2008 Rivalry Begins Tonight

Over the next week the Yankees and Red Sox will play each other five times--three games up at Fenway and two in the Bronx next week. Going into both series, there are some key injuries/bumps/bruises that could impact the outcomes of the games. On the Yankees side, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada are day-to-day and for the Sox Mike Lowell just went to the DL and Cora (not impact at all) and Timlin are both day-to-day.

What can I say differently about the rivalry this year? Well, yet again for the second time in four years the Yankees are looking up at a team who won the World Series. And last year was the first time since 1997 that the Yankees lost the AL East title. So, from both standpoints there is something to prove again: that the Red Sox are better than the Yankees and that the Yankees want to reclaim what is theirs.

The rivalry this year could be fun when the young pitchers on both sides potentially face off against each other. Wouldn't a Chamberlain/Bucholz matchup be great? How about debating who the better centerfielder is, Ellsbury or Melky? These new faces on both sides are potentially future greats who will compete against each other for years to come for the same reasons as before.

I'm not going to make any predictions, like who wins these series or if a bean ball war will start. To put it simply the rivalry is different than it once was now that the Red Sox are the team to beat and looking like the better team this decade so far. I'll be watching and hope you all enjoy it as much as I will.

Worst Start to Season: 1988 Baltimore Orioles

So I looked up what team had the worst record to start the regular season and it was the 1988 Baltimore Orioles. The team lost 21 in a row to start the season, finally winning a game on April 29th, 1988. By the end of the season, the team was 54-107 and in dead last in the American League.

It's interesting to note who was on that team--this took me down memory lane a bit. The team was managed by Frank Robinson and taken over by Cal Ripken, Sr for the final six games. Some key players to note were:

Cal Ripken, Jr (27 at the time)
his brother Billy
Eddie Murray
Mickey Tettleton (who became a masher and OBP later in his career)
Fred Lynn (the first player to win RoY and MVP in the same season)
Joe Orsulak (he just had an interesting last name to me)
A young Brady Anderson
Mike Boddicker (only starting pitcher posting an ERA under 4.00 that year)
Mike Morgan (pre-journeyman days)
and Curt Schilling (who was a 21 year old rookie)

I don't expect the same fates for the Tigers. They've already had two 100+ loss seasons in 2002 and 2003 (losing 119 that year) this decade and are better than that now.

Some Notes on Our Blog/Reader Response

With the season in full swing I wanted to put some notes out there on what to expect from Doug and myself.

I suppose I should start with Doug first, the Red Sox writer on here. He doesn't have internet and just hasn't been able to post for a while. But he promises us he will be posting this season.

As for me, I'm going to write as much as I can considering I'm busier than last year especially at work. I've decided to change the "Hindsight and Foresight" posts that were weekly last year on a monthly basis. This will help to determine more big picture trends on the Yankees season and give me a better sample size to work from when analyzing player's statistics. I'll have my first one the beggining of May.

To any of our readers though, ask us questions or post comments on here. We can also be emailed at rivalyredux@gmail.com We'll even take non-Yankee/Red Sox questions. This is baseball, so there's always something to debate even if it's baseball history.

Reader Response

I thought I'd respond to our reader Rashad's comment that the Tigers are making him nervous. If you aren't looking at the standings yet, the Tigers are the worst team in baseball accoring to their 0-7 record. Should we be concerned this early? Probably not too much, unless they end up having the worst start ever in baseball history--and I'd have to look up what that was--then they'd have to make up a lot of ground.

What this may come down to for the Tigers is that the team needs to learn to gel better. With new players and some key injuries it's a matter of team chemistry. The Tigers are a very talented team on both sides of the ball and their management has put a top team on the field, so I think it's just a matter of time until they go on a huge tear.

Belated Predictions

I had these in my head and thought I'd throw them out although we're a week into the season. These are my predictions for the 2008 baseball season all around the majors.

Let's start with the big question, whose going to the playoffs and who will win the enchilada?

The road there...

AL
East: Red Sox
Central: Tigers
West: Mariners
Wild Card: Yankees

NL
East: Mets
Central: Brewers
West: Diamondbacks
Wild Card: Braves

Playoffs:
ALDS
Detroit Tigers over New York Yankees in 4 games
Boston Red Sox over Seattle Mariners in 4 games

NLDS
New York Mets over Arizona Diamondbacks in 4 games
Atlanta Braves over Milwaukee Brewers in 5

ALCS
Detroit Tigers over Boston Red Sox in 6 games

NLCS
Atlanta Braves over New York Mets in 7 games

World Series
Detroit Tigers over Atlanta Braves in 5 games

And the award goes to...

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP: David Wright
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy
AL RoY: Jacoby Ellsbury
NL RoY: Joey Votto

Yankee Player-by-Player Review and Preview

Player-by-Player Review/Preview

Projected Yankee lineup:
1. Damon LF/DH
2. Jeter SS
3. Abreu RF
4. A-Rod 3B
5. Matsui DH/LF
6. Posada C
7. Giambi 1B
8. Cano 2B
9. Cabrera CF

Key Bench: Duncan, Ensberg, Betemit

Johnny Damon '07 .270/.351/.396 '08 .276/.369/.424
(by the way, I am making the '08 projection completely up)

Damon was banged up most of 2007, lost his spot in center, and posted his lowest slugging percentage since 2001. Damon is past his peak years and looks more and more fragile with every swing and throw. He at least has a decent batting eye and should try to take more walks as he ages.

Derek Jeter '07 .322/.388/.452 '08 .315/.375/.442

We're either seeing a resurgance of Jeter the last two years or just a lead in to him fading out...slowly. Jeter will still hit well and has the sweetest in out, drive the ball the other way swing. His number may dip a bit this year--just a guess given he's 34 now.

Bobby Abreu '07 .283/.369/.445 '08 .298/.396/.440

Abreu had an awful first couple of months and his OBP suffered tremendously due to that (almost 30 points below his career). Given Abreu is in a walk year, is 34, and doesn't hit homeruns much--his SLG will continue to dip though I think he will boost his average to right around his career mark. It will be interesting whether Abreu is re-signed or not. The only players I'd consider the Yankees going after are Vladi (if his option is declined), Carl Crawford (same thing), Adam Dunn (terrible in the field though), or Manny (option).

Alex Rodriguez '07 .314/.422/.645 '08 .295/.405/.578

Putting my A-Fraud bashing from the offseason aside, part of me is looking forward to seeing what A-Rod can do as a Yankee for life now. He has a lot of redeeming to do. The biggest question I have is--is this an on year for A-Rod or an off-year? There's a pattern as a Yankee--'04, off-year; '05, MVP; '06 off-year; '07 MVP. Which A-Rod will show up this year? Last year was arguable his best of his career and I think it's hard to top. My guess is we won't get an MVP A-Rod, but someone not as bad as in '04 and '06 (and they weren't bad, but relative to his career and ages those year, not his best). I'd expect the power number to be 40-45 HRs, 120-135 RBIs. The real question for all fans is--can A-Rod hit in the playoffs?

Hideki Matsui '07 .285/.367/.488 '08 .280/.383/.496

Matsui put up a decent season despite a slow start. He's going to DH more and likely be more in a hitters mindset and not have to worry about playing the OF too much. I think Matsui is starting to fade a tad and I'd expect another year typical of 2007s. He hasn't been the Godzilla HR he was in Japan, but has been consistent in putting up at least 20 HRs and driving in 100 RBIs in full seasons.

Jorge Posada '07 .338/.426/.543 '08 .282/.386/.476

Well, there goes the career year. Expect things to be more normal along career numbers. He may not hit 20 HRs, but he'll get on base and as a catcher should be interesting to watch with the young guns. But more and more speedsters will take advatage of his poor catcher arm.

Jason Giambi '07.236/.356/.433 '08 .265/.423/.525

This has to be Giambi's last year as a Yankee and unfortunately for all the mystique and aura he spoke of in 2001, he won't be getting a ring. Probably the bad kharma. Giambi's taking over firstbase I hear and I read some stats somewhere that he hits better when playing the field than DHing. How many runs will he give up with his glove--quite a few. He may also get injured and miss quite a few games. If healthy though, we may get a season reminiscent of 2005 after he came back from an injury--don't expect more than 32 HRs though.

Robinson Cano '07 .306/.353/.488 '08 .335/.363/.492

Cano is my favorite Yankee right now and I'm expecting a solid season from him. He showed last year he could hit HRs and drive in runs (97 RBIs). I think he could hit 23 HRs and could drive in 80-95 runs. But as everyone keeps saying, he'll be in the mix for a batting title and this year he will be--a good candidate to get 200 hits.

Melky Cabrera '07 .273/.327/.391 '08 .282/.331/.402

Is this a growing up year for Melky? I believe so. He's still very young at 23 and approaching his prime. I can't figure out what sort of player he will be. He's got a decent eye and isn't a free swinger. Despite the patience he hasn't shown much power. What's interesting is his comparables in BP and on baseball-reference.com. In BPs 2008 annual one of his comparables is Carlos Beltran while another is Pete Rose--two very different player in terms of stats. On BR, there's Chet Lemon (player from 80s and 90s I remember), but also Roberto Clemente (#6 on the list). Melky can go either way--show good power over time and begin hitting for average or he may just be a league average OFer, but with a good arm in CF.

Bench Player Notes

The Yankees bench looks fairly weak. Shelly Duncan will platoon at 1b or DH and provides some power, but a low average and not much else (maybe another take out slide here and there). Morgan Ensberg who's shown success in the past is older and often injured at this point in his career, he'll fill in a 1b or 3b time to time. Finally Wilson Betemit is too much of a free swinger, but follows in the line of Yankee utility players who are hit or miss (usually the latter)--Luis Sojo, Enrique Wilson, Miguel Cairo.

Projected Starting Rotation

1. Wang

2. Pettitte

3. Hughes

4. Mussina/Chamberlain

5. Kennedy

(player stats listed as wins, losses, ERA, IP, Ks, BBs)

Chen Ming Wang '07 19-7 3.70/199.3/104/59 '08 16-10 4.25/212.3/110/55

If Wang had won 20 games last year (and been the only player to do so), would he have won the Cy Young? Probably not. There's some bias against players like Wang who win 19 games two seasons in a row, but aren't considered "dominating". He'll always have a low strikeout total, but he gets hitters out with the groundball. As long as the defense behind him is alright and he gets lots of run support, he'll put up wins. I don't expect another 19 win season, but somewhere around 15 and his ERA will go up as Wang seems to labor more in the second half.

Andy Pettitte '07 15-9/4.05/215.3/141/69 '08 12-7 4.15/188.1/126/58

Pettitte's year back in pinstripes was consistent and well received from the fans. I think everyone knew one day Pettitte would be back in New York. In the offseason he contemplated retirement again, his option was declined, but he came back despite the whole HGH and Clemens stuff. So is this it for Pettitte? I don't know, we'll see how he does. He's prone for an injury and if he retires, it'd be nice to do as a Yankee.

Phil Hughes '07 5-3/4.46/72.2/58/29 '08 11-9 4.32/174.0/145/73

This will be the full season for Hughes to see what direction he could go in. He pushed it a bit last year, straining his hammy in his second start and then injured his ankle while rehabbing. The good part about that is that it saved his arm some for this year. When he came back last year, he looked rusty at first, but by September he was in form. As any start rookie pitchers, the handling of Hughes comes down to pitch counts, innings pitched, and taking him out before he gets too shelled.

Mike Mussina '07 11-10/5.15/152.0/91/35 '08 5-8/4.87/143.2/82/32

Mussina may still have his whits about him, but his body is a former shell of itself. He's basically throwing junk and when he tries to get a fastball over, he leaves it in the zone to get creamed. Most likely Mussina will lose his spot in the rotation and be deemed to bullpen duty. Hopefully the least he can do is mentor the young pitchers on the side. This is likely it for Mussina in pinstripes unless he's willing to be a reliever from this point on in his career.

Joba Chamberlain '07 2-0/0.38/24.0/34/1 '08 9-3/2.68/134.5/140/33

Joba's rise and hype last year reminded me a bit of K-Rod in 2002, except K-Rod became a closer and Joba won't be. Then came the nats. Joba is great and has electric stuff, but he's young and we haven't seen him as a starter. I'm not sure what the "Joba Rules" are this year other than he's in the bullpen until someone gets injured, starts sucking a lot, or they think he's ready. Expect lots of Ks and reduced work, hopefully the hype doesn't get to him.

Ian Kennedy '07 1-0/1.89/19.0/15/9 '08 11-9/4.05/166.3/137/44

Kennedy is a player I know the least about. He only threw three major league games last year and that's not enough to indicate how he'd do. My expectation is that he'll be get better as the year goes on. There will be a few rough outtings early on, but he may end up being a quick learner.

Bullpen notables: LaTroy Hawkins, Kyle Farnsworth, Mariano Rivera

How Hawkins helps as a set up man is beyond me--he started falling apart 3-4 years ago as the Cubs' closer. If there's a way for the Yankees to trade Farnsworth they should take it. The innings are made exciting, but I often find myself cursing as soon as the bullpen door opens. Last year Mariano's closing talent began showing signs of cracking, but he should be solid this year.