Half-Full or Half-Empty: Midseason Review Part I

Didn't yesterday feel like a Saturday? I actually went back to work today, so it felt like a bizzaro Sunday.

I'm not intentionally monopololizing this blog--I know Doug's situation well having seen it first hand and he'd be posting a lot with an internet connection--but the blog must go on for the fellow readers (I hope Mr. Clinton, Doug's father, is still reading--our biggest fan). And I just happen to be in the posting zone of late, so I'm running with it.

Last Thursday I wrote a brainstorming post about doing a few midseason reviews of the season and since I'm in for the evening and watching Josh Beckett do his thing against Tampa Bay, I thought I'd start tonight. I know that ESPN and all the other sports sites are going to do their reviews, so I hope we can say something new or humorous or a bit different.

Our midseason review is entitled, "Half-Full or Half-Empty", which is pretty self-explanatory . Part I is reviewing rookies this year. I want to answer the following questions: Who was hyped as a top rookie this year? How are these top rookies doing? Are there any suprise breakouts? And given what we know now, who will win Rookie of the Year (RoY) in the AL and NL?

First, I have to clarify a few things here. A rookie isn't a rookie until they play at least one game in the majors. Before that they're considered prospects and top prospects if scouts and analysts think they're going to make the majors. Also, they're only a rookie for so long according to baseball's rules.

Because of this, I have to fudge a couple things. Each year there are publications that put together a list of the top whatever number they pick of prospects. The main two I rely upon are Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. I've used these two sources to compile my list for review, however some players on their preseason lists aren't going to be reviewed because they haven't had an at-bat or thrown a pitch in the majors yet. Basically, anyone who's a rookie in the majors this year and was on their lists will be reviewed--well, only the top 10 and any suprises (there are 155 rookies playing this year).

Between Baseball America's and Baseball Prospectus' lists, here were their top 10 prospects more or less (with a caveat at the end):

1. Alex Gordon, 3B Royals
2. Delmon Young, OF Devil Rays
3. Phil Huges, SP Yankees
4. Homer Bailey, SP Reds
5. Brandon Wood, SS/3B Angels
6. Tim Lincecum, SP Giants
7. Ryan Braun, 3B Brewers
8. Matt Garza, SP Twins
9. Chris Young, OF Diamondbacks
10. Yovai Gallardo, SP Brewers

There's a difference between Baseball America's and Baseball Prospectus' lists however, and this is a debate that's gone on since 2001. Is a player who played in Japan (or another organized baseball league in another country) eligible for RoY honors? Baseball America thinks so, and lists Dice-K as the number one prospect this year. Baseball Prospectus does not and that's the side of the debate I fall on hence no Dice-K on the top 10 list (it has nothing to do with him being a Red Sox). But when the season ends, baseball itself will consider Dice-K a rookie based on their rules linked above.

For my quick-and-dirty analysis I'm using Baseball Prospectus' statistic Value Over Replacement Player or VORP (I'd have used Win Shares like the Biggio/Thomas post used, but those don't get released until the end of the year, not exactly an easy computation). Basically, it's a measure of a players total value over a replacement players'. A VORP of 20 is pretty good, MVPs usually have VORPs in starting in the high 30s, just to give some perspective. I've also put other stats in here that are more standard: BA/OBP/SLG HR RBI for hitters and
W-L/IP/ERA/K/BB for pitchers.

1. Alex Gordon, 3B Royals .228/.319/.356 6 HR 24 RBI, -1.6 VORP

Gordon was the most hyped prospect this year and rightfully so. Two years ago he was College Player of the Year and last year he was MVP in Double-A. He was posted on here back in mid-May when I grew frustrated with having him on my fantasy team after thinking he was a steal draft pick. Gordon's average is up almost 30 points since then, but his on-base skills and power are yet to be found (last year in his OBP was .427 and SLG .588). With BP projecting him for a .282/.363/.509 25 HR 83 RBI 35.7 VORP, it'll be difficult to get to that level. The talent is there though and he just need to command the strike zone like he once did.

2. Delmon Young, OF Devil Rays .272/.304/.406 9 HR 44 RBI, 1.9 VORP

Delmon's been on good behavior with blue, but putting up unspectacular numbers. He's a free swinger, as noted by the low OBP and started the season off with a 12-game hitting streak. However, pitchers certainly have probably found his weaknesses as Delmon has 66 Ks, ranked 15th in the AL right now. What's suprising though is the lack of HRs. Young is compared to Albert (Joey) Belle who put up 28 HRs in his first full season. Maybe Young just needs to make a small adjustment and then they'll be more than lightening coming from the skies in Tampa Bay.

3. Phil Hughes, SP Yankees 1-1/10.7 IP/3.38 ERA/11 K/4 BB, 3.0 VORP

Hughes came up a lot earlier than most expected (which would have been the 2nd half), but that was because of the Yankees early pitching injuries and ineffectiveness. He made two starts, the second where he took a no hitter on May 1st into the 6th inning before walking off the mound with a hamstring injury. He was about to end his rehabing when he sprained his ankle--a grade 3, the worst you can get. I hear now he's just getting out of the boot he's been wearing and throwing off the mound again, so it's a good sign. Reports say he'll be back in August. Despite this set back, it's not his throwing arm like a lot of great young pitching phenoms have had (ie Prior, Harden, Wood). He's certainly expected to be the next great homegrown Yankee pitcher as long as he stays healthy.

4. Homer Bailey, SP Reds 2-2/23.3 IP/8.10 ERA/10K/19 BB, 0.3 VORP

A Texas flamethrower, Bailey sure hasn't shown command of the strike zone with those 19 walks. He had a great start in Oakland on June 19th going 7 IP/2 H/4 BB/3 Ks/1 ER. But other than that it hasn't been all that great. Fortunately for Bailey, he hasn't given up the homerun ball all that much, even at home, considering the Reds stadium is very hitter friendly. Obviously the Reds are one of the worst teams in baseball this year, so don't expect a lot of wins for Bailey, but if he keeps overthrowing and putting runners on he'll probably be sent down. Then again, the Reds having nothing to lose but their manager--oh wait, Narron was fired already.

5. Brandon Wood, SS/3B Angels .091/.091/.091/0 HR/0 RBI, -2.3 VORP

He got called up in late April and got 11 at bats, striking out in five of them. Right now, Orlando Cabrera is blocking Wood at short and Chone Figgins at 3B. Erik Abayar, another rookie, has also blocked Wood. I believe Cabrera is a free agent at the end of the year and the Angels may not resign him the plan is to put Wood at SS. Anyhow, Wood was great back in 2005 single-A ball hitting .321/43 HR/115 RBI, but as he's moved up so have the K's and not the power. Currently in triple-A he's hitting .259/15 HR/51 RBI with 76 K's. So the question remains--can Wood hit for average and power in the majors or are the Angel's developing another Troy Glaus?

6. Tim Lincecum, SP Giants 3-2/66.0 IP/4.64 ERA/74 K/29 BB, -1.3 VORP

Only in college last year, Lincecum has been pretty decent. He has six quality starts out of 11 games started, and in three of those he gave up no ER. Obviously Lincecum has shown he can strike out hitters and has struck out 10 or more in two starts. The one concern has been his pitch count as he has thrown 100 or more pitches in six of his starts. Like Bailey, Lincecum's home park is hitter friendly, but has not given up too many homeruns (6 in 66 IP--yikes, 666!) and hasn't given one up since June 3rd. But overall, there aren't any major complaints other than he's a young guy on an old team that is in no way a playoff contender.

7. Ryan Braun, 3B Brewers .347/.385/.626/8 HR/29 RBI, 22.2 VORP

I'm not sure what the minimum number of plate appearances is this point in the season (225 maybe??) to qualify for the BA leader board, but if Braun had that and was batting .347, he'd be second in the NL in BA after Matt Holliday (.352). He actually wasn't predicted to be up until later this year, a September call up at best, but at the end of May he was hitting .342/10 HR/22 RBI in Triple-A and the Brewers took a chance (over Craig Counsell and Tony Graffinino). So far the hitting has continued. Braun is a player with tons of power that is still being developed. And while his defense isn't impressing anyone yet, the Brewers now have a homegrown IF of Braun, Hardy (SS), Weeks (2B), and Fielder. Considering that talent there and that the Brewers are now 48-36, Braun's call up has added to the excitement in the land of Kenosha beef.

8. Matt Garza, SP Twins 0-0/2.0 IP/0.00 ERA/1 K/0 BB, N/A VORP

Apparently the combination of Sidney Ponson, Scott Baker, and Kevin Slowey in the 5th starter spot is better than Garza's potential contribution. He's in Triple-A right now sporting a 4-6/92 IP/3.62 ERA/95 K/31 BB. Something must have caused the Twins to do this, but I can't find anything. My only educated guess is that the Twins are being cautious with another solid starter as they were with Santana and Liriano (well, they tried with Liriano). There isn't much to say about Garza other than he will probably be up in the 2nd half to take the #5 spot as the Twins try to take the Wild Card.

9. Chris Young, OF Diamondbacks .236/.279/.428/12 HR/30 RBI, 3.4 VORP

Not the Giants' pitcher Chris Young. This Young looks to have a lot of potential on a young Diamondback team. The OBP is anemically low, and like Delmon (no relation) he's a free swinger. Young's big issue this year have been setbacks with his groin (not sure which leg) and that has sat him down quite a few times. This has certainly contributed to his down-up-down season--batting .232 at the end of April, .277 the end of May, and now back in the .230s. He's also been placed all over the Diamondback's lineup batting leadoff, 5th 6th, 7th, and 8th. BP says he's a potential 30/30 guy. He could get 30 if he turned it up, but only has 9 SBs (100% success rate). Still only 23 though, he's got time on his side for now.

10. Yovai Gallardo, SP Brewers 1-1/22 IP/3.68 ERA/21 K/9 BB, 0.4 VORP

While he's only been up the last 3 or 4 weeks, the Brewers like what they've seen, albeit a small sample size. And like Braun how couldn't they have called him up--Gallardo was 8-3/77.2 IP/2.90 ERA/110 K/28 BB--oh and a .189 BAA. From what I've read, Gallardo who's the same age as Hughes and Bailey, is the #3 guy behind these two, and has decent but not overpowering stuff. Man all these young Brewers are making me want to start watching them more.


So that's where those guys are, but there are others to note. Hunter Pence should be mentioned first here. Pence has been a hit and RBI machine at the plate for the Astros but also has shown he can play a solid CF even with that hill in Houston. Reggie Willits, a 26 year old rookie playing LF for the Angels is 10th in the AL in hitting (.327) and shows good plate presense (.420 OBP). There's also "little Eck", Dustin Pedroia who has been displaying doubles power for the Red Sox this year. The feel good story so far this season is that of Josh Hamilton of the Reds--the former #1 draft pick in 1998 who was banned from baseball for three seasons for drug use and battled other personal issues. He made the team, started off hot, then had some bad gas (literally), which put him on the DL, but is now back in the lineup. And quickly, I can't forget Travis Buck (OAK; sounds like a country singer), Troy Tulowitzski (COL), Mike Fontenot (CHC), and James Loney (LAD)--all of whom have VORPs of 10.0 or higher.

Get On With It!!

So who's going to be RoY for the AL and NL? For the NL, I believe it's between Hunter Pence and Tim Lincecum. What it will come down to for the voters is how many wins Lincecum gets and if Pence can continue to hit over .300 while driving in runs. I give it to Pence though because of how good the NL West is where the Giants will finish last for sure.

In the AL, remember those Japanese players? There's Dice-K (30.1 VORP) but also the recently voted in All-Star Hideki Okajima (22.6 VORP). Okajima isn't the closer, so despite his sub-1.00 ERA, if that continues I doubt he'll get many votes for RoY. Therefore, Dice-K will likely get the RoY honors--he already has 10 wins and will break 200Ks. And honestly after these two pitchers, the only other candidate is another Red Sox player Pedroia. It's a sure thing the RoY will come out of Beantown--their first since Fred Lynn's RoY/MVP season in 1975.

One of us will continue on Sunday with Part II--not sure what'll be yet, but either a review of teams, hot/slow starts, or how awesome it is that Doug's got Comcast's internet streaming in his place.