Speculating Awards: The Cy Youngs

Today I finally turn my sights to the Cy Young races in the AL and NL. I am writing this one two week s after the first "Speculating Awards" came out because two weeks can make or break a pitcher. So now that it's the last week of baseball's regular season, I think it's safe to say I can make an assessment of who very well will win the Cy Young awards.

A quick reminder of the stats I will use. Like my assessment of the MVP, I will look at traditional pitching stats that voters tend to look at, present some additional stats to round out the traditional ones, and finally use a few Baseball Prospectus stats to sort things all out (unfortunately I am unable to get PERA and Stuff from the BP database, they usually publish those number in their annual book).

First a reminder of how to read BP's stats:

What is SNLVAR? It stands for Support Neutral Lineup Value Above Replacement player (or pitcher in this case). That means nothing, but the basic idea is that is counts how many wins abover a replacement pitcher the pitcher in question has if he pitched in neutral environment (adjusting for opposing lineup, ballpark, and how a traditional win was won). Essentially, SNLVAR tries to show that the traditional way of counting a win (that the starting pitcher has the lead and that lead is held) is decieving. A pitcher can give up 6 runs in 5 innings, but if the offense put up 10 on the board he gets the win despite a crummy performance.

I wrote this in the primer, but let's look at a couple of Beckett's starts this year to prove my point. On April 21st against the Yankees Beckett threw 6.2 innings and gave up 4 ER (actually 1 run was unearned, so 5 total). Not terrible, but not spectacular for a start. He did end up winning the game. On the flip side, on July 15th Beckett pitched 8 innings, gave up 2 ER and struck out 8, but he lost the game. Both cases show that the pitcher doesn't have complete control over their wins and that is what SNLVAR is for.

An additional stat is BABIP or Batting Average on Balls In Play. It is a measure of a pitchers defense behind him and his overall luck. The average BABIP is .290, but often times this measure fluctuates for a pitcher over time.

American League Cy Young

1. C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland Indians

Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 18-7/3.19/205
Non-Traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.14/19/.258/.391
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .316/6.5/61.7

How could I say Sabathia when he doesn't lead the AL in wins and has a slightly higher ERA than Josh Beckett? Well, to me Sabathia's numbers are a little better, but not by much. Maybe I'm relying too much on BPs stats, but they tell me that although Sabathia defense and luck are against him, he has contributed more wins to his team as shown by SNLVAR and VORP. But these numbers are very close between the two.

A key element to my decision making is that Sabathia has thrown a few more starts than Beckett. So what? Well, as I stated in the beginning of this post, a few starts can make or break a pitcher's season. Sabathia is a workhorse over the years, especially this one. His strikeout rate has increased every year since his rookie season, showing that he can get batters out alone. He's also seen his BB/9 decrease each year as well to a new career low of 1.38 this season. Overall this just shows me Sabathia has a bit more maturity, effectiveness at getting batters out and keeping them off the basepaths, and stamina than Beckett.

2. Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox

Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 20-6/194.7/3.14/188
Non-Traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.13/15/.240/.363
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .301/6.3/58.1

Beckett's great success this year was lowering his HRs from 41 last year to 15 this year. He also improved his GB% (ground ball percentage or the percentage of balls in play that are on the ground) to 48.5%. Although he has a better W-L record than Sabathia his SNLVAR and VORP are just a bit lower than Sabathia's. Beckett wasn't as dominating as Sabathia when facing hitters as the Red Sox defense and good luck play into his record.

But the numbers are close to Sabathia and it was a tough call to put Beckett second. I think he will win the Cy Young which shouldn't suprise anyone since Beckett was due for a great season like this one day.

3. Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians

Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 18-8/208/3.03/133
Non-Traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.22/14/.248/.348
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .284/6.7/60.9

Two weeks ago I may have put Chien-Ming Wang here, but his last couple of starts have been shakey--hence why I'm writing this post now. So you may be wondering, "hey Carmona has a higher SNLVAR than Sabathia and Beckett, AND his ERA is lower why is he third on your list?" Carmona is an interesting case. He doesn't strike out a lot of hitters, but his BABIP reflects his defense and luck is on his side more often than not when he pitches, which is a good thing considering he has relied on them more (his GB% is 64.7%). And his BAA is lower than Sabathia's as is his SLG. The problem for me is that he has 61 walks, which is more than what Sabathia and Beckett. It doesn't mean he is wild, but it puts him at a higher risk of allowing runs to score. Fortunately he didn't--and I'd do more investigating to see how many double plays he got and so forth. All in all, Carmona's record and other stats show some signs of a slightly weaker pitcher who relies upon his defense to get his outs. There is nothing wrong with that--that's exactly what Wang does as well--but Sabathia and Beckett are a bit better doing it on their own.

Other notable names for Cy Young consideration in no particular order:
John Lackey (essentially a tie for 3rd with Carmona, but I had to pick one), Chien-Ming Wang (another solid season), Johan Santana (the record doesn't do him justice), Erik Bedard (he'll be somewhere else when he's a free agent), Dan Haren (great first half), JJ Putz (best closer this year), and Roy Halladay (usually up there as long as he pitches as full a season as he can).

National League Cy Young

1. Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres

Tradiational Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 18-6/210.0/2.36/233
Non-traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.03/10/.202/.292
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .278/8.9/77.2

If any pitcher has been truly dominant this year in baseball it has been Peavy. Even if the Padres do not make the playoffs, which could be the case now after this past week, Peavy is the clear winner. He leads the NL in strikeouts and has held hitters to a .202 BAA. He hasn't given up many hits 6.6/nine innings and only gave up 10 HRs (I realize he plays in Petco however). The real sign of dominance is in his SNLVAR and VORP, both which lead the majors. And he also leads the majors in ERA.

After an up and down season last year, Peavy's Cy Young is a year off and I'd expect him to win a couple more after this one.

2. Brad Penny, Los Angeles Dodgers

Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 16-4/203.0/2.93/133
Non-traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.30/9/.259/.361
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .305/7.2/63.4

This year his arm has held in tac but won't be throwing in the playoffs. Penny has delivered another solid season with a great ERA and career highs in SNLVAR and VORP. His walks are a bit high (70) and he doesn't strike out a ton of batters like Peavy, but he keeps the ball on the ground (50.9% GB%) and out of the stands (9 HRs allowed). If Peavy wasn't around he'd be your NL Cy Young winner, but he's a few steps behind.

3. Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamonbacks

Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 17-10/229.3/3.02/192
Non-traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.18/12/.234/.332
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .289/6.7/64.4

The 10 losses don't mean much, as the D-Backs are a very young team that doesn't have a great offense at all. Webb, who was last years Cy Young winner, had a tremendous second half going 9-4, but throwing 42 scoreless innings of work in five starts (three were complete game shutouts). It's a sure sign that Webb is a fierce pitcher who can get batters out with the K (he continues to improve like Sabathia in K's) and ground ball (63.2% GB%). Like Penny his walks are a bit high (70), but he held opposing batters to a .234 BAA and his defense is solid behind him.

Other notable names for Cy Young consideration in no particular order:
John Smoltz (his closer role for four years may have saved his arm some at 40), Roy Oswalt (pitched well on a terrible Astros team), Jose Valverde (another reason why the D-Backs will win the west), and Tim Hudson (great comeback year, put it back together).