Speculating Awards: The MVPs

Today I'm discussing my top three candidates for AL and NL MVP. If you read the previous post first, you'll have a better understanding of how I made these assessments which go into my arguments. Following this, I'll discuss the Cy Young and RoY awards within the next week I hope.

Note: The MVP stats are through September 12th.


American League MVP

1. Alex Rodriguez, 3B New York Yankees

Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .317/52/140
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .424/.667
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 92.8/75.7/.344

So far this season has been A-Rod's best in pinstripes and will be one of the top three of his career. Rodriguez leads the AL in HRs, RBIs, runs and slugging percentage, and ranks third in on-base percentage. He also has hit for a solid average, so by the traditional stats A-Rod should the the AL MVP at this point. What do BP's stats tell us though?

Well, A-Rod's VORP (value over replacement player) leads the majors by far. VORP tells us how many runs above a replacement player at A-Rod's position he's contributed. So if Miguel Cairo had played 3B all year and he's your typical replacement player, A-Rod's season produced 92.8 runs above what Cairo would have produced.

He also leads the majors in MLV (marginal lineup value). MLV is an estimate of how many additional runs a player adds if they were in a lineup of average hitters. In other words, if you have a lineup of average hitters, no one adds any more or less to production so the lineups average is zero. But if you put A-Rod in the lineup, he'd raise the offensive production of that lineup by 75.7 runs.

Finally, A-Rod also leads in EqA (Equivalent Average). EqA makes corrections in a players total offensive output given the ballparks they play in, league difficulty, baserunning, but not defense. An average EqA is .260 and A-Rods far above that. Being in a batting average format at .344 A-Rod's offensive production is better than what his traditional batting average tells us.

It would be a shock if A-Rod doesn't win the MVP award. But we already saw how A-Rod was snubbed of the award in 2002. Even so, it may not be unanymous as the runner-up has put up a great season as well.

2. Magglio Ordonez, RF Detroit Tigers

Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .358/27/132
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .430/.595
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 78.0/69.8/.334

No one would have thought Ordonez had a season like this in him. After signing with the Tigers in 2005 having been injured for the previous seasons, most critics considered the signing a huge risk and all but said Ordonez would become a DH pretty soon. That hasn't been the case at all. Last year Ordonez had a nice season for himself and this year has surpassed expectations.

Ordonez leads the AL in batting average, is second in on-base percentage, and is fourth in slugging. By BP's stats he's behind A-Rod in VORP, MLV, and his EqA is a bit lower mainly because of the AL Central being less competitive than the AL East.

All in all, if Ordonez wins the batting crown, gets over 30 HRs, and continues to drive in runs he may have a shot at winning the MVP in the eyes of the voters. It will also make some difference if the Tigers make the playoffs and not the Yankees. But in my view, he falls just short of MVP contention.

3. Jorge Posada, C New York Yankees

Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .338/20/85
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .423/.556
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 67.6/47.8/.324

I hear the grumbling already. What about David Ortiz or Vladimir Guerrero? They are both putting up nice seasons as well and have better traditional stats than Jorge. While I admire Big Papi's hitting--he's only a DH and a DH has never won the MVP no matter how great his offensive production (M's fans would understand this after Edgar Martinez's great seasons as a DH). So while Ortiz is 3rd in VORP (72.0), 3rd in MLV (60.5), first in OBP (.434), and 3rd in SLG (.599)--all MVP worthy numbers--he doesn't play in the field.

As for Vladi, Jorge is better at getting on base (.423 OBP vs .405), has a higher batting average (.338 vs. .327), and they have around the same SLG (.556 Jorge vs. .553 Vladi). By BP's numbers though the bigger differences is in VORP where Vladi's is 58.6, 9 or so runs lower than Jorge'z. It's close by all these numbers, but the big thing for me is that Jorge is a catcher. Most catchers do not put up a season like this one (even in Jorge's case) and that to me makes the case.

Other notable names for MVP consideration in no particular order:
Vlad Guerrero (noted above), Curtis Granderson (3rd player in the 20, 20, 20, 20 club--that 2Bs, 3Bs, HRs, and SBs), Carlos Pena (should get AL Comeback player of the year by all means), and Ichiro Suzuki.

National League MVP

1. Hanley Ramirez, SS Florida Marlins

Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .332/28/72
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .389/.575
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 84.6/56.5/.319

Let me first say in the eyes of the voters Ramirez most likely will not win the MVP, because the Marlins are not a winning team, but there is a point to my picking him. I have not heard his name even mentioned in discussions for the MVP, but he is having a tremendous year after winning the RoY award last year. And to be completely honest, I am sure he will win an MVP at some point in his career just seeing how amazing an all around player he is already.

Let's get to my assessment though. He is 4th in batting average, 4th in slugging, and just makes the top 10 in OBP. He's shown power with 28 HRs which is in the top 10 and is 3rd in stolen bases (46).

Going by BPs stats he is the VORP leader by far (David Wright is second at 72.0). He's also first in MLV, but not by a lot. Those are pretty good indicator of an MVP right there even if he won't drive in 100 RBIs. However, he's the leadoff hitter and 72 RBIs at that spot is pretty good--I'd say he gets 85 or so for the year.

You don't always need 100 RBIs to win the award though. Leadoff hitters have won the award. Remember Rickey Henderson's MVP award? That was in 1990, and although he hit 28 HRs and drove in only 61 RBIs, he beat out Cecil Fielder's 51 HRs and 132 RBIs. He also lead the majors in VORP with 86.2 which was well ahead of Cecil's 61.2. So the voters got it right that year.

So it is possible, except again that the Marlins are in the NL East cellar--the 1990 A's were just the opposite. But that doesn't matter to me--it's an individual award and he's the best in the NL.

2. David Wright, 3B New York Mets

Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .315/28/96
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .412/.542
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 69.5/50.1/.327

Wright's name has come up in MVP discussions and by all likelihood, he'll probably win it. Of course the Mets are probably in the playoffs and he's put up solid numbers having played in a pitcher friendly park. He's tied for 9th in RBIs, 10th in batting average, and 10th in homeruns. While his numbers certainly aren't dominating, they're all around solid and he also gets points for being a respectable player and leader in the league even at a young age.

By BP's numbers, Wright is 2nd in VORP and 7th in MLV (though not far behind Hanley and others). His EqA indicates how much Shea hurts his offensive production during the year. I'll also throw in that he's a top defensive 3Bman.

3. Matt Holliday, LF Colorado Rockies

Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .335/30/119
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .397/.590
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 62.3/52.6/.311

On the surface, Holliday's stats are better than Wright's or even Ramirez's, but remember where he plays (Coors Field). I argue that it's harder to put up good offensive numbers in a pitchers ballpark, which is why Holliday's 3rd.

Even so, Holliday has lower OBP than Wright and a lower VORP. Their MLVs are close, but if you look at Holliday's EqA you can see how much Coors Field impacts his offensive numbers.

Other notable names for MVP consideration in no particular order:
Chipper Jones (solid season considering his age), Miguel Cabrera (putting up another great year despite weight problems), Chase Utley (likely would win it if he didn't get injured), Prince Fielder (following in Dad's steps), and Albert Pujols (worst year of his career).