Half-Full or Half-Empty: Midseason Review Part II

Today's midseason review (part deux) is on teams. It's still hard to say who will make the playoffs and so forth, but we'll have some fun with it here.

Questions like who has a shot at the playoffs, who's great first half is likely to fade out, and what team(s) are in for a 2nd half surge--are sure to stire up some debate on here. There's also a bit of analysis in here on the first half because it may say something about how teams will do in the second half.

Not all the teams are going to get a little write up here--so apologies to Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Texas, Washington, Pittsburgh, Houston, Cinncinati, and San Francisco. You can count these guys out for the playoffs though Kansas City and Pittsburgh seem to be doing better than last year (there is hope one day).

Will Hold Their Own

AL Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Anaheim

It's been a while since the Red Sox were looking pretty good half way through ahead of the Yankees. Actually, 1995 was when. In that year the Red Sox were up 7 games over the Yankees who were ironically one game under .500 (and then went on to get the first ever AL Wild Card). This year the Red Sox are up 10 games and have the best winning percentage in baseball. The Red Sox have one of the best starting pitching staffs in the majors and their offense is up there as well (Manny will come around). They're a sure thing to win the AL East barring any significant injuries.

Cleveland and Detroit are in a race in the AL Central. By the looks of it the Wild Card will come out of here again like last year. Cleveland is a team who rebuilt for years following much success in the 1990s and it has been worth the wait. C.C. Sabathia is putting up a Cy Young year and the likes of Sizemore, Martinez, and Hafner (who will pick it up the 2nd half) carry the offense. Detroit on the other hand has gone 14-6 their last 20 games coming into the All-Star break. What is most suprising is that Detroit's offense leads the AL in runs scored with 512 (Cleveland is next with 471). Maggio, Sheffield, and Guillen are having very nice seasons so far. Both Verlander and Bonderman are (who could both be another Cy Young contenders) a combined 19-4 215 IP 3.31 ERA 195 K/65 BB.

Anaheim should feel too much pressure from the Mariners (more on them later). Vlad has lead the offense and young players like Willits and Kotchman are making a mark on the offense. The pitching has held up despite Colon still recovering (and certianly not the same pitcher as two year ago Cy winner) and Santana only pitching well at home.

I'd consider these four teams ones to keep up their winning in the second half.

NL Mets, Milwaukee, Padres, Dodgers

The Mets pitching struggles continue as do Delgado and Beltran who are the two top offensive producers not doing their job. They've dealt with injuries (Alou, Perez, Pedro) but are still on top. Certainly everyone knew the Mets had their weaknesses but would still be in the race. It just looks like the Braves and Phillies have more holes than the Mets, which is lucky for them.

Milwaukee, who we've discussed before, is a great young team. They remind me of the 2005 Cleveland team, but the talent isn't as raw. The Milwaukee infield of Braun, Weeks, Fielder, and Hardy provide a great core of young talent of whom all but Weeks has really shown. On the pitching side, Sheets is having a nice comeback season though Suppan, their veteran free agent signing, hasn't been all that great (5.00 ERA). Claudio Vargas has been a bit of a suprise too.

In the NL West, the Doders and Padres are battling it out with a young Arizona team. If you remember two years ago, the Padres won the west with the lowest winning percentage (82-80). This year, like last is different, as the NL West has become more competitive. Pitching has really done it for the Padres (giving up just 298 runs, 64 fewer than the next team)--Peavy is having a career year, Young has been solid, and even Maddux and Wells have been very decent. Of course they have Petco on their side. The Dodgers on the other hand have a better offense, but not a very strong one. Garciaparra's power is sapped, Juan Pierre has a .311 OBP as leadoff hitter, and Furcal still hasn't come into his '06 form. Unfortuately the Dodgers have dealt with pitching injuries notably Jason's Schmidt's shoulder (he's likely done for the year) and Randy Wolf. But the bullpen is strong and will keep them in the race.

Faders

• The White Sox are done. The Buehrle rumors are now squashed after his four-year deal, but they could still trade Dye (what a 180 he's done) and anyone else. The only highlight this year will be Thome's 500th homerun...and maybe a few Guillen tirades against his team.
• Toronto, though tied with the Yankees, simply do not have the pitching to compete. Two of their big offseason signings from two years ago--Burnett and Ryan--have been injured. And Vernon Wells was definetely not worth all that money--there's only one Carlos Beltran (and even he performed horribly the 1st year of his deal).
• Seattle, who's been the biggest suprise nobody talks about is likely to fall out of any run of the NL West or Wild Card. This is the team that was convinced they should sign Beltre and "Dream" Weaver.
• Atlanta has been better than expected. The hey days are over, but they are at best a .500 team and will be passed by the Phillies for 2nd place in the NL East.
• Florida, who's just behind the Phillies, are in third place, but not good enough yet. Maybe firing Girardi wasn't the best idea afterall...
• Colorado has improved with the coming of Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe. Francis has pitched well for a Rockie and Mike Hampton is still MIA.
• Finally, the real St. Louis Cardinals showed up this year. They ain't making the playoffs folks which means there won't be a fluke repeat. The team is old and in need of a makeover.

Surgers

All this talk leaves teams who could come back and recover from a rough first half.

• Minnesota, like last year, should not be counted out. They still have Santana and some good young pitching (Garza, Bosner) that are going to do well. Morneau is having a solid follow up to his (undeserved) MVP. They will be in the AL Central race and Wild Card one.
• In the AL East, don't be suprised if Oakland comes through. Starring Haren, the best pitcher in the Al so far, Bill Beane has some things up his sleeve I'm sure.
• I was just watching Dennis Leary talk about the Red Sox and Yankees and he said he's nervous. "I'd rather be 10 games back than 10 games up", he said. I believe the Yankees have a chance. Despite the up and down, (more down), they have some great players. I'll say more about them on a special Hindsight and Foresight (upcoming).
• The Phillies will make a run at the NL East title. I'm shocked how much more power Rollins has these days, they have Utley the best 2bman in baseball, and Howard is bringing his power back. One setback is Lieber's injury along with Myers still sidelined.
• Finally, in the NL the Cubs are coming back. Maybe all that spending will come through and it will cause Zambrano to re-sign. Either way, slow starts and outbursts aside--somehow the team has rallied within 4.5 games of the Brew Crew.

My original picks this year were as such:
AL East Yankees
AL Central Cleveland
AL West Anaheim
WC Boston

NL East Mets
NL Central Cubs
NL West Dodgers
WC Phillies

with Cleveland and the Dodgers in the World Series. I'm going to stick to those guns, but I'll say Boston wins the AL East and Detroit the WC. Otherwise the rest stays put.

One more Midseason Review to come looking at some players--plus a special Hindsight and Foresight reviewing the Yankees 1st half with a trip down memory lane as I'm going to re-read all the other Hindsight and Foresights.