Hindsight and Foresight: Yankee Midseason Review

I'm not bothering reviewing the last week before the All-Star Break because it's more important to talk about the Yankees first half. As my weekly Hindsight and Foresights go, it's been a rough season for the most part as a Yankee fan. Mostly because they have the talent, they have the highest payroll in baseball, and have simply had a lot of bad luck. And there have been a lot of other things happen as well with Giambi's steroid talk to A-Rod's night out in Toronto, and waiting for Clemens which have been, in my view, distractions for the team (add to that list the Yankees announcement to negotiate with A-Rod and fueling the Scott Boras fire).

Of course there's no way of knowing with more good luck and less distractions exactly how much better off in the standings the team would be than they are now. Simply put, the Yankees aren't playing like the Yankees of the last 12 years and that's why they sit at 42-43, 10 games behind their Rivals the Boston Red Sox. And Boston has certainly proved their a great team this year, despite what Doug may say on here.

Rather than trying to win the AL East this year, the Yankees need to set their sights on climbing up in the Wild Card standings if they want to push for the playoffs. Currently they're 8.5 games in back of Cleveland. But then you look at teams like Cleveland, Detroit, Anaheim or even Toronto and Seattle and you have to wonder even if the Yankees even have a chance to make it. And what success will they have if they even make the playoffs?

I'm not downplaying the possibility that the Yankees could come back and make the World Series this year. It's possible, but quite unlikely. I figured a season like this would happen one year or another where the Yankees are a team of superstars, many past their prime or entering the downturn in their careers, and suddenly a lot of them have off years, get injured, etc and it all shows in their record. There will be a lesson in this and that is now is the time for the Yankees seriously acknowledge they need to rebuild from the farm system up. Think about it. In five years or so Posada, Rivera, Clemens, Damon, Abreu and others will either be retired or not as effective. And there still isn't a whole lot in the pipeline.

Well, enough babbling for now, here's how the team's stats look for the first half:

W-L: 42-43
RS/RA: 456/386
Offensive numbers (BA/HR/OBP/SLG/): .282/89/.356/.438
Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 4.36/1.39/5.46/.262/.406
First half MVP: Alex Rodriguez .317/30/86/.413/.665
First half bum: Kei Igawa 2-2/7.14/46.7 IP/33 K/23 BB


I'm going to break down the discussion of the first half into four parts: 1) The Injury Plague, 2) The Underperformers, 3) The A-Rod factor, and 4) More Bullpen Abuse followed by comments for the second half and beyond.

The Injury Plague

There have been plenty of injuries for the Yankees this year. Some big (Pavano getting Tommy John) and some small (Clemens' fatigued groin delaying his first start). But it all adds up to piecemeal patchwork to fill holes. Many of those holes were in the starting rotation--the Yankees broke the record for most starters in a season with 12. This started early on as Wang was set back a month, Mussina landed on the DL for two weeks, Hughes went down twice, Karstens broke his leg, and Pavano--well we've discussed that at length. It also affected the offense too. Though continuing his streak of not being on the DL Damon's been hobbled since game one of the season with leg problems, Matsui went down with a hamstring injury, Giambi's season is all but over, Mientkiewicz (whose name I still can't spell without looking it up) got run over, and A-Rod got a bit of a scare last week. All in all, injuries have made the rotation and lineup inconsistent.

The Underperformers

There have also been players who have struggled. Damon is certainly one who has struggled because he can't play everyday and his hobbled by some dents. This looks to be an off year for Damon who still continues to leadoff despite a .344 SLG. There was also Giambi, who was hot between April 14th and May 6th, but forgot how to hit a ball after that before landing on the DL. It's taken Matsui a bit longer than usual to find his swing, but he picked it up in June. Two disappointments thus far have been Abreu and Cano. Cano however, didn't really bust out until the second half last year as did Abreu, so it could be a matter of time. But to say the least Abreu has been disappointing at the plate and even in the field at times as he seems to have lost a few steps. Also as noted here the Yankees first base spot has been a merry-go-round (Mientkiewicz, Phelps, Cairo, Posada, and Damon have all played there at some point)--and it's been a sore spot for the team.

On the pitching side, it took Mussina two months to work out the kinks--it was starting to look like 2005 for him for a while. And other than Hughes, the Yankees rookies (DeSalvo, Clippard, Rasner, Wright, and Karstens) have been pretty bad. The worst rookie, who technically isn't a rookie, is Kei Igawa--noted above as the first half bum. There's nothing else to say other than Igawa has been terrible at best. The only credit I can give him is when he came into a game at Fenway and pitched 6 shutout innings of relief in a game the Yankees needed to win (they won 3-1). And the bullpen--Vizcaino is all over the place, Farnsworth is himself, and Proctor has lost a few pretty badly. But more on that group in a sec.

The A-Rod Factor

Now that the cats out of the bag that the Yankees are going to renegotiate something with A-Rod's contract, I'm planning a post more about him perhaps next week. But A-Rod has carried the Yankees offense even when it was non-existent. He had an unbelieveable April, a lackluster May, but refocused and was great again in June. And even when he yelled "mine" and got caught chilling with a hooker, he didn't let it get to him. I guess only Yankees fans can get to A-Rod. If he keeps up his pace, he would be in the running for his 3rd MVP season (up against Magglio Ordonez) and it could potentially be his best seasons ever. Here's how his first half compares with this first half from his other two MVP season (2003 and 2005):

2003 .285/.373/.544 22 HR 60 RBI
2005 .317/.426/.582 23 HR 72 RBI
2007 .317/.413/.665 30 HR 86 RBI

More Bullpen Abuse

I don't analyze bullpens here much, but I've noted how abused the Yankees bullpen is (overall they've pitched about 37% of all IP). This is because Joe Torre does not have much concern for overworking some relievers. I understand this year is a bit different because early on rookie pitchers were leaving the game very early almost everyday. But what erks me is how often he turned to Vizcaino and Farnsworth who have allowed teams to come back and win ones that shouldn't have been lost. In all, six Yankees have pitched relief in at least 30 games each. And let's not forget, Mariano has just 11 saves.


Foresight

The Schedule Ahead

As Buster Onley points out in his blog, the Yankees open the second half with 28 games against teams currently with a winning percentage below .500 (up until August 16th). That doesn't mean much since the Yankees were 16-16 against teams with that winning percentage this first half.

But looking at it, the Yankees schedule could favor them if, as I keep saying over and over again, they beat the teams they can and need to beat. Here's how the rest of their schedule breaks down:

Tampa Bay (13 games), Boston (6 games), Toronto (14 games), Baltimore (12 games), Kansas City (10 games), Detroit (8 games), Cleveland (3 games), Chicago (3 games), Los Angeles (3 games), Seattle (3 games)

Time to Step it Up

If you use the Pythagorean formula to get W-L, the Yankees should be 49-36. This certainly means the Yankees have been unlucky. To note, the Yankees also are doing poorly in one run games, going 6-14. And they just don't give Clemens run support after spending all that money. And there are many other things. Jorge Posada used to say it best during the dynasty years, "we grind it!" They really need to.

Here's some quick-and-dirty math I did. Since the Wild Card was introduced in 1994, the average number of wins the WC team had (1995-2006) is about 94. With the Yankees at 42-43, they will have to go 52-25 the rest of the way to get 94 wins. And that's contending against Detroit, Cleveland, Minnesota, Anaheim, and perhaps Seattle.

Rebuilding

The Yankees are a team who are rebuilding. It may not look like it at first, but the Sheffield and Johnson trades were just the beginning. At the end of the season Posada, Rivera, Clemens, Pettitte, and probably A-Rod will be free agents. A-Rod aside, Posada and Rivera will be back and finish their careers in NY. Other than those guys, next year (2008) will be Giambi's last contract year, Abreu's final season as well in his contract, and I believe Matsui is signed through 2009 like Damon. At some point Wang and Cano need to be locked up into long-term deals. But beside whether to sign these players, the Yankees of the future should not be all from the free agent market, but from within. We're already seeing a few of them--Cano, Wang, Hughes, Melky--and there will be more to come as long as the Yankees retain their prospect talent.

New Leadership

When the season ends for the Yankees this year, expect the leadership to change. I truly believe this is Torre's last season. I have said whether he wins a World Series or not, he's gone. It's not all Torre's fault that the Yankees haven't won a World Series since 2000, but in the end it falls on him. If last year wasn't an indicator that Torre was on the hook, I can't imagine was the Boss is saying privately. The team is going to change and rebuild and someone new will be needed at the helm. It will be between Mattingly and Girardi.

As for Cashman, he's publically on the hook. I doubt he'll get the can, but he'll likely lose decision making powers if the Yankees don't make the playoffs or don't win the World Series.

Which brings us to the Boss. I posted on him last week, but he wants one more ring (probably more) and does anything to do that. It will be an interesting offseason no matter how this ends.

Half-Full or Half-Empty: Midseason Review Part II

Today's midseason review (part deux) is on teams. It's still hard to say who will make the playoffs and so forth, but we'll have some fun with it here.

Questions like who has a shot at the playoffs, who's great first half is likely to fade out, and what team(s) are in for a 2nd half surge--are sure to stire up some debate on here. There's also a bit of analysis in here on the first half because it may say something about how teams will do in the second half.

Not all the teams are going to get a little write up here--so apologies to Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Texas, Washington, Pittsburgh, Houston, Cinncinati, and San Francisco. You can count these guys out for the playoffs though Kansas City and Pittsburgh seem to be doing better than last year (there is hope one day).

Will Hold Their Own

AL Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Anaheim

It's been a while since the Red Sox were looking pretty good half way through ahead of the Yankees. Actually, 1995 was when. In that year the Red Sox were up 7 games over the Yankees who were ironically one game under .500 (and then went on to get the first ever AL Wild Card). This year the Red Sox are up 10 games and have the best winning percentage in baseball. The Red Sox have one of the best starting pitching staffs in the majors and their offense is up there as well (Manny will come around). They're a sure thing to win the AL East barring any significant injuries.

Cleveland and Detroit are in a race in the AL Central. By the looks of it the Wild Card will come out of here again like last year. Cleveland is a team who rebuilt for years following much success in the 1990s and it has been worth the wait. C.C. Sabathia is putting up a Cy Young year and the likes of Sizemore, Martinez, and Hafner (who will pick it up the 2nd half) carry the offense. Detroit on the other hand has gone 14-6 their last 20 games coming into the All-Star break. What is most suprising is that Detroit's offense leads the AL in runs scored with 512 (Cleveland is next with 471). Maggio, Sheffield, and Guillen are having very nice seasons so far. Both Verlander and Bonderman are (who could both be another Cy Young contenders) a combined 19-4 215 IP 3.31 ERA 195 K/65 BB.

Anaheim should feel too much pressure from the Mariners (more on them later). Vlad has lead the offense and young players like Willits and Kotchman are making a mark on the offense. The pitching has held up despite Colon still recovering (and certianly not the same pitcher as two year ago Cy winner) and Santana only pitching well at home.

I'd consider these four teams ones to keep up their winning in the second half.

NL Mets, Milwaukee, Padres, Dodgers

The Mets pitching struggles continue as do Delgado and Beltran who are the two top offensive producers not doing their job. They've dealt with injuries (Alou, Perez, Pedro) but are still on top. Certainly everyone knew the Mets had their weaknesses but would still be in the race. It just looks like the Braves and Phillies have more holes than the Mets, which is lucky for them.

Milwaukee, who we've discussed before, is a great young team. They remind me of the 2005 Cleveland team, but the talent isn't as raw. The Milwaukee infield of Braun, Weeks, Fielder, and Hardy provide a great core of young talent of whom all but Weeks has really shown. On the pitching side, Sheets is having a nice comeback season though Suppan, their veteran free agent signing, hasn't been all that great (5.00 ERA). Claudio Vargas has been a bit of a suprise too.

In the NL West, the Doders and Padres are battling it out with a young Arizona team. If you remember two years ago, the Padres won the west with the lowest winning percentage (82-80). This year, like last is different, as the NL West has become more competitive. Pitching has really done it for the Padres (giving up just 298 runs, 64 fewer than the next team)--Peavy is having a career year, Young has been solid, and even Maddux and Wells have been very decent. Of course they have Petco on their side. The Dodgers on the other hand have a better offense, but not a very strong one. Garciaparra's power is sapped, Juan Pierre has a .311 OBP as leadoff hitter, and Furcal still hasn't come into his '06 form. Unfortuately the Dodgers have dealt with pitching injuries notably Jason's Schmidt's shoulder (he's likely done for the year) and Randy Wolf. But the bullpen is strong and will keep them in the race.

Faders

• The White Sox are done. The Buehrle rumors are now squashed after his four-year deal, but they could still trade Dye (what a 180 he's done) and anyone else. The only highlight this year will be Thome's 500th homerun...and maybe a few Guillen tirades against his team.
• Toronto, though tied with the Yankees, simply do not have the pitching to compete. Two of their big offseason signings from two years ago--Burnett and Ryan--have been injured. And Vernon Wells was definetely not worth all that money--there's only one Carlos Beltran (and even he performed horribly the 1st year of his deal).
• Seattle, who's been the biggest suprise nobody talks about is likely to fall out of any run of the NL West or Wild Card. This is the team that was convinced they should sign Beltre and "Dream" Weaver.
• Atlanta has been better than expected. The hey days are over, but they are at best a .500 team and will be passed by the Phillies for 2nd place in the NL East.
• Florida, who's just behind the Phillies, are in third place, but not good enough yet. Maybe firing Girardi wasn't the best idea afterall...
• Colorado has improved with the coming of Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe. Francis has pitched well for a Rockie and Mike Hampton is still MIA.
• Finally, the real St. Louis Cardinals showed up this year. They ain't making the playoffs folks which means there won't be a fluke repeat. The team is old and in need of a makeover.

Surgers

All this talk leaves teams who could come back and recover from a rough first half.

• Minnesota, like last year, should not be counted out. They still have Santana and some good young pitching (Garza, Bosner) that are going to do well. Morneau is having a solid follow up to his (undeserved) MVP. They will be in the AL Central race and Wild Card one.
• In the AL East, don't be suprised if Oakland comes through. Starring Haren, the best pitcher in the Al so far, Bill Beane has some things up his sleeve I'm sure.
• I was just watching Dennis Leary talk about the Red Sox and Yankees and he said he's nervous. "I'd rather be 10 games back than 10 games up", he said. I believe the Yankees have a chance. Despite the up and down, (more down), they have some great players. I'll say more about them on a special Hindsight and Foresight (upcoming).
• The Phillies will make a run at the NL East title. I'm shocked how much more power Rollins has these days, they have Utley the best 2bman in baseball, and Howard is bringing his power back. One setback is Lieber's injury along with Myers still sidelined.
• Finally, in the NL the Cubs are coming back. Maybe all that spending will come through and it will cause Zambrano to re-sign. Either way, slow starts and outbursts aside--somehow the team has rallied within 4.5 games of the Brew Crew.

My original picks this year were as such:
AL East Yankees
AL Central Cleveland
AL West Anaheim
WC Boston

NL East Mets
NL Central Cubs
NL West Dodgers
WC Phillies

with Cleveland and the Dodgers in the World Series. I'm going to stick to those guns, but I'll say Boston wins the AL East and Detroit the WC. Otherwise the rest stays put.

One more Midseason Review to come looking at some players--plus a special Hindsight and Foresight reviewing the Yankees 1st half with a trip down memory lane as I'm going to re-read all the other Hindsight and Foresights.