Sunday, June 10, 2007

Musings Involving my Arch-Nemesis

Roger Clemens' season thus far:
1-0, 4.50 ERA.

Today his line read as follows:
6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 7 K, 2 BB

Let's contrast this with a pitcher we will refer to as Pitcher X, who also started today:
6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 5 K, 1 BB

Clemens' did this against a team that entered today at 26-35.

Pitcher X did this against a team the entered today at 36-26.

So, Clemens and Pitcher X put together comparable numbers against, respectively, a pretty bad team and a pretty good team.

Clemens stands to make something like $18 Million off of his pro-rated $28 Million contract this season.

Pitcher X is being paid $3.35 Million this season.

Now, for the big reveal:

Pitcher X is none other than...

Julian Tavarez.

Congratulations, Yankees - you're paying 5 times as much for Clemens as the Red Sox are paying for their 5th starter by default, and it looks like you're basically getting the same pitcher.

Sure, Clemens will always have a better K/BB rate than Tavarez, but if the best he can muster is a "Quality Start" against the Pirates, (they of the .694 Team OPS - not the D-Backs are much better at .726) is he really going to be the impact player the Yankees' need him to be?

I agree with Teddy that the Rocket can certainly be an inspirational clubhouse presence, but as Teddy and I have both pointed out, we're both unclear about whether or not he'll actually pitch on the road.

I also agree with Teddy that Clemens is increasingly likely to pitch again next year. I'm not foolish enough to count the Yankees out for the year - despite the Knights of the Keyboard in New England are falling all over each other to stick a fork in the Yankees' this year - but as Teddy pointed out, Clemens wants to go out on top. Had the Yankees beat the Marlins in '03, I don't think he would have "failed" at retirement the way he keeps doing.

There is, after all, still time for him to go back to the Blue Jays.

What happened to day games?

Even though I don't have TV, I do share Teddy's disappointment in the broadcast (or lack thereof) of Clemens' return today. What really disappointed me was the fact that the Yankees'-Pirates game was the only Saturday afternoon game today. Night games are fine during the week, but c'mon - I was hoping to follow the Sox-D'Backs during the afternoon while I was doing some work this afternoon - why wait until 9:40?

At least the Sox-D'Backs game goes at 4:40 tomorrow.

I do find some amusement in Teddy's disgust in the Buck-McCarver team. Those two might as well be holding pinstriped pom-poms during each broadcast.

Showdown in the Desert

Once again, J.D. Drew had a nice little night for himself against Arizona (3 for 5, 2 runs) though his brother Stephen (2 for 4, 1 HR, 2 RBIs) made a nice show for himself as well.

The worst the Sox can do now is win 2 out of 3 in Arizona - and I'm looking forward to the Dice-K/Big Unit matchup tomorrow (though a Schilling/Johnson matchup at the BOB would be even more satisfying).

The extra-inning win was a nice bonus - I was worried about a repeat of the 11-inning loss in the opener against Oakland.

What boggled the mind a bit was the Sox 1-2 top of the order combo of Lugo (.217/.280/.326) and Crisp (.225/.284/.305), when the team has a more attractive alternative in Pedroia (.318/.399/.446) and Cora (.293/.337/.463). I understand Crisp being a necessary evil - as a number 9 hitter his glove would carry his bat - but what is Lugo even doing in this lineup?

I'm frightened by the prospect of the Red Sox continuing their success with Lugo and Crisp at the top of the order and falling into the same misguided assumption that the early-decade Twins did when Guzman and Rivas were at the top of the order - that the team was succeeding because of this 1-2 combo, rather than in spite of it.

Pitching Shakeup

Mike Timlin is off the DL, and J.C. Romero has been designated for assignment. With the ascendence of Hideki Okajima, J.C. became expendable. I know Javier Lopez is out of options, so really the choice came down to whether or not 3 lefties were really necessary.

Romero and Lopez's lines are pretty close:

Romero: 1-0, 1 SV, 3.15 ERA, 23 Gs, 20 IP
Lopez: 1-0, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 19 Gs, 14 IP

Clearly, Romero has been used more often and for more extended periods of time, but they were pretty comprable, until you consider this:

Romero: 24 Hs, 15 BBs, 11 Ks
Lopez: 11 Hs, 6 BBs, 10 Ks

Lopez isn't exactly a shutdown lefty reliever, but he is the more attractive option.

I don't see Romero clearing waivers, and with the Yankees' waiver priority, he may well wind up in pinstripes before long - just like recent Red Sox farmhand Runelvys "Supersize That" Hernandez.

Timlin is 41, so I don't know exactly what the Sox expect out of him. It would be nice to see him team with Okajima as a setup option the way he once did with the Em Dog, but I don't think that's terribly realistic. Brendan Donnelly pitched a solid inning tonight, but he seems to suffer from all-too-frequent Chrenobyl outings. I don't quite know why Kyle Snyder (2.25 ERA in 18 appearances) isn't given more responsibility - the 11th-inning HR he gave up to Mark Ellis is his only glaring mistake of the season - and Joel Piniero isn't solving any problems any time soon.

If Jon Lester comes back and takes over for Tavarez in the rotation, Tavarez is likely to supplant Piniero in the bullpen. I don't know that he's the answer either - nor would I put Craig Hansen or Manny Delcarmen on that list right now.

Still, a Timlin/Tavarez/Snyder/Donnelly catch-as-catch can operation is preferable to trading Jacoby Ellsbury for the next Larry Anderson.

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