low budget team on the field and doing much better than expected (they were in the playoff hunt if you remember).


• From his Florida experience, he knows how to work with young players which fits right into the who rebuilding strategy the Yankees have going.


• He has a strong reputation of being a no nonsense leader, strict but fair, wants to win, intelligent (he's a Northwestern grad), articulate, prepares well, pays attention to detail, and handles the media well.


• As a catcher he'll know how to work well with the Yankees young pitching staff, possibly use the run more, and be able to analyze other teams' pitchers as well.

Right now it's pure speculation how he'll fare as the manager in New York, we won't know until spring training starts. In the mean time, the Yankees have Rivera, Posada, and Abreu to think about as well as a hole a thirdbase, their starting rotation, bullpen--lots of decisions. But I think Girardi was the right way to start.

To My Red Sox Friends,

Congratulations, I thought the Red Sox deserved to win and the comeback against the Indians was amazing to watch. This new century has brought a new definition to what it means to be a Red Sox fan, player, Red Sox Nation--you name it. You can throw out the curse, however you look at it this is a new franchise that will continue to do well.

Someone rubbed it in that because I'm a Yankee fan, a Red Sox World Series win should hurt my team the most. The thing about a World Series win is that one team is the best out of 29 other teams. Twenty nine of us don't get to celebrate, just remember that, we all suffer, or whatever you want to call it.

I'll leave it to Doug to summarize, celebrate, whichever he chooses to to this win. He's been absent since August and he'd best able to talk Red Sox on here.

Fake-Rod

"You're asking me what my sincere feeling is. I want to 100 percent stay in New York. Period. That's it. I don't know how many ways I can say it."
-- Alex Rodriguez, on WFAN-AM's "Mike and the Mad Dog." 3/2007

"Either New York is going to kick me out of New York this year, say 'I've had enough of this guy, get him the hell out of here,' and we have an option. Or New York is going to say, 'Hey, we won a world championship, you had a big year, you were a part of it and we want you back.'"
-- Alex Rodriguez, in the same interview. 2/3007

My emotions have the best of me, but I'm officially going to start bashing A-Rod--or as I will now call him--Fake-Rod. As just announced during the World Series, Fake-Rod has opted out of his contract with the Yankees, which shouldn't be a huge surprise given his agent Scott Boras' greedy ways. But I'm a bit more upset at Fake-Rod because of what he said above, something he always said since putting on the pinstripes.

Now, let me be clear, I was never a fan of Fake-Rod, but I also never hated him. Sure he had the biggest multi-year contract ever, but that was the Rangers fault. As a Yankee fan, I gave him a chance but he never fully became a true Yankee because he always disappointed in the playoffs. With that aside though, he's the best player the Yankees have had since--well maybe Mantle.

I was going to write a post on this whole saga and what the Yankees should do, but it's clear now they won't negotiate a new contract. At least they better not. Even so, something I have never been comfortable with about Fake-Rod is that in NY, you never really knew what kind of player he was going to be. He suffered two sub-par years (2004 & 2006) relative to his entire career but also two-MVP season (2005 and yes, he'll win it this year). His fielding and move to 3B was never a solid decision and overall he had a love hate relationship with the fans.

Fake-Rod is still the best ballplayer in the game today, even at 31, but even the greatest players never win a championship. But all along, Fake-Rod talked the talk that he wanted to win one in NY, end his career as a Yankee, and win the fans over. Apparently his talk is worth shit.

All of this will be labeled, the "business of baseball", and the main excuse Boras gave (not Fake-Rod directly) is that basically he (Fake-Rod) didn't know what was going on with the Yankees in terms of a manager, ownership, and certain teammate. Though curiously Boras added, "He really didn't want to make any decisions until he knew what they were doing." So opting out isn't a decision at this juncture?

I'm sure more details will come out in the days to follow. If the Yankees are truly done with Fake-Rod, then only a handful of teams could pay him for whatever he wants, which will be yet again the biggest multi-year contract in baseball. Could he be a Red Sox next year? It would be amusing seeing how adamant Sox fans have been calling him A-Fraud, cursing him out, and seeing the teams payroll likely increase upwards of $200 million like that other team.

Anyway, I'm done with Fake-Rod and so is New York, good riddance!

Before the Meds Kick in

It looks like the Red Sox pulled it off and I wanted to quickly post here to congratulate them. I honestly did not think they were going to come back like this. But the Indians lost this one--a reversal of sorts, bad starting pitching and an offense that wasn't effective (which the Red Sox had earlier in the series).

So before my meds kick in to relieve pain and make me pass out, congrats to the Red Sox. This 2004 onward looks like a new era for you guys and I think that's a good thing considering your history before that. And the best team in the AL is going to the World Series.

I was on the phone with my aunt before the game, and my uncle--a lifelong Red Sox fan--said he wouldn't gloat. I've been around Red Sox fans my whole life and honestly I love them. They are the most passionate fans in baseball in my view and they make the Rivalry an awesome sporting event every year. So eventhough they beat the Indians, I can understand why they may gloat just a bit.

But it's onto CO for them against a hot Rockies team. I think this will be a good World Series.

Insulting

I don't really care what the Yankee higher ups say about Torre for turning down an opportunity to manage the Yankees again, from a logical and rational standpoint Torre made the right choice. What this offer came down to was a difference in what was fair. Unfortunately for Torre he got the raw end of the proposed deal because it was a business decision, nothing personal--though in the end it's become that.

So what was the different in fairness? From the Yankee higher up standpoint, despite the perceived changing of guards, the Steinbrenner Doctrine as Buster Onley calls it, is still in place. All that matters is the championship, winning it and as soon as it is won, another one is needed. Not winning the championship is failure and there no excuses because the Yankees can spend and trade away any year they want to reach such success.

Anyhow, the Yankees took a page out of the book of corporate America in offering Torre a deal. Imagine the Yankees as a private company and they hire Torre to manage the operations with the goal being to have the highest profit of all companies. At first he does this in the first four of five years, but since (seven years), although he's been close, he hasn't reined the most profit in. So he has a performance review and the options on a table are: 1) fire Torre, 2) bring back Torre for a few more years, or 3) bring back Torre but give him additional goals to meet with incentives. The additional goals make sense as a business decision because some have not been met in the past few years (winning ALDS, ALCS, World Series). Additionally, because of Torre's lack of performance he gets a paycut--he was getting paid too much for too little the last few years. But if Torre meets all the goals, in the new deal he'll make more than he ever has before and get another year to do it again.

So from a business sense Torre didn't perform, so he got a paycut and less years in a contract offer. But if he did perform well, he could make more money and save his job another season.

But like the corporate America today, the decision left out things like having made the playoffs every year for 12 years straight, winning all those World Series up to 2000, and this season turning it around and making the playoffs when it looked like they wouldn't make it at all. It left out the leadership Torre had displayed, the respect his players had for him, and the loyalty the fans had for him. All of that doesn't go into a business decision because you can't put numbers to it.

And that's why it wasn't fair to Torre. The humanistic element was left out of it. There was no loyalty, no input from the players, and it added more pressure for him and his team to perform next year. Even if Torre accepted, he could have been fired if the Yankees started off terribly. Either way you looked at it, he was on a tighter leash, on the hook, back against the wall, it's not how Joe Torre played the game. It wasn't about the money, it was going to be there--this is the Yankees afterall.

To me, that's not how you treat an employee, it is insulting, and I think the Yankees will regret this decision.

Postseason Notes

This is a smorgisborg of sorts (I know I spelled that wrong), but I have lots on my mind with the playoffs. I'll get to the first reaction I have regarding Joe Torre.

Torre Declines

I just read it--Torre is gone, turning down a one year contract with incentives to return as the Yankees manager. It amazes me how quickly it was settled and possibly how Torre seemed to have made up his mind. Was the deal an insult to Torre or did he not plan to come back anyway? There are a couple pros to this decision--one pro being at least an offer was made, which to the public and Yankees team shows that the Yankee decision makers were giving Joe one more chance. But maybe it was a bit half assed.

The other pro is that I believe the Yankees will have a new manager by Monday and I think it will be Don Mattingly. I don't know anyone that doesn't respect Don Mattingly for who he was as a player and I'm sure he'll have the same respect stepping in as a manager.

Whatever happens, it is happening quickly because the leadership issue for the Yankees can not be dragged out with the free agents looming.

Past Does Not Predict the Future

Tonight is game 5 of the ALCS and there are references already to the Red Sox being in this position before and coming back a la 2004 style. The media and everyone else for that matter seems to forget that was the first time that ever happened in baseball and chances are the Red Sox won't make the World Series. After game 1, the Indians adjusted their approach but in general the team has hit well with runners on as they did against the Yankees. This series proves once again that pitching makes it or breaks it for teams--the Red Sox pitching has a 6.75 ERA in the series and the bullpen has been blown up.

"Who Cares" Anyway?

Whoever writes Manny Ramirez's biography will have one hell of a time explaining who Manny is. Oh right, he's just being Manny. The last game Manny hit a HR, after Youkilous and Ortiz had just hit solo shots, and made himself a target for bean ball sometime in the future by celebrating more than he should have at that point in the game. He then went on to basically say, well if we lost the series who cares, we'll be back next year. Maybe this is his usual poor judgement but why does Manny care about that HR and not winning?

Will Boras make A-Rod a Fraud?

I want to do a separate post on A-Rod to assess whether the Yankees should sign him or not and I must do it soon since things are heating up. Boras met with his client the past few days to go over his options--or more specifically how much more money he could get for A-Rod. Trust me, Boras has some tricks up his sleeve. Not only will A-Rod get more money, Boras will likely add some new things to his contract that have never been seen before in baseball. Whomever signs him will give A-Rod a deal of at least 5 years and $30-$35 million/season. Some of that money will come from revenues generated by a regional sports channel or part-ownership of the team--just watch, this is what Boras' career has been about and this is his best client, so he will pull out all the stops.

Can't Help It

Even though the Yankees season is over, I'm still watching the playoffs which is why I'm in on a Saturday night watching the Red Sox, Indians game. This is a quick post, but I wanted to say that I'm rooting for the Indians and Rockies to go to the World Series. Here's why...

I'll start with the easier argument the Rockies. This is one of those teams who defy that argument that the top teams based on the regular season are more likely to succeed in the playoffs. I think the Rockies in part got lucky but they also earned it. What I love about the Rockies being in this is that this is only their second time, have been a unsuccessful expansion team for much of its history, and are the underdog. Forget about winning 18 in the last 19 games, no one expected them to be here or even have a record over .500 during the season.

The harder argument to make is the Indians due to the context of this blog. Let me start by saying, at the beginning of the season I picked the Indians to win the World Series. That was not too far fetched as many experts (I'm not in that field) gave the Indians a chance. This has nothing to do with the Red Sox or being a Yankee fan. I have loved watching Cleveland as a franchise rebuild itself and making it clear to its fans, "hey, we were great in the 1990s, but the best way for us to get back into winning a World Series is to cut fat and start over again." And that's what they've done in the last seven years or so--building through the farm system without signing the big free agents. I've loved how they for years said CC Sabathia was going to be the staff ace and he's proved he is more and more every year. And I love quite a few of their players as a fan of baseball--Sizemore, Carmona, Hafner, and Martinez. We got a taste of them almost making it to the playoffs in 2005 and last year was a lessons learned kinda season, but this year they have been great fun to watch.

So Indians v Rockies is my updated prediction and the Indians will win it in six games.

Now What?

I'm still recovering from the Yankees' loss on Monday, but it wasn't a huge shock to me that they'd lost. Of course several Red Sox fans, including a family member of mine, relished in the moment that they'd lost--either because if they'd won the Red Sox would have faced the Yankees in the ALCS and they fear that or it's just because the Yankees' season is over--it's usually a combination of both I think.

The past three post seasons have been hard to swallow (2004 is in its own category), mainly because the Yankees offense looks terrible in the playoffs. Guys who were red hot going in stumble and they can't hit in the clutch or with runners on. I'll look up the stats eventually, but I'm pretty sure this has been the case from observation. The pitching too hasn't been as solid either. You can never predict how a pitcher will do, but there haven't been many "pitching gems" for Yankees pitchers the last three years in the playoffs.

Anyhow, as most people know Joe Torre is probably gone. I read what I wrote the other day and was bothered that I wrote Joe would welcome leaving. I had written that in the context of Steinbrenner's ways, knowing that Joe knew he'd have to welcome leaving because he failed again, he knew he was out. But after hearing Joe Torre speak after the game, he certainly doesn't welcome leaving on the personal level and love he has for his players and game.

And therein lies the problem for the Yankees now, because it's not only a Joe's love for his players, it's their's for him. Already there is speculation that a few players, key ones over the years, could leave if Joe is let go. Rivera has already spoken out about this. The list also includes Posada, A-Rod, Pettitte, and possibly others who are free agents this offseason. There could even be a long-term affect from this as other players may leave next year based on this one decision. At the core of this issue is the matter of loyalty and its obvious whose side the players are on.

All the while, the Yankees are rebuilding, but this could throw a wrentch in that machine as well. For the past decade or so the Yankees have become an organization players are drawn to because they have a good shot at winning a championship. With the loss of Torre and others, they may be viewed both internally and externally as the organization that doesn't want to keep the people in place that give them that shot every year.

Unfortnately, I believe Torre is gone unless there's some sort of "Rudy" moment where players come in and put their jerseys on Steinbrenner's desk. Even if that happens I also believe a couple of those jersey may stay on his desk and never be worn again.

End of An Era?

As I'm writing this the Yankees are down 6-1 in the bottom of the 4th. It ain't over yet, but the chances of winning the game keep getting lower. Obviously if you haven't heard, Joe Torre will likely be let go as the Yankees manager if they lose the ALDS and that could be tonight.

Joe Torre has been a great manager for the New York Yankees since 1996. Certainly he can attribute his entire managerial success to New York after stops with the Mets, Cardinals, and Braves. It's been more than the four World Series wins and having been spoiled with watching the Yankees 12 straight years in a row in the playoffs. First and foremost, he was the man who lead these Yankee teams on the ball field to successful seasons when just a few years before 1996 the Yankees were the laughing stock in baseball (and yes I know Buck Schowalter, Bob Watson and others had a lot to do with the rebuilding prior to that). He did this without much controversy, always staying cool and calm on the bench and acting much like a father figure amongst the players.

As a Yankee fan this team has gone from more of a smallball approach to a team filled with superstars, power hitters, and well paid players. In saying that, he certainly managed egos, if there were any--and I would think there were many. The egos most likely came in after 2001 when the Yankees started signing larger and larger contracts with the likes of former MVP Jason Giambi, Cy Young winners Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, and all talk Gary Sheffield. And with players like this came a more powerful offense and an attempt at a powerful rotation. But Joe kept them in line and managed his players well.

What I loved about Joe Torre is that in the New York spotlight, he never cracked and was down to earth and honest when he spoke about the team and its players. I never saw Joe explode at the media or point a finger at a player or coach when something went wrong. He always understood the situation, Steinbrenner, and what was expected, which was always a World Series championship.

I would expect Torre to be done after this season whether the Yankees happen to win the World Series or lose tonight. It's time for a fresh start in my mind not just for the Yankees but also for Torre as well. I would guess Torre would welcome the change anyhow because the past four postseasons have not gone his way and he knows with his job description that that is failure. But more than that, it's been the same story since 2002 and the story needs to change.

What will be most difficult is seeing Joe go despite his early success and subsequent failures in the postseason. I love Joe Torre, don't get me wrong, but his players love him more, many of whom (Jeter, Posada, Rivera, Cano, Cabrera, Matsui, to name a few) have played their entire major league careers with him. The amount of respect for Torre from fans and players alike is insurmountable and when he's gone, it will take a long healing process and major adjustment to get used to a new manager.

Whatever happens, Torre's Era will be looked at as a successful one even if he didn't win the World Series the last seven years of his tenure. He brought in a new baseball dynasty--and a new Yankee Dynasty to New York from 1996-2001--after the city had not seen the team win a World Series since 1978. He had a winning record every season including 10 seasons winning the AL East, four with 100+ wins (including that amazing 1998 season), and making the playoffs every year he managed. Not many managers have done that. Torre is in a special class, an elite class of managers, and he'll go down as one of the greatest of Yankee managers in their history.

Speculating Awards: The Cy Youngs

Today I finally turn my sights to the Cy Young races in the AL and NL. I am writing this one two week s after the first "Speculating Awards" came out because two weeks can make or break a pitcher. So now that it's the last week of baseball's regular season, I think it's safe to say I can make an assessment of who very well will win the Cy Young awards.

A quick reminder of the stats I will use. Like my assessment of the MVP, I will look at traditional pitching stats that voters tend to look at, present some additional stats to round out the traditional ones, and finally use a few Baseball Prospectus stats to sort things all out (unfortunately I am unable to get PERA and Stuff from the BP database, they usually publish those number in their annual book).

First a reminder of how to read BP's stats:

What is SNLVAR? It stands for Support Neutral Lineup Value Above Replacement player (or pitcher in this case). That means nothing, but the basic idea is that is counts how many wins abover a replacement pitcher the pitcher in question has if he pitched in neutral environment (adjusting for opposing lineup, ballpark, and how a traditional win was won). Essentially, SNLVAR tries to show that the traditional way of counting a win (that the starting pitcher has the lead and that lead is held) is decieving. A pitcher can give up 6 runs in 5 innings, but if the offense put up 10 on the board he gets the win despite a crummy performance.

I wrote this in the primer, but let's look at a couple of Beckett's starts this year to prove my point. On April 21st against the Yankees Beckett threw 6.2 innings and gave up 4 ER (actually 1 run was unearned, so 5 total). Not terrible, but not spectacular for a start. He did end up winning the game. On the flip side, on July 15th Beckett pitched 8 innings, gave up 2 ER and struck out 8, but he lost the game. Both cases show that the pitcher doesn't have complete control over their wins and that is what SNLVAR is for.

An additional stat is BABIP or Batting Average on Balls In Play. It is a measure of a pitchers defense behind him and his overall luck. The average BABIP is .290, but often times this measure fluctuates for a pitcher over time.

American League Cy Young

1. C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland Indians

Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 18-7/3.19/205
Non-Traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.14/19/.258/.391
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .316/6.5/61.7

How could I say Sabathia when he doesn't lead the AL in wins and has a slightly higher ERA than Josh Beckett? Well, to me Sabathia's numbers are a little better, but not by much. Maybe I'm relying too much on BPs stats, but they tell me that although Sabathia defense and luck are against him, he has contributed more wins to his team as shown by SNLVAR and VORP. But these numbers are very close between the two.

A key element to my decision making is that Sabathia has thrown a few more starts than Beckett. So what? Well, as I stated in the beginning of this post, a few starts can make or break a pitcher's season. Sabathia is a workhorse over the years, especially this one. His strikeout rate has increased every year since his rookie season, showing that he can get batters out alone. He's also seen his BB/9 decrease each year as well to a new career low of 1.38 this season. Overall this just shows me Sabathia has a bit more maturity, effectiveness at getting batters out and keeping them off the basepaths, and stamina than Beckett.

2. Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox

Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 20-6/194.7/3.14/188
Non-Traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.13/15/.240/.363
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .301/6.3/58.1

Beckett's great success this year was lowering his HRs from 41 last year to 15 this year. He also improved his GB% (ground ball percentage or the percentage of balls in play that are on the ground) to 48.5%. Although he has a better W-L record than Sabathia his SNLVAR and VORP are just a bit lower than Sabathia's. Beckett wasn't as dominating as Sabathia when facing hitters as the Red Sox defense and good luck play into his record.

But the numbers are close to Sabathia and it was a tough call to put Beckett second. I think he will win the Cy Young which shouldn't suprise anyone since Beckett was due for a great season like this one day.

3. Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians

Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 18-8/208/3.03/133
Non-Traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.22/14/.248/.348
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .284/6.7/60.9

Two weeks ago I may have put Chien-Ming Wang here, but his last couple of starts have been shakey--hence why I'm writing this post now. So you may be wondering, "hey Carmona has a higher SNLVAR than Sabathia and Beckett, AND his ERA is lower why is he third on your list?" Carmona is an interesting case. He doesn't strike out a lot of hitters, but his BABIP reflects his defense and luck is on his side more often than not when he pitches, which is a good thing considering he has relied on them more (his GB% is 64.7%). And his BAA is lower than Sabathia's as is his SLG. The problem for me is that he has 61 walks, which is more than what Sabathia and Beckett. It doesn't mean he is wild, but it puts him at a higher risk of allowing runs to score. Fortunately he didn't--and I'd do more investigating to see how many double plays he got and so forth. All in all, Carmona's record and other stats show some signs of a slightly weaker pitcher who relies upon his defense to get his outs. There is nothing wrong with that--that's exactly what Wang does as well--but Sabathia and Beckett are a bit better doing it on their own.

Other notable names for Cy Young consideration in no particular order:
John Lackey (essentially a tie for 3rd with Carmona, but I had to pick one), Chien-Ming Wang (another solid season), Johan Santana (the record doesn't do him justice), Erik Bedard (he'll be somewhere else when he's a free agent), Dan Haren (great first half), JJ Putz (best closer this year), and Roy Halladay (usually up there as long as he pitches as full a season as he can).

National League Cy Young

1. Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres

Tradiational Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 18-6/210.0/2.36/233
Non-traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.03/10/.202/.292
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .278/8.9/77.2

If any pitcher has been truly dominant this year in baseball it has been Peavy. Even if the Padres do not make the playoffs, which could be the case now after this past week, Peavy is the clear winner. He leads the NL in strikeouts and has held hitters to a .202 BAA. He hasn't given up many hits 6.6/nine innings and only gave up 10 HRs (I realize he plays in Petco however). The real sign of dominance is in his SNLVAR and VORP, both which lead the majors. And he also leads the majors in ERA.

After an up and down season last year, Peavy's Cy Young is a year off and I'd expect him to win a couple more after this one.

2. Brad Penny, Los Angeles Dodgers

Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 16-4/203.0/2.93/133
Non-traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.30/9/.259/.361
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .305/7.2/63.4

This year his arm has held in tac but won't be throwing in the playoffs. Penny has delivered another solid season with a great ERA and career highs in SNLVAR and VORP. His walks are a bit high (70) and he doesn't strike out a ton of batters like Peavy, but he keeps the ball on the ground (50.9% GB%) and out of the stands (9 HRs allowed). If Peavy wasn't around he'd be your NL Cy Young winner, but he's a few steps behind.

3. Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamonbacks

Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 17-10/229.3/3.02/192
Non-traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.18/12/.234/.332
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .289/6.7/64.4

The 10 losses don't mean much, as the D-Backs are a very young team that doesn't have a great offense at all. Webb, who was last years Cy Young winner, had a tremendous second half going 9-4, but throwing 42 scoreless innings of work in five starts (three were complete game shutouts). It's a sure sign that Webb is a fierce pitcher who can get batters out with the K (he continues to improve like Sabathia in K's) and ground ball (63.2% GB%). Like Penny his walks are a bit high (70), but he held opposing batters to a .234 BAA and his defense is solid behind him.

Other notable names for Cy Young consideration in no particular order:
John Smoltz (his closer role for four years may have saved his arm some at 40), Roy Oswalt (pitched well on a terrible Astros team), Jose Valverde (another reason why the D-Backs will win the west), and Tim Hudson (great comeback year, put it back together).

Hindsight and Foresight: Yankee Review September 17 to September 30th

With this blog the one post I've always made time for is this one and this happens to be the last one this year. I've used the "Hindsight and Foresight" posts as a method for me to keep up with the team, take a close look at what's been happening, and to comment on it. While I consider myself a dedicated Yankee fan, I don't catch all the games, read all the articles, and so forth, but throughout this season this was my refuge to say what I needed to say about the team.

Yes, it now looks like the Yankees are set to make the playoffs--and that's the first time I'm saying it because it looks like they're in this one. Throughout the season I was a skeptic--I have some proof below of what I said. Now I'll probably be a skeptic in the playoffs. There's no one way to describe the season other than it was one that started ugly and looked a hell of a lot better towards the end. I don't know what this will mean for the playoffs, it's still in the air who will play who in the AL, but assuming the Yankees have a solid last week of the regular season, they will get some good looks as contenders to go to the World Series.

Hindsight: Birth of Post to Today

I looked back at some things I wrote in previous "Hindsight and Foresights" and even going into the beginning of this month I offered lots of skepticism with a dash of hope at times.

In one of the first of these posts I said, "Last year, I predicted (wrongly), that the Yankees would not make the playoffs. I seem to be a year off with that prediction. " (5/28)

Shortly after I stated, "I was trying to think of what the positives for the Yankees are this season and honestly I can't think of any." (6/4)

When the Yankees started winning a lot right after the All-Star break I menioned, "But I've seen how this Yankee season has gone so if trends continue, this current streak is just another blip on the radar." (7/24)

And the beginning of this month I continued, "It's hard to say if the Yankees will make the playoffs after last week's performance. The great part was the sweep of the Red Sox at home. The worst part was watching them get beat out by the Devil Rays immediately afterwards." (9/3)

But I offered hope and advice during the year as well:

In May I made a very general comment, "The only advice I can give the Yankees today is to play better, with more intensity and work together as a team."

I continually said they need to beat the teams they need to beat, "But looking at it, the Yankees schedule could favor them if, as I keep saying over and over again, they beat the teams they can and need to beat." (7/12)

You can't pin the Yankees huge comeback on one factor or even two. I'll pin it to seven factors:

1. A-Rod's amazing season
2. Underperformers (esp Cano, Matsui, Abreau) finding faith in hitting
3. Solid pitching by Wang and Pettitte down the stretch
4. The Youngsters: Chamberlain, Cabrera, Hughes, Cano, Kennedy
5. Sticking with Cashman's Rebuilding plan
6. Overcoming distractions (Giambi steroid talk, injuries, A-Rod's contract)
7. Steinbrenner not panicing

When 2007 is over and done with, I'll discuss and give my big picture assessment. That won't be until November or so. But with that, for the final time in 2007 the weekly stats:

Weekly Stats

W-L: 5-1
RS/RA: 45/27
Offensive number (BA/OBP/SLG): .311/.407/.425
Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 3.92/1.32/7.39/.266/.371
Who's Hot: Mike Mussina, 1.93 ERA, 14 IP, 11 Ks, 2-0 just in time!
Who's Not: Jason Giambi, .100/.400/.100 and his foot's bothering him again.
My Yankee of the Week: The entire team, they've pulled it together and made me look like some crack pipe blog writer. Great season boys.

Foresight: September 24th to September 30th

This is it. The Yanks wrap up Toronto, head to Tampa Bay and then to Baltimore. And I get to take a vacation to California for 10 days. I will try to write some more--like the Cy Young Speculation post before I leave, but after Thursday you won't hear from me much until I get back. Thanks for reading these posts, your comments, and keep reading. I'll bring back Hindsight and Foresight next year.

To the Wire

With just a little over a week left in the 2007 regular season, it's crazy how close several of these races to the playoffs have become. At this time there are 16 teams (by my count) that could still make the playoffs--it would take a big win streak for a couple to realistically make it (Atlanta and Seattle)--but you have to admit it's exciting.

I'm not here to brag, but the Red Sox lead is now down to 2.5 games. Doug already harped on the Boston writers, but it's amazing how on May 29th the Yankees were at their low point 14.5 games behind the Red Sox and now are the closest to them then they've ever been. It would blow my mind if the Yankees won the AL East but as I've said if they just make the playoffs as the Wild Card team, that would be pretty special, and their 13th playoff appearance in a row.

It looks like the Angels will win the AL West pretty soon seeing Seattle faded this month and are now 8.5 games behind. The Angels have been a successful team since 2002 and have appeared each year except for 2003 and 2006. They're also the favorite right now to go to the World Series and as a Yankee fan I find them a bit scary to play.

The Tigers who were closing in again on Cleveland and the Yanks have dropped two to the Tribe and wrapping up that series today. But although they are 6.5 behing the Indians and 4.5 in the Wild Card, they could still come back as they play the Royals and Twins to finish off the season. I do think the Indians should win the central and we'll finally get to see this rebuilt team who nearly made the playoffs two years ago display its young talent.

Once again the Mets are losing ground to the Phillies and have to contend with all of those NL West teams for a playoff spot. The Mets to me are a weak playoff team even if they make it, so if they happen to lose the NL East in these final days I wouldn't be suprised.

As for the NL Central, those Cards faded pretty badly, but it's a neck and neck race between the Brew crew and Cubbies. Unfortunatly, whoever loses doesn't get into the playoffs. The Cubs have the easier schedule here on out (Pirates, Marlins, and Reds) but anything is possible. Even if they are tied in W-L at the end of the year, the Cubs would win it since they lead the season series with the Brewers 9 games to 6.

Since 2004, the NL West has always been close. This year the Rockies have been the better team in the mix. A key series is going on this upcoming weekend as the D Backs play the Dodgers--this will determine the Dodgers fate for sure. I'm suprised the D Backs are leading this thing because San Diego is the better team to me. But the injury of Chris Young on SD has had an impact. This one's in the air.

Whatever happens we'll know in less than two weeks, and while the football season is getting more attention, I think these baseball playoff races are the thing to watch in sports right now.

Hindsight and Foresight: Yankee Review September 10th to September 23rd

If it were the playoffs right now, the Yankees would have the successful postseason formula this past week--strong pitching matters more than scoring lots of runs. It's actually a finding from Baseball Prospectus' book Baseball Between the Numbers in a chapter called "Why Doesn't Billy Beane's Shit Work in the Playoffs?". Basically, they find that postseason success correlates more with good pitching than good hitting. And this past week--even with a couple breakout games, the Yankees hitting was poor overall, but the pitching kept them in it.

Hindsight: September 10th to September 16th

Up north of the border, Hughes, Mussina, and Kennedy had very respectable outtings. This was a good sign since Hughes may be getting into the swing of things in the rotation and now has two quality starts in a row, Mussina got out of his rut after some rest, and Kennedy who has come in and filled in nicely so far. The bats went south in the final game as Brian Bruney gave up a 9th inning winning hit to Frank Thomas. But they still took 2 out of 3.

In the final showdown at Fenway the game's scripts went as follows: Yankee comeback win, Boston blowout, and a final nailbiter. I was able to catch the Yankees comeback on Friday night as soon as I turned on the TV. Okejima simply had a bad outting, leaving pitches up and not being able to find the strike zone. I was impressed how the Yankees quickly changed their strategy when Pappelbon came in as they went up hacking at early pitches. It paid off though and a six run inning ensued capping the win. Saturday's day game turned ugly for the Yankees pitching. Wang wasn't at his best, but the bullpen was worse as Ramirez, Villone, and Bruney gave up 4 ER in an inning of work combined. Beckett was very solid after giving up a solo shot in the 1st to Jeter. Then onto last night the series ended with a great pitching matchup between Schilling and Clemens. Clemens looked to be in good form, went a full 6 innings and allowing three hits. He had a couple tough spots, but Mientkiwicz stepped in with great glove work and saved some runs. Damon also had a nice sliding catch in left. The difference in the game was Jeter's three run homerun which was certainly a mistake pitch by Schilling. Whatever V Tek discussed with Schilling before that pitch didn't work out. It got very scary in the 9th as Rivera surrendered a run and then with the bases loaded and two outs, Ortiz was jammed and popped up to shallow center to seal the win.


Weekly Stats

W-L: 4-2

RS/RA: 27/25

Offensive Numbers (AVG/OBP/SLG): .213/.307/.396

Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 4.53/3.26/7.61/.228/.295

Who's Hot: Ian Kennedy--another great start to help the Yankees out and hurt his chances of being married in early October

Who's Not: Hideki Matsui--his line this month is .125/.308/.200 0 HR 3 RBI

My Yankee of the Week: Derek Jeter, playing hurt, he had a nice hit against Pappelbon and hit 2 HRs, one the game winner, agains the Red Sox


Foresight: September 17th to September 23rd

It would appear to be an easy schedule this week for the Yankees as they are back at home for the final homestand agains the O's and Blue Jays. My continued barage on the Yankees this year from the time they were aweful up to now has finally been echoed by Joe Torre. These are the teams they need to beat--and if they can't, do they really deserve to be in the playoffs--that's pretty much what he said in an interview this past week.

With two weeks left, these games can't be taken lightly either. The O's are 8-4 versus the Yankees this year and the Yanks aren't exactly killing the Jays either going 8-6 against them. The biggest thing right now are those Tigers who are getting into a nice win streak and are 2 games back in the Wild Card race. Certainly the Yankees and their fans (this one included) don't care about winning the AL East but care more about just getting in the playoffs--and if that happens it will have been quite the turnaround season.

Mel Hall

I had heard of this news back in June, but I just read ex-Yankee Mel Hall was indicted on charges of sexual assault. Another Yankee's life outside baseball ruined...

Speculating Awards: The MVPs

Today I'm discussing my top three candidates for AL and NL MVP. If you read the previous post first, you'll have a better understanding of how I made these assessments which go into my arguments. Following this, I'll discuss the Cy Young and RoY awards within the next week I hope.

Note: The MVP stats are through September 12th.


American League MVP

1. Alex Rodriguez, 3B New York Yankees

Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .317/52/140
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .424/.667
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 92.8/75.7/.344

So far this season has been A-Rod's best in pinstripes and will be one of the top three of his career. Rodriguez leads the AL in HRs, RBIs, runs and slugging percentage, and ranks third in on-base percentage. He also has hit for a solid average, so by the traditional stats A-Rod should the the AL MVP at this point. What do BP's stats tell us though?

Well, A-Rod's VORP (value over replacement player) leads the majors by far. VORP tells us how many runs above a replacement player at A-Rod's position he's contributed. So if Miguel Cairo had played 3B all year and he's your typical replacement player, A-Rod's season produced 92.8 runs above what Cairo would have produced.

He also leads the majors in MLV (marginal lineup value). MLV is an estimate of how many additional runs a player adds if they were in a lineup of average hitters. In other words, if you have a lineup of average hitters, no one adds any more or less to production so the lineups average is zero. But if you put A-Rod in the lineup, he'd raise the offensive production of that lineup by 75.7 runs.

Finally, A-Rod also leads in EqA (Equivalent Average). EqA makes corrections in a players total offensive output given the ballparks they play in, league difficulty, baserunning, but not defense. An average EqA is .260 and A-Rods far above that. Being in a batting average format at .344 A-Rod's offensive production is better than what his traditional batting average tells us.

It would be a shock if A-Rod doesn't win the MVP award. But we already saw how A-Rod was snubbed of the award in 2002. Even so, it may not be unanymous as the runner-up has put up a great season as well.

2. Magglio Ordonez, RF Detroit Tigers

Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .358/27/132
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .430/.595
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 78.0/69.8/.334

No one would have thought Ordonez had a season like this in him. After signing with the Tigers in 2005 having been injured for the previous seasons, most critics considered the signing a huge risk and all but said Ordonez would become a DH pretty soon. That hasn't been the case at all. Last year Ordonez had a nice season for himself and this year has surpassed expectations.

Ordonez leads the AL in batting average, is second in on-base percentage, and is fourth in slugging. By BP's stats he's behind A-Rod in VORP, MLV, and his EqA is a bit lower mainly because of the AL Central being less competitive than the AL East.

All in all, if Ordonez wins the batting crown, gets over 30 HRs, and continues to drive in runs he may have a shot at winning the MVP in the eyes of the voters. It will also make some difference if the Tigers make the playoffs and not the Yankees. But in my view, he falls just short of MVP contention.

3. Jorge Posada, C New York Yankees

Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .338/20/85
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .423/.556
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 67.6/47.8/.324

I hear the grumbling already. What about David Ortiz or Vladimir Guerrero? They are both putting up nice seasons as well and have better traditional stats than Jorge. While I admire Big Papi's hitting--he's only a DH and a DH has never won the MVP no matter how great his offensive production (M's fans would understand this after Edgar Martinez's great seasons as a DH). So while Ortiz is 3rd in VORP (72.0), 3rd in MLV (60.5), first in OBP (.434), and 3rd in SLG (.599)--all MVP worthy numbers--he doesn't play in the field.

As for Vladi, Jorge is better at getting on base (.423 OBP vs .405), has a higher batting average (.338 vs. .327), and they have around the same SLG (.556 Jorge vs. .553 Vladi). By BP's numbers though the bigger differences is in VORP where Vladi's is 58.6, 9 or so runs lower than Jorge'z. It's close by all these numbers, but the big thing for me is that Jorge is a catcher. Most catchers do not put up a season like this one (even in Jorge's case) and that to me makes the case.

Other notable names for MVP consideration in no particular order:
Vlad Guerrero (noted above), Curtis Granderson (3rd player in the 20, 20, 20, 20 club--that 2Bs, 3Bs, HRs, and SBs), Carlos Pena (should get AL Comeback player of the year by all means), and Ichiro Suzuki.

National League MVP

1. Hanley Ramirez, SS Florida Marlins

Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .332/28/72
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .389/.575
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 84.6/56.5/.319

Let me first say in the eyes of the voters Ramirez most likely will not win the MVP, because the Marlins are not a winning team, but there is a point to my picking him. I have not heard his name even mentioned in discussions for the MVP, but he is having a tremendous year after winning the RoY award last year. And to be completely honest, I am sure he will win an MVP at some point in his career just seeing how amazing an all around player he is already.

Let's get to my assessment though. He is 4th in batting average, 4th in slugging, and just makes the top 10 in OBP. He's shown power with 28 HRs which is in the top 10 and is 3rd in stolen bases (46).

Going by BPs stats he is the VORP leader by far (David Wright is second at 72.0). He's also first in MLV, but not by a lot. Those are pretty good indicator of an MVP right there even if he won't drive in 100 RBIs. However, he's the leadoff hitter and 72 RBIs at that spot is pretty good--I'd say he gets 85 or so for the year.

You don't always need 100 RBIs to win the award though. Leadoff hitters have won the award. Remember Rickey Henderson's MVP award? That was in 1990, and although he hit 28 HRs and drove in only 61 RBIs, he beat out Cecil Fielder's 51 HRs and 132 RBIs. He also lead the majors in VORP with 86.2 which was well ahead of Cecil's 61.2. So the voters got it right that year.

So it is possible, except again that the Marlins are in the NL East cellar--the 1990 A's were just the opposite. But that doesn't matter to me--it's an individual award and he's the best in the NL.

2. David Wright, 3B New York Mets

Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .315/28/96
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .412/.542
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 69.5/50.1/.327

Wright's name has come up in MVP discussions and by all likelihood, he'll probably win it. Of course the Mets are probably in the playoffs and he's put up solid numbers having played in a pitcher friendly park. He's tied for 9th in RBIs, 10th in batting average, and 10th in homeruns. While his numbers certainly aren't dominating, they're all around solid and he also gets points for being a respectable player and leader in the league even at a young age.

By BP's numbers, Wright is 2nd in VORP and 7th in MLV (though not far behind Hanley and others). His EqA indicates how much Shea hurts his offensive production during the year. I'll also throw in that he's a top defensive 3Bman.

3. Matt Holliday, LF Colorado Rockies

Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .335/30/119
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .397/.590
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 62.3/52.6/.311

On the surface, Holliday's stats are better than Wright's or even Ramirez's, but remember where he plays (Coors Field). I argue that it's harder to put up good offensive numbers in a pitchers ballpark, which is why Holliday's 3rd.

Even so, Holliday has lower OBP than Wright and a lower VORP. Their MLVs are close, but if you look at Holliday's EqA you can see how much Coors Field impacts his offensive numbers.

Other notable names for MVP consideration in no particular order:
Chipper Jones (solid season considering his age), Miguel Cabrera (putting up another great year despite weight problems), Chase Utley (likely would win it if he didn't get injured), Prince Fielder (following in Dad's steps), and Albert Pujols (worst year of his career).

Speculating Awards: A Primer

Now that we're two weeks or so away from the end of the season, I'm finally ready to begin discussing and speculating who will be baseball's award winners this year (MVP, Cy Young, RoY). Some winners may be clear while others are debatable and I want to throw in my two cents, because my opinion may differ from those who will actually vote for these award next month.

I'm going to do this in three parts because as I started researching and writing this, it was taking a long time and it will be easier to digest for our readers. I'll first discuss the AL and NL MVPs in one entry, then AL and NL Cy Young's, and finally AL and NL Rookie of the Year. I may comment on Gold Gloves, but honestly the way that is awarded is truly a joke.

A Rant: An Introduction on Differences in Evaluating these Awards

First thing's first though--the awards come down to a couple things: 1) a players stats and 2) the team that player played on. It probably also matters that the voters "like" the player too. In any event, stats are the real key here, and traditionally these are the stats each award looks at:

- For MVP - Batting average, Homeruns, Runs Batted in

- For Cy Young - Earned Run Average, Wins, Strikeouts

- For RoY - Same as above if it's a hitter or pitcher

- For Gold Glove - Manager's perception


Many statheads in the baseball community, myself included, do not agree with using the traditional stats as noted above. For one, there are other stats to consider when evaluating a player. If you know about Moneyball for example it made a great case that on-base percentage is pretty darn important. Also, OPS (on-base plus slugging) is another good stat that isn't one the voters really look at for hitters.

The same arugement can be made of pitchers. Wins are a terrible statistic for assessing how well a pitcher pitched. What if the team's offense doesn't give a great pitcher any run support? Look at Kevin Millwood's 2005 season with Cleveland, he went 9-11 but lead the league in ERA (2.86). He got 3.98 runs/game started which was 39th in the AL for pitchers pitching at least 160 innings. Or vice versa what if the pitcher is terrible but the offense bails them out? Last year a pitcher named Jason Marquis won 14 games (losing 16) and had a 6.02 ERA.


But some of the traditional stats are somewhat biased and do not give as accurate a picture of a players performance. For example, players with lots of homeruns and runs batted tend to be batters in the middle (3rd to 5th) of the lineup. Does that mean a leadoff hitter who has a higher AVG, better OBP but less power is less valuable? Or another example--ballpark effects contribute to the raw stats a player puts up--will we ever get a Cy Young pitcher from Colorado--I doubt it.


How well a team does also matters as well. Usually the logic is this--a player is more valuable as long as his team performs better than an average team (or one at .500). Extra kudos tend to go to players on teams that make the playoffs too. For example, take a look at two AL 2002 MVP candidate's stats and then their team records:


.308 AVG/34 HRs/ 131 RBIs/.862 OPS Team record: 103-59
.300 AVG/57 HRs/142 RBIs/1.015 OPS Team record: 72-90


Who won the MVP? The first player Miguel Tejada who was on the 1st place Oakland A's won it, the other is Alex Rodriguez who put up his best power numbers of his career but was on the last place Texas Rangers. So team matters too and that tends to make things murkier when voting.


So when I consider who's an MVP or the best pitcher in baseball, I use other stats--mainly those of Baseball Prospectus, who have a wide range of their own stats that I personally find very valuable. Below are what I use with their definitions linked:

For hitters: VORP, MLV, and EqA.
For pitchers: VORP, BABIP, PERA, Stuff, and SNLVAR.

I'll explain these stats as I assess each award.

I'll get started with the MVPs in a couple days and am only giving my top three. Until then for our readers, how do you assess the awards?

Hindsight and Foresight: Yankee Review September 3rd to September 16th

Now that A-Rod has hit 52HRs and counting, I'd be suprised if he doesn't win the MVP this season. Not that the MVP is all about HRs--he's put up a monster of a season and will be looking for a brand spankin' new contract after this season. At least that's what I think, but I'm saving that discussion for another post.


After some medicrity the last couple of weeks, the Yankees are on a five game tear and more importantly gained ground in the Wild Card standings. Seattle has been flaming out slowly and now stand 5 games back with Detroit trying to pull back into things at 2.5 games back. It's not over yet and though the Yankees remaining schedule concludes with six series, one of which is against a team over .500, we've seen how bad the Yankees can be against teams like Tampa Bay and Baltimore--both of whom count for nine of the remaining 19 games.



Hindsight: September 3rd to September 9th

After losing a series to Tampa Bay at home of all things, Seattle came into town being just a couple of games back in the Wild Card. The first game did not bode well as King Felix (who still hasn't earned his crown in my eyes) shut down the Yankees and Clemens was tatooed and left the game with a bad elbow. But after that the offense woke up as did the pitching. The last two games against Seattle were blowouts with the Yankees outscoring the M's 22 to 5. This series made me think back to the years 1995 to the early 2000s when the M's and Yankees were somewhat rivals (M's beating the Yankees in the 1995 playoffs, but the Yankees stunning a 116 win season for the M's in 2001 to go to the World Series). Same teams but different faces. After the M's the Yanks easily swept the Royals. Pettitte and Wang have been the strong pitchers and won their 14th and 18th games respectively.



Weekly Stats


W-L: 5-1
RS/RA: 43/22
Offensive Numbers (AVG/OBP/SLG): .326/.393/.620
Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 3.00/1.27/5.60/.233/.319


Who's Hot: Alex Rodriguez. Check this out: .579/.652/1.684 for a 2.336 OPS. 7 HRs and 10 RBIs to boot.


Who's Not: Hideki Matsui struggled with an 0-20 slump or something like that.


My Yankee of the Week: Phil Hughes put together a good performance. I've heard he's hard on himself, which I can definetely sympathize with, but Phil you're great keep doing what you do.


Foresight: September 10th to September 16th

Back up to Toronto where tempers may flare again and then...FENWAY!! I can't offer a prediction here on the Red Sox series other than it will probably be intense. This is the last time they will play this year in the regular season and the AL East race is still between either team. We'll see some great pitching matchups though: Game 1 Pettitte v. Dice K, Game 2 Wang v. Beckett, and Game 3 Hughes v. Schilling.


For a funny read, check out this story on Wade Boggs that a friend of mind sent me.

Finally, for any baseball fan, I recommend going to PNC Park in Pittsburgh at some point (or before they build another new stadium). I just went there this weekend for my first time. It's a great ballpark even though I had to sit in detour traffic for 2 hours to make it. Oh and you'll have to watch the Pirtates play no matter what.

Bag O'Stuff

To start things off, I'd like to congratulate Bruce, a fellow Yankee fan, UMass softball teammate, and blogger for 567 Miles from Home for guessing the correct answer to my trivia question from last post--who was the last Yankee to hit at least 50 homeruns in a season?

There were actually two correct answers so either counted. The year was 1961 when Roger Maris hit 61 homeruns and Mickey Mantle hit 54. Bruce guessed Mantle proving his knowledge of Yankee history and not showing any signs of being a bandwagon fan. Good job my man!

Of course since the post on Monday regarding A-Rod reaching 50 HRs he's hit 3 in as many games include two last night all in one inning of work with a bad ankle. If he continues to hit like this, he could possibly match his career high 57 HRs which he set back in 2002 while with Texas.


But I'll get to A-Rod more in another post that I keep putting off to write...onto other Yankee news.



Playoffs and Injuries Could Ruin Wedding Plans


Baseball is a game of luck in many instances and as luck would have it, if the Yankees make the playoffs and the starting rotation isn't 100% Ian Kennedy's wedding plans may be on hold. Ironically for Kennedy I'm sure he didn't expect to zip through the minor leagues as he has this year and is taking the place of Mussina/Clemens in the rotation for now. But whatever happens, I'm sure he'll get married and the Yankees will shove wedding cake in his face.


Clemens Done After '07?

Rumors surround Roger Clemens making an '08 return to the diamond. Now that he has an elbow injury it may be a sign that he needs to hang 'em up for good. Overall, Clemens has been okay but his strikeout rate is down and from what I heard on Baseball Tonight, his close friends have said Roger is really pushing it this season.

My take is that he'll do his usual mulling about it, seeing how his body is in the offseason and not deciding on anything until 2008. I won't say whether he'll come back or not for sure because we have to see how his elbow holds up the rest of the way.

Football Predictions

Football season starts to day and while this is not a football blog I will offer my predictions below:

NFC East Cowboys
NFC North Chicago
NFC South New Orleans
NFC West St. Louis
Wild Card Eagles

AFC East Pats
AFC North Cincinnati
AFC South Colts
AFC West San Diego
Wild Card Ravens

Super Bowl St. Louis vs San Diego
Winner San Diego

Hindsight and Foresight: Yankees Review August 27th to September 10th

There was a great piece this week by Buster Olney about how Cashman's plan for rebuilding the Yankees is just getting started. We've seen bits and pieces of the Yankees' young talent in Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Melky Cabrera, and Robinson Cano. And luckily it has come together this second half because afterall Cashman was "on the hook" only a few months ago.

It's hard to say if the Yankees will make the playoffs after last week's performance. The great part was the sweep of the Red Sox at home. The worst part was watching them get beat out by the Devil Rays immediately afterwards. I really don't understand how this team keeps losing to some of the worst teams in baseball. They can't afford to be losing with just a month to go--especially when teams like Detroit and Seattle have been struggling this second half. Let's get to the review though...

Hindsight: August 27th to September 2nd
Well, since the 14th this month, the Yankees are 10-10 so obviously they're encountering some struggles of late. But as the Red Sox came into Yankee Stadium last week, I think I said it would be a toss up series. Now that it's said and done, it was the Yankees pitching and some key clutch hits that won the series for the Yankees. It also didn't help the Red Sox that Manny Ramirez injured himself and they're unsure when he'll be back.

Just a comment on the Red Sox, it's been a different story this year watching Manny and Big Papi struggle after 3+ years as the greatest 3 and 4 guys in the lineup in baseball. I know Big Papi has some sort of knee injury, but Manny's struggles before his injury have been a mystery to me.

Back to the series of The Rivalry though, the Yankees pitching dominated--there were no-hitters taken into the 6th and 7th innings by Clemens and Wang--but I say so what, the Red Sox Offense just didn't show up scoring only six runs the entire series. Everything looked back on track until Tampa Bay came into town and beat up on the Yankees pitching.

Weekly Stats

W-L: 4-3
RS/RA: 26/45
Offensive Numbers (AVG/OBP/SLG): .235/.301/.372
Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 5.81/1.66/7.40/.282/.529

Who's Hot: Chien-Ming Wang--I've been talking up his durability, stamina, etc. Is he a Cy Young Contender again?

Who's Not: Sean Henn--please send him down again...

My Yankee of the Week: Mike Mussina. Last week's Who's Not hot is on here because he gave an interview honestly saying he was not happy to be taken out of the rotation for a start and then describing his pitching troubles of late. It didn't sound good, but he knows he's not on his game and it could be beacuse his hammy's a bit weak.

Foresight: September 3rd to September 10th
Seattle comes into town for three games. Seeing that the Mariners have the longest losing streak all season seems to say are having worse issues than the Yankees right now and it's the best opportunity for the Yankees to solidify ground in the Wild Card standings. After that they head out to Kansas City--an easy team by the standings--but who the hell knows what could happen. With four weeks left, if there's any sort of good winning streak left in the Yankees it has to start this week. They can distance themselves in the standings but as we all know the offense needs to come back together and the pitching needs to hold up.


On a final note...

Here's a bit of trivia for the week. Alex Rodriguez may hit 50 homeruns this year as a Yankee--who was the last Yankee to do that (who played the entire season for the Yankees)?

Be honest and don't look it up. Please send us a reply to rivalryredux@gmail.com Sorry we have no prize, but we'll mention you on here and give you mad kudos for your knowledge (Doug's answer doesn't count).

Hindsight and Foresight: Yankee Review August 20th to September 3rd

This is coming later than I'd like. The past two months have been brutal at work, but I won't get into that. The Yankees had a rough week in Detroit and LA and head into the Red Sox series 8 games out. They are also behind the Mariners in the Wild Card race by 2 games. This is definetely the stretch run when if you're close to getting in the playoffs, the games seem even more important than before. And the Yankees are going to fight every game of the way back into this thing.

Hindsight: August 20th to August 26th
The Yankees lost both the Detroit and Angels series to bad pitching for the most part. Mike Mussina has been horrendous of late and could be fading out with the season. Sean Henn also got shelled when he came in. Garrett Anderson manhandeled the Yankees this past week getting 10 RBIs in one game tying a major league record. All in all the Yankees lost ground in the standings.


Weekly stats

W-L: 2-4

RS/RA: 40/43

Offensive Numbers (AVG/OBP/SLG): .293/.357/.490

Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 7.67/1.69/7.17/.286/.512

Who's Hot: Alex Rodriguez, hittin' homers again and making an MVP run again.

Who's Not: Mike Mussina, looks like he's fading out as the season ends.

My Yankee of the Week: Chien Ming-Wang. He's been consistent all season and can go 7 IP before being taken out.

Foresight: August 20th to September 3rd
Heading back home the Yankees face Boston for three games before welcoming the Devil Rays. If any ground will be made up, it's against the Red Sox but by the way the Yankees of played at late it's a toss up. The best matchup will be Clemens against Beckett with Wang Schilling being the second best.

I don't have much more to say other than I haven't been watching many games of late with my schedule. That's a pretty bad excuse now that the Yankees are playing well, but considering when I was watching a lot, they sucked.

here we go again...

As inexcusable as my absence from this space has been, there's no way I could get away with not sounding in on the upcoming War to End All Wars, otherwise known as the next Sox-Yankees series.

The Red Sox are coming off a series where they scored horse amounts of runs against the White Sox. The pitching was solid, and the bullpen was given a rest. If this was any other team playing any other team than you would have to say that the Red Sox are looking good coming into this series.

Considering the Yankees' utter decapitation of the Red Sox over a 5-game stretch last year, I'm not counting on anything. The Sox currently hold a 7.5 game lead over the Yankees, and there are six games left between the two teams. Beyond those matchups, both teams also have a lot of mouth-watering Tampa Bay, Toronto, and Baltimore matchups.

So, to state the obvious, these games will be important.

This first series will feature playoff-like pitching matchups: Dice-K/Pettite, Beckett/Clemens, Schilling/Wang.

(Come to think of it, each matchup has a former Astro involved as well)

Boston scored buckets of runs against the White Sox, but everyone's been doing that this year. The Yankees are scoring buckets of runs against everyone.

I'm going to hold off on making specific predictions and try to react more on a game-by-game basis throughout the week.

What I'd like to see is the Sox take at least 2 out of 3 this time around as well as next September, but again, I'm not calling it a prediction.

This could wind up being one of those great heroes and goats series...

Hindsight and Foresight: Yankees Review August 13th to August 26th

It was great to be back at Yankee Stadium this weekend. One because it seems having only been to two games this year I got to see Roger Clemens announce he was coming back at the first and he pitched well at the second. But more importantly I went to the game with my Dad who hadn't been to the Stadium in years and enjoyed it. My Dad took me to my first Yankee's game when I was seven, and it might be his last time there, so it was good to hang out with him.

The Yankees hit a bit of a skid this week, but recovered nicely against Detroit at home. The upcoming schedule is rough as they head to Anaheim or Los Angeles or California or wherever the Angels are these days and Detroit. They Yankees are 4.5 games behind and we're setting the Rivalry clock down here to 8 days, which is when Boston heads to NY.

Hindsight: August 13th to August 19th
The Orioles have given the Yankees trouble all season and that continued--they are now 4-8 against them this season. Jeff Karstens was rocked on Tuesday to a 12-0 loss where Daniel Cabrera uncharacteristically blanked the Yanks. More problems occured for Mo Rivera the next day. After having been shutout for 17 innings straight, Shelly Duncan was clutch and tied the game at 3-3 in the bottom of the ninth. But Rivera came in gave up a RBI double and a two run homer to lose it. Verlander then stopped up the Yankees offense the next night, but after that the Yankees took the series against the Tigers handidly with pitching gems by Pettitte, Clemens and Wang. Rivera dominated on Saturday for his 20th save.

Weekly Stats

W-L: 4-3
RS/RA: 35/38
Offensive Nubmers (BA/OBP/SLG): .295/.375/.436
Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 4.99/1.40/6.60/.283/.437

Who's Hot: Bobby Abreu hit well this week adding 3 HRs to his total.

Who's Not: Mariano Rivera. It's hard to put his name in there, but he blew the lead twice this week and didn't look good until Saturday.

My Yankee of the Week: Kyle Farnsworth. Yeah, here's why. He came into Saturday's game to boos and I figured the Tigers would just come back to tie it. But he ended up having a one-two-three inning, striking out Magglio Ordonez and Gary Sheffield back to back, leaving to cheers.

Foresight: August 20th to August 26th
The other Yankee's rival since 2002 welcomes them to Cali and then another four game series up in Detroit. Yankees fans got their boos in for Sheffield this past weekend and I'm sure Detroit will hear it from the east coast. There will be a great matchup on Saturday with Wang going against Bonderman. This past week the Yankees offense snoozed a bit, nearly getting shut out two games in a row and Rivera struggled. But this seems like a bump in a road. This next week will show the Yankees why they are at 70-54 as they play two top teams in the AL.

Double Standards

Jason Giambi who clearly admitted he'd been on steroids in the past came away a free man from any form of punishment yesterday by Bud Selig. During the course of this entire saga, I've been a bit confused what the line of thinking has been concerning steroid policy for a player who did not test positive, but openly admitted (in good faith) he had done so in the past.

Giambi may be a special case. In 2004 he opened the season by apologizing to fans and then this year gave an interview admitting his past use in more detail. Immediately following this, the controversy was around whether Giambi should be punished and speak to the Mitchell Investigation, which he did.

The one thing I don't completely understand about all of this is why Giambi would possibly be punished in the first place. On the one hand, he did criticize baseball for the entire Steroid Era, but on the other hand, what's wrong with regretting your past and coming to terms with it? To me, all of this is was just politics to get Giambi to speak with Mitchell since that entire investigation seems to be going nowhere.

But would the same process occur if another player came forward and said they'd taken steroids in the past? What if Gary Sheffield, who's outspoken on everything from contracts to racism to steroids, came out and said, "yeah that clear stuff I took was 'roids"? I don't think he'd go through the same process. I think the process is a case-by-case basis.

In any event though, why aren't the players from the minors up to the majors who have been caught not talking with the Mitchell Investigation? The sport still has players taking enhancements and no one really understands why it happened and continues to. I know baseball's policy is "trying" to catch cheaters and make the sport cleaner, but why is it that someone who is caught doesn't have to be questioned about it?

Is it in the Cards again?

Having not paid a whole lot of attention to the standings besides the AL East, I took a look today to see that the NL Central is becoming a tight race. We wrote on here way back in May about the Milwaukee Brewers and how exciting it is to see a team who hasn't been good for quite some time seriously rebuild the last few years and put together some top young talent. In my midseason review, I stated that the Brewers would be able to hold their own--which is the equivalent of saying they had the division wrapped up. But now it's starting to look like I could be wrong.

For one, the Cubs have made a decent comeback. But the team that has me wondering is the Cardinals--the defending World Series Champions. A look back to the records of Milwaukee, Chicago, and St. Louis on May 31st and how they've done since then will show what I'm talking about:

Milwaukee 30-24, 32-34 since 5/31
Chicago 22-29, 38-30 since 5/31
St. Louis 22-29, 35-31 since 5/31

St. Louis hasn't been as good as the Cubs, but Milwaukee's sub-.500 record currently puts the Cards 3.5 games out of first place. Last year the NL Central followed a similar story where the Cardinals were hot out of the gate and then had a horrendous finish to the season. The caveat to it was the Houston Astros who on this date last year were 57-63 and 6.5 games out, but came within half a game on 9/28/06 of the first place Cardinals.

So my question is, are the Cardinals this years Houston Astros? And could they feasibly make a run at the NL Central title?

Scooter

Today is a sad day in Yankee land as Phil "Scooter" Rizzuto passed away this morning at the age of 89. While the link will provide details about his playing and broadcasting career, I wanted to offer my thoughts about Scooter.

There are three reasons why I became a Yankee fan: 1) I always loved baseball since I was a kid, 2) Don Mattingly, and 3) Phil Rizzuto. Before there was the YES Network Yankees games were featured on WPIX-NY, which was channel 11, and MSG Network, which was channel 10 (at least this was the case in NJ where I grew up). Phil Rizzuto broadcasted for WPIX-NY. I can remember from the time I was about age seven up into high school, I watched the Yankees on these channels and Phil Rizzuto was the first baseball broadcaster who connected with me even as a young fan.

Besides his "Holy Cow" cry anytime there was an exciting play, Phil Rizzuto was always a genuine broadcaster who loved the game and especially Yankees history--which he was a part of. Being so young and watching my firstYankees games, Scooter was always like a grandfather figure as a broadcaster to me, because he always had fun stories to tell about the Yankee greats, past dynasties, and the history of the team. Scooter embedded in me what it means to be a true Yankee fan even when the team at the time hardly resembled the great teams of the past.

Before his passing today, when I caught a Yankees game on the YES Network or even FOX I would sometimes think about Scooter and wish he'd broadcast just one more for us all. There was always something special about his approach in the booth and though I've missed it since he last called a game in 1996, I will miss it even more after today.

Hindsight and Foresight: Yankees Review August 6th to August 19th

Free at last! My conference is over and while I haven't been able to catch the Yankees of late, they are still the hottest team in baseball. We are now seeing an exciting AL East race where a little over a month ago no such thing existed. But it ain't over til it's over or at least until the fat lady sings and we still have seven weeks of baseball left. In regards to Doug's comments about Boston writers saying the Yankees were over back in May and June, he doesn't need to look any further than me who had serious doubts about the Yankees this year. But for the record, I never wrote them off saying at the All-Star break:

"Rather than trying to win the AL East this year, the Yankees need to set their sights on climbing up in the Wild Card standings if they want to push for the playoffs"

but also stated

"I'm not downplaying the possibility that the Yankees could come back and make the World Series this year. It's possible, but quite unlikely. I figured a season like this would happen one year or another where the Yankees are a team of superstars, many past their prime or entering the downturn in their careers, and suddenly a lot of them have off years, get injured, etc and it all shows in their record."

I'm definetely not going to take back what I said about my doubts. All that was going wrong can still come back and hurt their chances down the stretch. So while Boston writers and some fans wrote the Yankees off early on, we certainly can't write them into the playoffs just yet, because it's going to be very close and they have some tough teams ahead. That is not doubt talking, that is just reality.

Hindsight: August 6th to August 12th

The last time we saw A-Rod getting into it with someone was back in 2004 with V-Tek. Everyone knew that Toronto was going to bean A-Rod and A-Rod probably knew how he was going to react. Unfortunately the first throw at A-Rod missed him and went behind him, so they drilled him the next day instead. Bean wars are a part of the game, I don't condone them, but it's one of the few choices teams have to retaliate. Of course they cost players and managers games when they go too far, so Clemens will sit for five and Torre sat his one game. But the Yankees rolled through Toronto, though Wang and Co. got shelled on Wednesday and went into Cleveland where the Indians played poorly. Hughes pitched a brilliant game as did Mussina. Cleveland had a rally going late on Sunday, but fell short to Rivera who struggled early coming in but then struck out Cabrera and Sizemore. The nice addition to the Yankes this week was Joba Chamberlain who's really in a groove.

Weekly Stats

W-L: 5-1
RS/RA: 40/27
Offensive Numbers (BA/OBP/SLG): .338/.389/.572
Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 3.90/1.30/8.74/.260/.386

Who's Hot: Melky Cabrera, who's got a 17 game hitting streak and hit .440 this week.
Who's Not: Chien Ming Wang pitched his worst outting ever (I believe), just 2 2/3 IP and 8ERs.
My Yankee of the Week: Joba Chamberlain has been lights out. It was only four innings, but he struck out six in those innings with some heat and nice offspeed stuff. Fun stuff to watch!

Foresight: August 13th to August 19th
The Yankees start a homestand with three against the O's and then three against Detroit. Sheff will return to the Bronx on Friday and I'll be at the game Saturday to see how the reaction is to him. The Detroit series will also have the two leading candidates for MVP--A-Rod and Magglio Ordonez--go up against each other. So far this year the Yankees are 23-7 against the AL Central division (KC helped) and Detroit has been around .500 since the All-Star break, so they could make some upward movement in the standings (AL East and Wild Card). Going beyond the 19th though the Yankees face some tough teams through the end of August including the Angels and Red Sox. They should be glad for their hot start because they have the upperhand in the AL right now.

just a quick one

Six games. Six games? SIX GAMES?

Now is the time for all good New England columnists (I'm looking at you, Dan Shaugnessy) to scold everyone who wrote the Yankees off back in May. The fact that these columnists were the same people who were so eager to declare the Yankees D.O.A. a few months ago doesn't matter - what matters is being able to write doom and gloom stories about the Red Sox and the inevitability of another Yankee triumph.

I don't really have any interest in going there - there's still a lot of baseball to be played by both the Red Sox and Yankees before the end of the season. The Sox have the pitching to succeed in the postseason, which the Yankees don't, but the Yankees may very well mash their way into the postseason if they continue to put up Football scores.

So Barry Bonds broke Aaron's record, and everyone is all boo-hoo because Henry Aaron was such a class act, and Bonds is such a jerk, and isn't this the worst thing that has ever happened in the entirety of Western Civilization?

People were upset when Aaron passed Ruth, but that had more to do with racism. Today, people would probably celebrate it due to the fact that Aaron is a great guy, and Ruth was a boozing, womanizing boor.

I get a kick out of the fact that people are already counting down to A-Rod surpassing Bonds, which is acceptable because A-Rod is what the french call un jerk au naturale. Sure, he's been convicted of one cheap play (the Arroyo wrist slap) and indicted for another ("Mine!", "Ha!", whatever) and he's self-important, arrogant, alienates his teammates, and is ridiculously overpaid, BUT no one has ever accused him of juicing.

Now, that's what I call a hero!

It's curious that people care so much about liking the man who holds an important record. I mean, Nolan Ryan would drill his own grandmother in the skull if he thought she was crowding the plate, but no one says boo about his all-time strikeout record.

The guys who are 1-2 on the all-time hit list are a player banned from baseball due to gambling on his own team and a virulent racist who once pistol-whipped a man to death. Where's the outrage there?

A recent SI poll of active players showed that Tigers' first baseman Sean Casey is the nicest/best-liked player in baseball by an overwhelming margin. The solution to the ethical conundrum of who holds important records is simple: invalidate the statistics of every active, former, and future major league player who surpasses Casey in Hits, Runs, Doubles, Triples, Home Runs, RBIs, Walks, and Stolen Bases, making "The Mayor" the all-time leader in each category.

No one will have to quibble with someone they personally dislike holding a major record then, right?