With just a little over a week left in the 2007 regular season, it's crazy how close several of these races to the playoffs have become. At this time there are 16 teams (by my count) that could still make the playoffs--it would take a big win streak for a couple to realistically make it (Atlanta and Seattle)--but you have to admit it's exciting.
I'm not here to brag, but the Red Sox lead is now down to 2.5 games. Doug already harped on the Boston writers, but it's amazing how on May 29th the Yankees were at their low point 14.5 games behind the Red Sox and now are the closest to them then they've ever been. It would blow my mind if the Yankees won the AL East but as I've said if they just make the playoffs as the Wild Card team, that would be pretty special, and their 13th playoff appearance in a row.
It looks like the Angels will win the AL West pretty soon seeing Seattle faded this month and are now 8.5 games behind. The Angels have been a successful team since 2002 and have appeared each year except for 2003 and 2006. They're also the favorite right now to go to the World Series and as a Yankee fan I find them a bit scary to play.
The Tigers who were closing in again on Cleveland and the Yanks have dropped two to the Tribe and wrapping up that series today. But although they are 6.5 behing the Indians and 4.5 in the Wild Card, they could still come back as they play the Royals and Twins to finish off the season. I do think the Indians should win the central and we'll finally get to see this rebuilt team who nearly made the playoffs two years ago display its young talent.
Once again the Mets are losing ground to the Phillies and have to contend with all of those NL West teams for a playoff spot. The Mets to me are a weak playoff team even if they make it, so if they happen to lose the NL East in these final days I wouldn't be suprised.
As for the NL Central, those Cards faded pretty badly, but it's a neck and neck race between the Brew crew and Cubbies. Unfortunatly, whoever loses doesn't get into the playoffs. The Cubs have the easier schedule here on out (Pirates, Marlins, and Reds) but anything is possible. Even if they are tied in W-L at the end of the year, the Cubs would win it since they lead the season series with the Brewers 9 games to 6.
Since 2004, the NL West has always been close. This year the Rockies have been the better team in the mix. A key series is going on this upcoming weekend as the D Backs play the Dodgers--this will determine the Dodgers fate for sure. I'm suprised the D Backs are leading this thing because San Diego is the better team to me. But the injury of Chris Young on SD has had an impact. This one's in the air.
Whatever happens we'll know in less than two weeks, and while the football season is getting more attention, I think these baseball playoff races are the thing to watch in sports right now.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Monday, September 17, 2007
Hindsight and Foresight: Yankee Review September 10th to September 23rd
If it were the playoffs right now, the Yankees would have the successful postseason formula this past week--strong pitching matters more than scoring lots of runs. It's actually a finding from Baseball Prospectus' book Baseball Between the Numbers in a chapter called "Why Doesn't Billy Beane's Shit Work in the Playoffs?". Basically, they find that postseason success correlates more with good pitching than good hitting. And this past week--even with a couple breakout games, the Yankees hitting was poor overall, but the pitching kept them in it.
Hindsight: September 10th to September 16th
Up north of the border, Hughes, Mussina, and Kennedy had very respectable outtings. This was a good sign since Hughes may be getting into the swing of things in the rotation and now has two quality starts in a row, Mussina got out of his rut after some rest, and Kennedy who has come in and filled in nicely so far. The bats went south in the final game as Brian Bruney gave up a 9th inning winning hit to Frank Thomas. But they still took 2 out of 3.
In the final showdown at Fenway the game's scripts went as follows: Yankee comeback win, Boston blowout, and a final nailbiter. I was able to catch the Yankees comeback on Friday night as soon as I turned on the TV. Okejima simply had a bad outting, leaving pitches up and not being able to find the strike zone. I was impressed how the Yankees quickly changed their strategy when Pappelbon came in as they went up hacking at early pitches. It paid off though and a six run inning ensued capping the win. Saturday's day game turned ugly for the Yankees pitching. Wang wasn't at his best, but the bullpen was worse as Ramirez, Villone, and Bruney gave up 4 ER in an inning of work combined. Beckett was very solid after giving up a solo shot in the 1st to Jeter. Then onto last night the series ended with a great pitching matchup between Schilling and Clemens. Clemens looked to be in good form, went a full 6 innings and allowing three hits. He had a couple tough spots, but Mientkiwicz stepped in with great glove work and saved some runs. Damon also had a nice sliding catch in left. The difference in the game was Jeter's three run homerun which was certainly a mistake pitch by Schilling. Whatever V Tek discussed with Schilling before that pitch didn't work out. It got very scary in the 9th as Rivera surrendered a run and then with the bases loaded and two outs, Ortiz was jammed and popped up to shallow center to seal the win.
Weekly Stats
W-L: 4-2
RS/RA: 27/25
Offensive Numbers (AVG/OBP/SLG): .213/.307/.396
Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 4.53/3.26/7.61/.228/.295
Who's Hot: Ian Kennedy--another great start to help the Yankees out and hurt his chances of being married in early October
Who's Not: Hideki Matsui--his line this month is .125/.308/.200 0 HR 3 RBI
My Yankee of the Week: Derek Jeter, playing hurt, he had a nice hit against Pappelbon and hit 2 HRs, one the game winner, agains the Red Sox
Foresight: September 17th to September 23rd
It would appear to be an easy schedule this week for the Yankees as they are back at home for the final homestand agains the O's and Blue Jays. My continued barage on the Yankees this year from the time they were aweful up to now has finally been echoed by Joe Torre. These are the teams they need to beat--and if they can't, do they really deserve to be in the playoffs--that's pretty much what he said in an interview this past week.
With two weeks left, these games can't be taken lightly either. The O's are 8-4 versus the Yankees this year and the Yanks aren't exactly killing the Jays either going 8-6 against them. The biggest thing right now are those Tigers who are getting into a nice win streak and are 2 games back in the Wild Card race. Certainly the Yankees and their fans (this one included) don't care about winning the AL East but care more about just getting in the playoffs--and if that happens it will have been quite the turnaround season.
Hindsight: September 10th to September 16th
Up north of the border, Hughes, Mussina, and Kennedy had very respectable outtings. This was a good sign since Hughes may be getting into the swing of things in the rotation and now has two quality starts in a row, Mussina got out of his rut after some rest, and Kennedy who has come in and filled in nicely so far. The bats went south in the final game as Brian Bruney gave up a 9th inning winning hit to Frank Thomas. But they still took 2 out of 3.
In the final showdown at Fenway the game's scripts went as follows: Yankee comeback win, Boston blowout, and a final nailbiter. I was able to catch the Yankees comeback on Friday night as soon as I turned on the TV. Okejima simply had a bad outting, leaving pitches up and not being able to find the strike zone. I was impressed how the Yankees quickly changed their strategy when Pappelbon came in as they went up hacking at early pitches. It paid off though and a six run inning ensued capping the win. Saturday's day game turned ugly for the Yankees pitching. Wang wasn't at his best, but the bullpen was worse as Ramirez, Villone, and Bruney gave up 4 ER in an inning of work combined. Beckett was very solid after giving up a solo shot in the 1st to Jeter. Then onto last night the series ended with a great pitching matchup between Schilling and Clemens. Clemens looked to be in good form, went a full 6 innings and allowing three hits. He had a couple tough spots, but Mientkiwicz stepped in with great glove work and saved some runs. Damon also had a nice sliding catch in left. The difference in the game was Jeter's three run homerun which was certainly a mistake pitch by Schilling. Whatever V Tek discussed with Schilling before that pitch didn't work out. It got very scary in the 9th as Rivera surrendered a run and then with the bases loaded and two outs, Ortiz was jammed and popped up to shallow center to seal the win.
Weekly Stats
W-L: 4-2
RS/RA: 27/25
Offensive Numbers (AVG/OBP/SLG): .213/.307/.396
Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 4.53/3.26/7.61/.228/.295
Who's Hot: Ian Kennedy--another great start to help the Yankees out and hurt his chances of being married in early October
Who's Not: Hideki Matsui--his line this month is .125/.308/.200 0 HR 3 RBI
My Yankee of the Week: Derek Jeter, playing hurt, he had a nice hit against Pappelbon and hit 2 HRs, one the game winner, agains the Red Sox
Foresight: September 17th to September 23rd
It would appear to be an easy schedule this week for the Yankees as they are back at home for the final homestand agains the O's and Blue Jays. My continued barage on the Yankees this year from the time they were aweful up to now has finally been echoed by Joe Torre. These are the teams they need to beat--and if they can't, do they really deserve to be in the playoffs--that's pretty much what he said in an interview this past week.
With two weeks left, these games can't be taken lightly either. The O's are 8-4 versus the Yankees this year and the Yanks aren't exactly killing the Jays either going 8-6 against them. The biggest thing right now are those Tigers who are getting into a nice win streak and are 2 games back in the Wild Card race. Certainly the Yankees and their fans (this one included) don't care about winning the AL East but care more about just getting in the playoffs--and if that happens it will have been quite the turnaround season.
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