Interestingly enough just when the Yankees are winning, Boston is losing more often than before this season. On June 1st the Yankees were 12.5 GB and are now 8.5 GB. What's been going on with these teams since June 1st? Let's take a look at some numbers.
Overall Cumulative Numbers (since June 1st)
quick glossary: offense numbers are BA/OBP/SLG
BAA is batting average against
BABIP is batting average balls in play
BR per 9 innings is base runners per 9 innings of play
NYY
W-L: 12-3
RS/RA: 92/53
Offense: .309/.389/.487 15 HR, 13 SB
Pitching: 3.53 ERA/.259 BAA/.295 BABIP/4 SV/11.9 BR per 9 innings
% IP: starters 66.1% vs 33.3% bullpen
BOS
W-L: 7-8
RS/RA: 58/64
Offense: .264/.346/.388 11 HR, 7 SB
Pitching: 4.15 ERA/.248 BAA/.284 BABIP/2 SV/11.7 Base Runners per 9 innings
% IP: starters 70.2 vs 29.7 bullpen
By the way, June 1st is also the day the last Yankees/Red Sox series had started. As any reader of Bill James knows, baseball games are won by scoring runs--one team has to score more runs than the other to win. As the numbers show, the difference between the Yankees and Red Sox over this stretch is in their offenses. The Yankees have outscored their opponents by 39 runs while Boston has been outscored. The current trend is quite a reversal of the first two months when Boston's offense was in the top three in the AL each month (posting OPS's of .778 in April and .829 in May).
But in this month one thing stands out between the teams' offenses: the lineup. I haven't watched too much of Boston's games, but as Doug has pointed out Boston's leadoff woes. Lugo was still Boston's leadoff man until June 4th. Since then Francona has tried Pedroia and Drew in the leadoff spot (Pedroia moving up from 8th and Drew from 6th). Crisp who started the season as Boston's leadoff man now bats 9th and Lugo is now 8th. I wouldn't argue this is depesperate times yielding desperate measures, but Francona's going by the numbers (since June 1st):
Lugo .135/.203/.212
Crisp .208/.250/.208
vs.
Pedroia .391/.431/.565
Drew .306/.350/.528
It doesn't get better for Boston though because Youkilis (who formerly batted 2nd), Mike Lowell, and V-Tek are either slumping or hitting below an average hitter.
The Yankees on the other hand have the hitting bug just about all around. And unlike Boston's lineup, there's has been more stable in terms of who hits where (with the exception of Giambi and Mientkiewicz who landed on the DL but were both a drag on the offense). How good is the offense this month?
- Six of the nine current starters are hitting over .300 this month:
- And seven of the nine's OPS is at least .800
- I personally also applaude the Yankees running more on the base paths, not only stealing bases, but doing quite a bit of hit and runs.
The biggest positives for the Yankees offense of late have been Abreu, Rodriguez, and Matsui. These guys, the 3-4-5 hitters are hitting .370 10 HR 49 RBI. The big negative is their leadoff hitter Johnny Damon who's hitting slightly better than Lugo and Crisp, but still hasn't found his stroke this season.
As for both team's pitching the Yankees have avoided injuries and a couple Red Sox starters have had some bad luck of late. Clemens, Mussina, Pettitte, and Wang have pitched well this month going a combined 6-1/3.45 ERA/73 IP/46 K in 11 GS. For the Red Sox this month Beckett's ERA is 5.59, Wakefield's 5.89, and Schilling's 4.26. Dice-K and Tavarez have been solid though.
What's In Store?
It's only been three weeks into June, yet the Yankees needed this offensive surge and a nine game winning streak to prove to themselves that they are for real. As for Boston, the timing couldn't have been worse, however I don't doubt that their offense will come alive any day now.
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