Even though the Yankees season is over, I'm still watching the playoffs which is why I'm in on a Saturday night watching the Red Sox, Indians game. This is a quick post, but I wanted to say that I'm rooting for the Indians and Rockies to go to the World Series. Here's why...
I'll start with the easier argument the Rockies. This is one of those teams who defy that argument that the top teams based on the regular season are more likely to succeed in the playoffs. I think the Rockies in part got lucky but they also earned it. What I love about the Rockies being in this is that this is only their second time, have been a unsuccessful expansion team for much of its history, and are the underdog. Forget about winning 18 in the last 19 games, no one expected them to be here or even have a record over .500 during the season.
The harder argument to make is the Indians due to the context of this blog. Let me start by saying, at the beginning of the season I picked the Indians to win the World Series. That was not too far fetched as many experts (I'm not in that field) gave the Indians a chance. This has nothing to do with the Red Sox or being a Yankee fan. I have loved watching Cleveland as a franchise rebuild itself and making it clear to its fans, "hey, we were great in the 1990s, but the best way for us to get back into winning a World Series is to cut fat and start over again." And that's what they've done in the last seven years or so--building through the farm system without signing the big free agents. I've loved how they for years said CC Sabathia was going to be the staff ace and he's proved he is more and more every year. And I love quite a few of their players as a fan of baseball--Sizemore, Carmona, Hafner, and Martinez. We got a taste of them almost making it to the playoffs in 2005 and last year was a lessons learned kinda season, but this year they have been great fun to watch.
So Indians v Rockies is my updated prediction and the Indians will win it in six games.
Saturday, October 13, 2007
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Now What?
I'm still recovering from the Yankees' loss on Monday, but it wasn't a huge shock to me that they'd lost. Of course several Red Sox fans, including a family member of mine, relished in the moment that they'd lost--either because if they'd won the Red Sox would have faced the Yankees in the ALCS and they fear that or it's just because the Yankees' season is over--it's usually a combination of both I think.
The past three post seasons have been hard to swallow (2004 is in its own category), mainly because the Yankees offense looks terrible in the playoffs. Guys who were red hot going in stumble and they can't hit in the clutch or with runners on. I'll look up the stats eventually, but I'm pretty sure this has been the case from observation. The pitching too hasn't been as solid either. You can never predict how a pitcher will do, but there haven't been many "pitching gems" for Yankees pitchers the last three years in the playoffs.
Anyhow, as most people know Joe Torre is probably gone. I read what I wrote the other day and was bothered that I wrote Joe would welcome leaving. I had written that in the context of Steinbrenner's ways, knowing that Joe knew he'd have to welcome leaving because he failed again, he knew he was out. But after hearing Joe Torre speak after the game, he certainly doesn't welcome leaving on the personal level and love he has for his players and game.
And therein lies the problem for the Yankees now, because it's not only a Joe's love for his players, it's their's for him. Already there is speculation that a few players, key ones over the years, could leave if Joe is let go. Rivera has already spoken out about this. The list also includes Posada, A-Rod, Pettitte, and possibly others who are free agents this offseason. There could even be a long-term affect from this as other players may leave next year based on this one decision. At the core of this issue is the matter of loyalty and its obvious whose side the players are on.
All the while, the Yankees are rebuilding, but this could throw a wrentch in that machine as well. For the past decade or so the Yankees have become an organization players are drawn to because they have a good shot at winning a championship. With the loss of Torre and others, they may be viewed both internally and externally as the organization that doesn't want to keep the people in place that give them that shot every year.
Unfortnately, I believe Torre is gone unless there's some sort of "Rudy" moment where players come in and put their jerseys on Steinbrenner's desk. Even if that happens I also believe a couple of those jersey may stay on his desk and never be worn again.
The past three post seasons have been hard to swallow (2004 is in its own category), mainly because the Yankees offense looks terrible in the playoffs. Guys who were red hot going in stumble and they can't hit in the clutch or with runners on. I'll look up the stats eventually, but I'm pretty sure this has been the case from observation. The pitching too hasn't been as solid either. You can never predict how a pitcher will do, but there haven't been many "pitching gems" for Yankees pitchers the last three years in the playoffs.
Anyhow, as most people know Joe Torre is probably gone. I read what I wrote the other day and was bothered that I wrote Joe would welcome leaving. I had written that in the context of Steinbrenner's ways, knowing that Joe knew he'd have to welcome leaving because he failed again, he knew he was out. But after hearing Joe Torre speak after the game, he certainly doesn't welcome leaving on the personal level and love he has for his players and game.
And therein lies the problem for the Yankees now, because it's not only a Joe's love for his players, it's their's for him. Already there is speculation that a few players, key ones over the years, could leave if Joe is let go. Rivera has already spoken out about this. The list also includes Posada, A-Rod, Pettitte, and possibly others who are free agents this offseason. There could even be a long-term affect from this as other players may leave next year based on this one decision. At the core of this issue is the matter of loyalty and its obvious whose side the players are on.
All the while, the Yankees are rebuilding, but this could throw a wrentch in that machine as well. For the past decade or so the Yankees have become an organization players are drawn to because they have a good shot at winning a championship. With the loss of Torre and others, they may be viewed both internally and externally as the organization that doesn't want to keep the people in place that give them that shot every year.
Unfortnately, I believe Torre is gone unless there's some sort of "Rudy" moment where players come in and put their jerseys on Steinbrenner's desk. Even if that happens I also believe a couple of those jersey may stay on his desk and never be worn again.
Monday, October 8, 2007
End of An Era?
As I'm writing this the Yankees are down 6-1 in the bottom of the 4th. It ain't over yet, but the chances of winning the game keep getting lower. Obviously if you haven't heard, Joe Torre will likely be let go as the Yankees manager if they lose the ALDS and that could be tonight.
Joe Torre has been a great manager for the New York Yankees since 1996. Certainly he can attribute his entire managerial success to New York after stops with the Mets, Cardinals, and Braves. It's been more than the four World Series wins and having been spoiled with watching the Yankees 12 straight years in a row in the playoffs. First and foremost, he was the man who lead these Yankee teams on the ball field to successful seasons when just a few years before 1996 the Yankees were the laughing stock in baseball (and yes I know Buck Schowalter, Bob Watson and others had a lot to do with the rebuilding prior to that). He did this without much controversy, always staying cool and calm on the bench and acting much like a father figure amongst the players.
As a Yankee fan this team has gone from more of a smallball approach to a team filled with superstars, power hitters, and well paid players. In saying that, he certainly managed egos, if there were any--and I would think there were many. The egos most likely came in after 2001 when the Yankees started signing larger and larger contracts with the likes of former MVP Jason Giambi, Cy Young winners Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, and all talk Gary Sheffield. And with players like this came a more powerful offense and an attempt at a powerful rotation. But Joe kept them in line and managed his players well.
What I loved about Joe Torre is that in the New York spotlight, he never cracked and was down to earth and honest when he spoke about the team and its players. I never saw Joe explode at the media or point a finger at a player or coach when something went wrong. He always understood the situation, Steinbrenner, and what was expected, which was always a World Series championship.
I would expect Torre to be done after this season whether the Yankees happen to win the World Series or lose tonight. It's time for a fresh start in my mind not just for the Yankees but also for Torre as well. I would guess Torre would welcome the change anyhow because the past four postseasons have not gone his way and he knows with his job description that that is failure. But more than that, it's been the same story since 2002 and the story needs to change.
What will be most difficult is seeing Joe go despite his early success and subsequent failures in the postseason. I love Joe Torre, don't get me wrong, but his players love him more, many of whom (Jeter, Posada, Rivera, Cano, Cabrera, Matsui, to name a few) have played their entire major league careers with him. The amount of respect for Torre from fans and players alike is insurmountable and when he's gone, it will take a long healing process and major adjustment to get used to a new manager.
Whatever happens, Torre's Era will be looked at as a successful one even if he didn't win the World Series the last seven years of his tenure. He brought in a new baseball dynasty--and a new Yankee Dynasty to New York from 1996-2001--after the city had not seen the team win a World Series since 1978. He had a winning record every season including 10 seasons winning the AL East, four with 100+ wins (including that amazing 1998 season), and making the playoffs every year he managed. Not many managers have done that. Torre is in a special class, an elite class of managers, and he'll go down as one of the greatest of Yankee managers in their history.
Joe Torre has been a great manager for the New York Yankees since 1996. Certainly he can attribute his entire managerial success to New York after stops with the Mets, Cardinals, and Braves. It's been more than the four World Series wins and having been spoiled with watching the Yankees 12 straight years in a row in the playoffs. First and foremost, he was the man who lead these Yankee teams on the ball field to successful seasons when just a few years before 1996 the Yankees were the laughing stock in baseball (and yes I know Buck Schowalter, Bob Watson and others had a lot to do with the rebuilding prior to that). He did this without much controversy, always staying cool and calm on the bench and acting much like a father figure amongst the players.
As a Yankee fan this team has gone from more of a smallball approach to a team filled with superstars, power hitters, and well paid players. In saying that, he certainly managed egos, if there were any--and I would think there were many. The egos most likely came in after 2001 when the Yankees started signing larger and larger contracts with the likes of former MVP Jason Giambi, Cy Young winners Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, and all talk Gary Sheffield. And with players like this came a more powerful offense and an attempt at a powerful rotation. But Joe kept them in line and managed his players well.
What I loved about Joe Torre is that in the New York spotlight, he never cracked and was down to earth and honest when he spoke about the team and its players. I never saw Joe explode at the media or point a finger at a player or coach when something went wrong. He always understood the situation, Steinbrenner, and what was expected, which was always a World Series championship.
I would expect Torre to be done after this season whether the Yankees happen to win the World Series or lose tonight. It's time for a fresh start in my mind not just for the Yankees but also for Torre as well. I would guess Torre would welcome the change anyhow because the past four postseasons have not gone his way and he knows with his job description that that is failure. But more than that, it's been the same story since 2002 and the story needs to change.
What will be most difficult is seeing Joe go despite his early success and subsequent failures in the postseason. I love Joe Torre, don't get me wrong, but his players love him more, many of whom (Jeter, Posada, Rivera, Cano, Cabrera, Matsui, to name a few) have played their entire major league careers with him. The amount of respect for Torre from fans and players alike is insurmountable and when he's gone, it will take a long healing process and major adjustment to get used to a new manager.
Whatever happens, Torre's Era will be looked at as a successful one even if he didn't win the World Series the last seven years of his tenure. He brought in a new baseball dynasty--and a new Yankee Dynasty to New York from 1996-2001--after the city had not seen the team win a World Series since 1978. He had a winning record every season including 10 seasons winning the AL East, four with 100+ wins (including that amazing 1998 season), and making the playoffs every year he managed. Not many managers have done that. Torre is in a special class, an elite class of managers, and he'll go down as one of the greatest of Yankee managers in their history.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Speculating Awards: The Cy Youngs
Today I finally turn my sights to the Cy Young races in the AL and NL. I am writing this one two week s after the first "Speculating Awards" came out because two weeks can make or break a pitcher. So now that it's the last week of baseball's regular season, I think it's safe to say I can make an assessment of who very well will win the Cy Young awards.
A quick reminder of the stats I will use. Like my assessment of the MVP, I will look at traditional pitching stats that voters tend to look at, present some additional stats to round out the traditional ones, and finally use a few Baseball Prospectus stats to sort things all out (unfortunately I am unable to get PERA and Stuff from the BP database, they usually publish those number in their annual book).
First a reminder of how to read BP's stats:
What is SNLVAR? It stands for Support Neutral Lineup Value Above Replacement player (or pitcher in this case). That means nothing, but the basic idea is that is counts how many wins abover a replacement pitcher the pitcher in question has if he pitched in neutral environment (adjusting for opposing lineup, ballpark, and how a traditional win was won). Essentially, SNLVAR tries to show that the traditional way of counting a win (that the starting pitcher has the lead and that lead is held) is decieving. A pitcher can give up 6 runs in 5 innings, but if the offense put up 10 on the board he gets the win despite a crummy performance.
I wrote this in the primer, but let's look at a couple of Beckett's starts this year to prove my point. On April 21st against the Yankees Beckett threw 6.2 innings and gave up 4 ER (actually 1 run was unearned, so 5 total). Not terrible, but not spectacular for a start. He did end up winning the game. On the flip side, on July 15th Beckett pitched 8 innings, gave up 2 ER and struck out 8, but he lost the game. Both cases show that the pitcher doesn't have complete control over their wins and that is what SNLVAR is for.
An additional stat is BABIP or Batting Average on Balls In Play. It is a measure of a pitchers defense behind him and his overall luck. The average BABIP is .290, but often times this measure fluctuates for a pitcher over time.
American League Cy Young
1. C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland Indians
Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 18-7/3.19/205
Non-Traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.14/19/.258/.391
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .316/6.5/61.7
How could I say Sabathia when he doesn't lead the AL in wins and has a slightly higher ERA than Josh Beckett? Well, to me Sabathia's numbers are a little better, but not by much. Maybe I'm relying too much on BPs stats, but they tell me that although Sabathia defense and luck are against him, he has contributed more wins to his team as shown by SNLVAR and VORP. But these numbers are very close between the two.
A key element to my decision making is that Sabathia has thrown a few more starts than Beckett. So what? Well, as I stated in the beginning of this post, a few starts can make or break a pitcher's season. Sabathia is a workhorse over the years, especially this one. His strikeout rate has increased every year since his rookie season, showing that he can get batters out alone. He's also seen his BB/9 decrease each year as well to a new career low of 1.38 this season. Overall this just shows me Sabathia has a bit more maturity, effectiveness at getting batters out and keeping them off the basepaths, and stamina than Beckett.
2. Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox
Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 20-6/194.7/3.14/188
Non-Traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.13/15/.240/.363
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .301/6.3/58.1
Beckett's great success this year was lowering his HRs from 41 last year to 15 this year. He also improved his GB% (ground ball percentage or the percentage of balls in play that are on the ground) to 48.5%. Although he has a better W-L record than Sabathia his SNLVAR and VORP are just a bit lower than Sabathia's. Beckett wasn't as dominating as Sabathia when facing hitters as the Red Sox defense and good luck play into his record.
But the numbers are close to Sabathia and it was a tough call to put Beckett second. I think he will win the Cy Young which shouldn't suprise anyone since Beckett was due for a great season like this one day.
3. Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians
Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 18-8/208/3.03/133
Non-Traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.22/14/.248/.348
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .284/6.7/60.9
Two weeks ago I may have put Chien-Ming Wang here, but his last couple of starts have been shakey--hence why I'm writing this post now. So you may be wondering, "hey Carmona has a higher SNLVAR than Sabathia and Beckett, AND his ERA is lower why is he third on your list?" Carmona is an interesting case. He doesn't strike out a lot of hitters, but his BABIP reflects his defense and luck is on his side more often than not when he pitches, which is a good thing considering he has relied on them more (his GB% is 64.7%). And his BAA is lower than Sabathia's as is his SLG. The problem for me is that he has 61 walks, which is more than what Sabathia and Beckett. It doesn't mean he is wild, but it puts him at a higher risk of allowing runs to score. Fortunately he didn't--and I'd do more investigating to see how many double plays he got and so forth. All in all, Carmona's record and other stats show some signs of a slightly weaker pitcher who relies upon his defense to get his outs. There is nothing wrong with that--that's exactly what Wang does as well--but Sabathia and Beckett are a bit better doing it on their own.
Other notable names for Cy Young consideration in no particular order:
John Lackey (essentially a tie for 3rd with Carmona, but I had to pick one), Chien-Ming Wang (another solid season), Johan Santana (the record doesn't do him justice), Erik Bedard (he'll be somewhere else when he's a free agent), Dan Haren (great first half), JJ Putz (best closer this year), and Roy Halladay (usually up there as long as he pitches as full a season as he can).
National League Cy Young
1. Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres
Tradiational Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 18-6/210.0/2.36/233
Non-traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.03/10/.202/.292
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .278/8.9/77.2
If any pitcher has been truly dominant this year in baseball it has been Peavy. Even if the Padres do not make the playoffs, which could be the case now after this past week, Peavy is the clear winner. He leads the NL in strikeouts and has held hitters to a .202 BAA. He hasn't given up many hits 6.6/nine innings and only gave up 10 HRs (I realize he plays in Petco however). The real sign of dominance is in his SNLVAR and VORP, both which lead the majors. And he also leads the majors in ERA.
After an up and down season last year, Peavy's Cy Young is a year off and I'd expect him to win a couple more after this one.
2. Brad Penny, Los Angeles Dodgers
Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 16-4/203.0/2.93/133
Non-traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.30/9/.259/.361
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .305/7.2/63.4
This year his arm has held in tac but won't be throwing in the playoffs. Penny has delivered another solid season with a great ERA and career highs in SNLVAR and VORP. His walks are a bit high (70) and he doesn't strike out a ton of batters like Peavy, but he keeps the ball on the ground (50.9% GB%) and out of the stands (9 HRs allowed). If Peavy wasn't around he'd be your NL Cy Young winner, but he's a few steps behind.
3. Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamonbacks
Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 17-10/229.3/3.02/192
Non-traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.18/12/.234/.332
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .289/6.7/64.4
The 10 losses don't mean much, as the D-Backs are a very young team that doesn't have a great offense at all. Webb, who was last years Cy Young winner, had a tremendous second half going 9-4, but throwing 42 scoreless innings of work in five starts (three were complete game shutouts). It's a sure sign that Webb is a fierce pitcher who can get batters out with the K (he continues to improve like Sabathia in K's) and ground ball (63.2% GB%). Like Penny his walks are a bit high (70), but he held opposing batters to a .234 BAA and his defense is solid behind him.
Other notable names for Cy Young consideration in no particular order:
John Smoltz (his closer role for four years may have saved his arm some at 40), Roy Oswalt (pitched well on a terrible Astros team), Jose Valverde (another reason why the D-Backs will win the west), and Tim Hudson (great comeback year, put it back together).
A quick reminder of the stats I will use. Like my assessment of the MVP, I will look at traditional pitching stats that voters tend to look at, present some additional stats to round out the traditional ones, and finally use a few Baseball Prospectus stats to sort things all out (unfortunately I am unable to get PERA and Stuff from the BP database, they usually publish those number in their annual book).
First a reminder of how to read BP's stats:
What is SNLVAR? It stands for Support Neutral Lineup Value Above Replacement player (or pitcher in this case). That means nothing, but the basic idea is that is counts how many wins abover a replacement pitcher the pitcher in question has if he pitched in neutral environment (adjusting for opposing lineup, ballpark, and how a traditional win was won). Essentially, SNLVAR tries to show that the traditional way of counting a win (that the starting pitcher has the lead and that lead is held) is decieving. A pitcher can give up 6 runs in 5 innings, but if the offense put up 10 on the board he gets the win despite a crummy performance.
I wrote this in the primer, but let's look at a couple of Beckett's starts this year to prove my point. On April 21st against the Yankees Beckett threw 6.2 innings and gave up 4 ER (actually 1 run was unearned, so 5 total). Not terrible, but not spectacular for a start. He did end up winning the game. On the flip side, on July 15th Beckett pitched 8 innings, gave up 2 ER and struck out 8, but he lost the game. Both cases show that the pitcher doesn't have complete control over their wins and that is what SNLVAR is for.
An additional stat is BABIP or Batting Average on Balls In Play. It is a measure of a pitchers defense behind him and his overall luck. The average BABIP is .290, but often times this measure fluctuates for a pitcher over time.
American League Cy Young
1. C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland Indians
Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 18-7/3.19/205
Non-Traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.14/19/.258/.391
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .316/6.5/61.7
How could I say Sabathia when he doesn't lead the AL in wins and has a slightly higher ERA than Josh Beckett? Well, to me Sabathia's numbers are a little better, but not by much. Maybe I'm relying too much on BPs stats, but they tell me that although Sabathia defense and luck are against him, he has contributed more wins to his team as shown by SNLVAR and VORP. But these numbers are very close between the two.
A key element to my decision making is that Sabathia has thrown a few more starts than Beckett. So what? Well, as I stated in the beginning of this post, a few starts can make or break a pitcher's season. Sabathia is a workhorse over the years, especially this one. His strikeout rate has increased every year since his rookie season, showing that he can get batters out alone. He's also seen his BB/9 decrease each year as well to a new career low of 1.38 this season. Overall this just shows me Sabathia has a bit more maturity, effectiveness at getting batters out and keeping them off the basepaths, and stamina than Beckett.
2. Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox
Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 20-6/194.7/3.14/188
Non-Traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.13/15/.240/.363
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .301/6.3/58.1
Beckett's great success this year was lowering his HRs from 41 last year to 15 this year. He also improved his GB% (ground ball percentage or the percentage of balls in play that are on the ground) to 48.5%. Although he has a better W-L record than Sabathia his SNLVAR and VORP are just a bit lower than Sabathia's. Beckett wasn't as dominating as Sabathia when facing hitters as the Red Sox defense and good luck play into his record.
But the numbers are close to Sabathia and it was a tough call to put Beckett second. I think he will win the Cy Young which shouldn't suprise anyone since Beckett was due for a great season like this one day.
3. Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians
Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 18-8/208/3.03/133
Non-Traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.22/14/.248/.348
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .284/6.7/60.9
Two weeks ago I may have put Chien-Ming Wang here, but his last couple of starts have been shakey--hence why I'm writing this post now. So you may be wondering, "hey Carmona has a higher SNLVAR than Sabathia and Beckett, AND his ERA is lower why is he third on your list?" Carmona is an interesting case. He doesn't strike out a lot of hitters, but his BABIP reflects his defense and luck is on his side more often than not when he pitches, which is a good thing considering he has relied on them more (his GB% is 64.7%). And his BAA is lower than Sabathia's as is his SLG. The problem for me is that he has 61 walks, which is more than what Sabathia and Beckett. It doesn't mean he is wild, but it puts him at a higher risk of allowing runs to score. Fortunately he didn't--and I'd do more investigating to see how many double plays he got and so forth. All in all, Carmona's record and other stats show some signs of a slightly weaker pitcher who relies upon his defense to get his outs. There is nothing wrong with that--that's exactly what Wang does as well--but Sabathia and Beckett are a bit better doing it on their own.
Other notable names for Cy Young consideration in no particular order:
John Lackey (essentially a tie for 3rd with Carmona, but I had to pick one), Chien-Ming Wang (another solid season), Johan Santana (the record doesn't do him justice), Erik Bedard (he'll be somewhere else when he's a free agent), Dan Haren (great first half), JJ Putz (best closer this year), and Roy Halladay (usually up there as long as he pitches as full a season as he can).
National League Cy Young
1. Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres
Tradiational Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 18-6/210.0/2.36/233
Non-traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.03/10/.202/.292
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .278/8.9/77.2
If any pitcher has been truly dominant this year in baseball it has been Peavy. Even if the Padres do not make the playoffs, which could be the case now after this past week, Peavy is the clear winner. He leads the NL in strikeouts and has held hitters to a .202 BAA. He hasn't given up many hits 6.6/nine innings and only gave up 10 HRs (I realize he plays in Petco however). The real sign of dominance is in his SNLVAR and VORP, both which lead the majors. And he also leads the majors in ERA.
After an up and down season last year, Peavy's Cy Young is a year off and I'd expect him to win a couple more after this one.
2. Brad Penny, Los Angeles Dodgers
Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 16-4/203.0/2.93/133
Non-traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.30/9/.259/.361
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .305/7.2/63.4
This year his arm has held in tac but won't be throwing in the playoffs. Penny has delivered another solid season with a great ERA and career highs in SNLVAR and VORP. His walks are a bit high (70) and he doesn't strike out a ton of batters like Peavy, but he keeps the ball on the ground (50.9% GB%) and out of the stands (9 HRs allowed). If Peavy wasn't around he'd be your NL Cy Young winner, but he's a few steps behind.
3. Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamonbacks
Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 17-10/229.3/3.02/192
Non-traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.18/12/.234/.332
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .289/6.7/64.4
The 10 losses don't mean much, as the D-Backs are a very young team that doesn't have a great offense at all. Webb, who was last years Cy Young winner, had a tremendous second half going 9-4, but throwing 42 scoreless innings of work in five starts (three were complete game shutouts). It's a sure sign that Webb is a fierce pitcher who can get batters out with the K (he continues to improve like Sabathia in K's) and ground ball (63.2% GB%). Like Penny his walks are a bit high (70), but he held opposing batters to a .234 BAA and his defense is solid behind him.
Other notable names for Cy Young consideration in no particular order:
John Smoltz (his closer role for four years may have saved his arm some at 40), Roy Oswalt (pitched well on a terrible Astros team), Jose Valverde (another reason why the D-Backs will win the west), and Tim Hudson (great comeback year, put it back together).
Monday, September 24, 2007
Hindsight and Foresight: Yankee Review September 17 to September 30th
With this blog the one post I've always made time for is this one and this happens to be the last one this year. I've used the "Hindsight and Foresight" posts as a method for me to keep up with the team, take a close look at what's been happening, and to comment on it. While I consider myself a dedicated Yankee fan, I don't catch all the games, read all the articles, and so forth, but throughout this season this was my refuge to say what I needed to say about the team.
Yes, it now looks like the Yankees are set to make the playoffs--and that's the first time I'm saying it because it looks like they're in this one. Throughout the season I was a skeptic--I have some proof below of what I said. Now I'll probably be a skeptic in the playoffs. There's no one way to describe the season other than it was one that started ugly and looked a hell of a lot better towards the end. I don't know what this will mean for the playoffs, it's still in the air who will play who in the AL, but assuming the Yankees have a solid last week of the regular season, they will get some good looks as contenders to go to the World Series.
Hindsight: Birth of Post to Today
I looked back at some things I wrote in previous "Hindsight and Foresights" and even going into the beginning of this month I offered lots of skepticism with a dash of hope at times.
In one of the first of these posts I said, "Last year, I predicted (wrongly), that the Yankees would not make the playoffs. I seem to be a year off with that prediction. " (5/28)
Shortly after I stated, "I was trying to think of what the positives for the Yankees are this season and honestly I can't think of any." (6/4)
When the Yankees started winning a lot right after the All-Star break I menioned, "But I've seen how this Yankee season has gone so if trends continue, this current streak is just another blip on the radar." (7/24)
And the beginning of this month I continued, "It's hard to say if the Yankees will make the playoffs after last week's performance. The great part was the sweep of the Red Sox at home. The worst part was watching them get beat out by the Devil Rays immediately afterwards." (9/3)
But I offered hope and advice during the year as well:
In May I made a very general comment, "The only advice I can give the Yankees today is to play better, with more intensity and work together as a team."
I continually said they need to beat the teams they need to beat, "But looking at it, the Yankees schedule could favor them if, as I keep saying over and over again, they beat the teams they can and need to beat." (7/12)
You can't pin the Yankees huge comeback on one factor or even two. I'll pin it to seven factors:
1. A-Rod's amazing season
2. Underperformers (esp Cano, Matsui, Abreau) finding faith in hitting
3. Solid pitching by Wang and Pettitte down the stretch
4. The Youngsters: Chamberlain, Cabrera, Hughes, Cano, Kennedy
5. Sticking with Cashman's Rebuilding plan
6. Overcoming distractions (Giambi steroid talk, injuries, A-Rod's contract)
7. Steinbrenner not panicing
When 2007 is over and done with, I'll discuss and give my big picture assessment. That won't be until November or so. But with that, for the final time in 2007 the weekly stats:
Weekly Stats
W-L: 5-1
RS/RA: 45/27
Offensive number (BA/OBP/SLG): .311/.407/.425
Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 3.92/1.32/7.39/.266/.371
Who's Hot: Mike Mussina, 1.93 ERA, 14 IP, 11 Ks, 2-0 just in time!
Who's Not: Jason Giambi, .100/.400/.100 and his foot's bothering him again.
My Yankee of the Week: The entire team, they've pulled it together and made me look like some crack pipe blog writer. Great season boys.
Foresight: September 24th to September 30th
This is it. The Yanks wrap up Toronto, head to Tampa Bay and then to Baltimore. And I get to take a vacation to California for 10 days. I will try to write some more--like the Cy Young Speculation post before I leave, but after Thursday you won't hear from me much until I get back. Thanks for reading these posts, your comments, and keep reading. I'll bring back Hindsight and Foresight next year.
Yes, it now looks like the Yankees are set to make the playoffs--and that's the first time I'm saying it because it looks like they're in this one. Throughout the season I was a skeptic--I have some proof below of what I said. Now I'll probably be a skeptic in the playoffs. There's no one way to describe the season other than it was one that started ugly and looked a hell of a lot better towards the end. I don't know what this will mean for the playoffs, it's still in the air who will play who in the AL, but assuming the Yankees have a solid last week of the regular season, they will get some good looks as contenders to go to the World Series.
Hindsight: Birth of Post to Today
I looked back at some things I wrote in previous "Hindsight and Foresights" and even going into the beginning of this month I offered lots of skepticism with a dash of hope at times.
In one of the first of these posts I said, "Last year, I predicted (wrongly), that the Yankees would not make the playoffs. I seem to be a year off with that prediction. " (5/28)
Shortly after I stated, "I was trying to think of what the positives for the Yankees are this season and honestly I can't think of any." (6/4)
When the Yankees started winning a lot right after the All-Star break I menioned, "But I've seen how this Yankee season has gone so if trends continue, this current streak is just another blip on the radar." (7/24)
And the beginning of this month I continued, "It's hard to say if the Yankees will make the playoffs after last week's performance. The great part was the sweep of the Red Sox at home. The worst part was watching them get beat out by the Devil Rays immediately afterwards." (9/3)
But I offered hope and advice during the year as well:
In May I made a very general comment, "The only advice I can give the Yankees today is to play better, with more intensity and work together as a team."
I continually said they need to beat the teams they need to beat, "But looking at it, the Yankees schedule could favor them if, as I keep saying over and over again, they beat the teams they can and need to beat." (7/12)
You can't pin the Yankees huge comeback on one factor or even two. I'll pin it to seven factors:
1. A-Rod's amazing season
2. Underperformers (esp Cano, Matsui, Abreau) finding faith in hitting
3. Solid pitching by Wang and Pettitte down the stretch
4. The Youngsters: Chamberlain, Cabrera, Hughes, Cano, Kennedy
5. Sticking with Cashman's Rebuilding plan
6. Overcoming distractions (Giambi steroid talk, injuries, A-Rod's contract)
7. Steinbrenner not panicing
When 2007 is over and done with, I'll discuss and give my big picture assessment. That won't be until November or so. But with that, for the final time in 2007 the weekly stats:
Weekly Stats
W-L: 5-1
RS/RA: 45/27
Offensive number (BA/OBP/SLG): .311/.407/.425
Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 3.92/1.32/7.39/.266/.371
Who's Hot: Mike Mussina, 1.93 ERA, 14 IP, 11 Ks, 2-0 just in time!
Who's Not: Jason Giambi, .100/.400/.100 and his foot's bothering him again.
My Yankee of the Week: The entire team, they've pulled it together and made me look like some crack pipe blog writer. Great season boys.
Foresight: September 24th to September 30th
This is it. The Yanks wrap up Toronto, head to Tampa Bay and then to Baltimore. And I get to take a vacation to California for 10 days. I will try to write some more--like the Cy Young Speculation post before I leave, but after Thursday you won't hear from me much until I get back. Thanks for reading these posts, your comments, and keep reading. I'll bring back Hindsight and Foresight next year.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
To the Wire
With just a little over a week left in the 2007 regular season, it's crazy how close several of these races to the playoffs have become. At this time there are 16 teams (by my count) that could still make the playoffs--it would take a big win streak for a couple to realistically make it (Atlanta and Seattle)--but you have to admit it's exciting.
I'm not here to brag, but the Red Sox lead is now down to 2.5 games. Doug already harped on the Boston writers, but it's amazing how on May 29th the Yankees were at their low point 14.5 games behind the Red Sox and now are the closest to them then they've ever been. It would blow my mind if the Yankees won the AL East but as I've said if they just make the playoffs as the Wild Card team, that would be pretty special, and their 13th playoff appearance in a row.
It looks like the Angels will win the AL West pretty soon seeing Seattle faded this month and are now 8.5 games behind. The Angels have been a successful team since 2002 and have appeared each year except for 2003 and 2006. They're also the favorite right now to go to the World Series and as a Yankee fan I find them a bit scary to play.
The Tigers who were closing in again on Cleveland and the Yanks have dropped two to the Tribe and wrapping up that series today. But although they are 6.5 behing the Indians and 4.5 in the Wild Card, they could still come back as they play the Royals and Twins to finish off the season. I do think the Indians should win the central and we'll finally get to see this rebuilt team who nearly made the playoffs two years ago display its young talent.
Once again the Mets are losing ground to the Phillies and have to contend with all of those NL West teams for a playoff spot. The Mets to me are a weak playoff team even if they make it, so if they happen to lose the NL East in these final days I wouldn't be suprised.
As for the NL Central, those Cards faded pretty badly, but it's a neck and neck race between the Brew crew and Cubbies. Unfortunatly, whoever loses doesn't get into the playoffs. The Cubs have the easier schedule here on out (Pirates, Marlins, and Reds) but anything is possible. Even if they are tied in W-L at the end of the year, the Cubs would win it since they lead the season series with the Brewers 9 games to 6.
Since 2004, the NL West has always been close. This year the Rockies have been the better team in the mix. A key series is going on this upcoming weekend as the D Backs play the Dodgers--this will determine the Dodgers fate for sure. I'm suprised the D Backs are leading this thing because San Diego is the better team to me. But the injury of Chris Young on SD has had an impact. This one's in the air.
Whatever happens we'll know in less than two weeks, and while the football season is getting more attention, I think these baseball playoff races are the thing to watch in sports right now.
I'm not here to brag, but the Red Sox lead is now down to 2.5 games. Doug already harped on the Boston writers, but it's amazing how on May 29th the Yankees were at their low point 14.5 games behind the Red Sox and now are the closest to them then they've ever been. It would blow my mind if the Yankees won the AL East but as I've said if they just make the playoffs as the Wild Card team, that would be pretty special, and their 13th playoff appearance in a row.
It looks like the Angels will win the AL West pretty soon seeing Seattle faded this month and are now 8.5 games behind. The Angels have been a successful team since 2002 and have appeared each year except for 2003 and 2006. They're also the favorite right now to go to the World Series and as a Yankee fan I find them a bit scary to play.
The Tigers who were closing in again on Cleveland and the Yanks have dropped two to the Tribe and wrapping up that series today. But although they are 6.5 behing the Indians and 4.5 in the Wild Card, they could still come back as they play the Royals and Twins to finish off the season. I do think the Indians should win the central and we'll finally get to see this rebuilt team who nearly made the playoffs two years ago display its young talent.
Once again the Mets are losing ground to the Phillies and have to contend with all of those NL West teams for a playoff spot. The Mets to me are a weak playoff team even if they make it, so if they happen to lose the NL East in these final days I wouldn't be suprised.
As for the NL Central, those Cards faded pretty badly, but it's a neck and neck race between the Brew crew and Cubbies. Unfortunatly, whoever loses doesn't get into the playoffs. The Cubs have the easier schedule here on out (Pirates, Marlins, and Reds) but anything is possible. Even if they are tied in W-L at the end of the year, the Cubs would win it since they lead the season series with the Brewers 9 games to 6.
Since 2004, the NL West has always been close. This year the Rockies have been the better team in the mix. A key series is going on this upcoming weekend as the D Backs play the Dodgers--this will determine the Dodgers fate for sure. I'm suprised the D Backs are leading this thing because San Diego is the better team to me. But the injury of Chris Young on SD has had an impact. This one's in the air.
Whatever happens we'll know in less than two weeks, and while the football season is getting more attention, I think these baseball playoff races are the thing to watch in sports right now.
Monday, September 17, 2007
Hindsight and Foresight: Yankee Review September 10th to September 23rd
If it were the playoffs right now, the Yankees would have the successful postseason formula this past week--strong pitching matters more than scoring lots of runs. It's actually a finding from Baseball Prospectus' book Baseball Between the Numbers in a chapter called "Why Doesn't Billy Beane's Shit Work in the Playoffs?". Basically, they find that postseason success correlates more with good pitching than good hitting. And this past week--even with a couple breakout games, the Yankees hitting was poor overall, but the pitching kept them in it.
Hindsight: September 10th to September 16th
Up north of the border, Hughes, Mussina, and Kennedy had very respectable outtings. This was a good sign since Hughes may be getting into the swing of things in the rotation and now has two quality starts in a row, Mussina got out of his rut after some rest, and Kennedy who has come in and filled in nicely so far. The bats went south in the final game as Brian Bruney gave up a 9th inning winning hit to Frank Thomas. But they still took 2 out of 3.
In the final showdown at Fenway the game's scripts went as follows: Yankee comeback win, Boston blowout, and a final nailbiter. I was able to catch the Yankees comeback on Friday night as soon as I turned on the TV. Okejima simply had a bad outting, leaving pitches up and not being able to find the strike zone. I was impressed how the Yankees quickly changed their strategy when Pappelbon came in as they went up hacking at early pitches. It paid off though and a six run inning ensued capping the win. Saturday's day game turned ugly for the Yankees pitching. Wang wasn't at his best, but the bullpen was worse as Ramirez, Villone, and Bruney gave up 4 ER in an inning of work combined. Beckett was very solid after giving up a solo shot in the 1st to Jeter. Then onto last night the series ended with a great pitching matchup between Schilling and Clemens. Clemens looked to be in good form, went a full 6 innings and allowing three hits. He had a couple tough spots, but Mientkiwicz stepped in with great glove work and saved some runs. Damon also had a nice sliding catch in left. The difference in the game was Jeter's three run homerun which was certainly a mistake pitch by Schilling. Whatever V Tek discussed with Schilling before that pitch didn't work out. It got very scary in the 9th as Rivera surrendered a run and then with the bases loaded and two outs, Ortiz was jammed and popped up to shallow center to seal the win.
Weekly Stats
W-L: 4-2
RS/RA: 27/25
Offensive Numbers (AVG/OBP/SLG): .213/.307/.396
Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 4.53/3.26/7.61/.228/.295
Who's Hot: Ian Kennedy--another great start to help the Yankees out and hurt his chances of being married in early October
Who's Not: Hideki Matsui--his line this month is .125/.308/.200 0 HR 3 RBI
My Yankee of the Week: Derek Jeter, playing hurt, he had a nice hit against Pappelbon and hit 2 HRs, one the game winner, agains the Red Sox
Foresight: September 17th to September 23rd
It would appear to be an easy schedule this week for the Yankees as they are back at home for the final homestand agains the O's and Blue Jays. My continued barage on the Yankees this year from the time they were aweful up to now has finally been echoed by Joe Torre. These are the teams they need to beat--and if they can't, do they really deserve to be in the playoffs--that's pretty much what he said in an interview this past week.
With two weeks left, these games can't be taken lightly either. The O's are 8-4 versus the Yankees this year and the Yanks aren't exactly killing the Jays either going 8-6 against them. The biggest thing right now are those Tigers who are getting into a nice win streak and are 2 games back in the Wild Card race. Certainly the Yankees and their fans (this one included) don't care about winning the AL East but care more about just getting in the playoffs--and if that happens it will have been quite the turnaround season.
Hindsight: September 10th to September 16th
Up north of the border, Hughes, Mussina, and Kennedy had very respectable outtings. This was a good sign since Hughes may be getting into the swing of things in the rotation and now has two quality starts in a row, Mussina got out of his rut after some rest, and Kennedy who has come in and filled in nicely so far. The bats went south in the final game as Brian Bruney gave up a 9th inning winning hit to Frank Thomas. But they still took 2 out of 3.
In the final showdown at Fenway the game's scripts went as follows: Yankee comeback win, Boston blowout, and a final nailbiter. I was able to catch the Yankees comeback on Friday night as soon as I turned on the TV. Okejima simply had a bad outting, leaving pitches up and not being able to find the strike zone. I was impressed how the Yankees quickly changed their strategy when Pappelbon came in as they went up hacking at early pitches. It paid off though and a six run inning ensued capping the win. Saturday's day game turned ugly for the Yankees pitching. Wang wasn't at his best, but the bullpen was worse as Ramirez, Villone, and Bruney gave up 4 ER in an inning of work combined. Beckett was very solid after giving up a solo shot in the 1st to Jeter. Then onto last night the series ended with a great pitching matchup between Schilling and Clemens. Clemens looked to be in good form, went a full 6 innings and allowing three hits. He had a couple tough spots, but Mientkiwicz stepped in with great glove work and saved some runs. Damon also had a nice sliding catch in left. The difference in the game was Jeter's three run homerun which was certainly a mistake pitch by Schilling. Whatever V Tek discussed with Schilling before that pitch didn't work out. It got very scary in the 9th as Rivera surrendered a run and then with the bases loaded and two outs, Ortiz was jammed and popped up to shallow center to seal the win.
Weekly Stats
W-L: 4-2
RS/RA: 27/25
Offensive Numbers (AVG/OBP/SLG): .213/.307/.396
Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 4.53/3.26/7.61/.228/.295
Who's Hot: Ian Kennedy--another great start to help the Yankees out and hurt his chances of being married in early October
Who's Not: Hideki Matsui--his line this month is .125/.308/.200 0 HR 3 RBI
My Yankee of the Week: Derek Jeter, playing hurt, he had a nice hit against Pappelbon and hit 2 HRs, one the game winner, agains the Red Sox
Foresight: September 17th to September 23rd
It would appear to be an easy schedule this week for the Yankees as they are back at home for the final homestand agains the O's and Blue Jays. My continued barage on the Yankees this year from the time they were aweful up to now has finally been echoed by Joe Torre. These are the teams they need to beat--and if they can't, do they really deserve to be in the playoffs--that's pretty much what he said in an interview this past week.
With two weeks left, these games can't be taken lightly either. The O's are 8-4 versus the Yankees this year and the Yanks aren't exactly killing the Jays either going 8-6 against them. The biggest thing right now are those Tigers who are getting into a nice win streak and are 2 games back in the Wild Card race. Certainly the Yankees and their fans (this one included) don't care about winning the AL East but care more about just getting in the playoffs--and if that happens it will have been quite the turnaround season.
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