He's in, He's out, He's Over

This was the scene back on December 22, 2004. Carl Pavano, a Yankee for the next four years at a price of $40 million. And here we are today, Pavano's career with the Yankees is over after getting the green light to get Tommy John surgery.

There are many ways to define a bad free-agent signing. Some players are signed and completely underperform thereafter. Some players are signed past their prime and paid for their past performance. Some are signed on a fluke season. The list can go on and on...

For the Yankees this was a signing where they believed Pavano's now likely fluke season in 2004 in which he won 18 games was a strong indicator that he'd pitch well in the AL East. More than a bad free-agent signing, this seems to be one of bad luck at first glance--or maybe not, read on.

I couldn't remember why the Yankees signed Pavano when I thought back to that offseason. What other free agents did they pass up, what was the pitching situation, and how was this a logical signing?

Then of course I remember this was right after the greatest comeback in baseball history when the Red Sox made everyone believe there was no curse and won it all.

And then I remembered some of the pitchers the Yankees had back then which included: Javier Vazquez, Kevin Brown, Estaban Loaiza, Jose Contreras (who was traded for Loiza), Jon Lieber, and El Duque. All of these guys with the exception of Kevin Brown were either traded (Vazquez) or signed to a different team. So going into 2005 the Yankees had a rotation of Brown, Mussina and then three open slots.

There were other starting pitchers out on the market that year, most notably: Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, Kevin Millwood, Odalis Perez, and Kris Benson--all of whom at the time could be considered a #1, 2, or 3 starter. I remember Pedro meeting with the Boss, but still came to New York with the Mets--other than that I don't think the Yankees pursued anybody else as intensely as Pavano (and Jaret Wright. On a side note as Doug would point out, Pavano was the "player to be named later" when the Red Sox got Pedro back in 1997. Just a tidbit there.). Pavano was coming off of a solid 18-8/3.00 ERA/220+ IP season, was 29 years of age, and a Cy Young candidate going into September 2004. He also probably impressed the Yankees back in the 2003 World Series going 8 innings strong and giving up one run in Game 4 of that series. But even before his '03-'04 seasons, Pavano was always a pitching prospect. So given the Yankees need for a decent starter and the way the market shook out Pavano was signed.

I've dug a little deeper into Pavano's past though, and if I did a "Hindsight and Foresight" on Pavano back in 2004, I may have uttered the words Tommy John Surgery.

Before 2003, Pavano had not pitched a full season in the majors. After his 1997 trade to the Expos, he began having tendinitus in his--you guessed it, his pitching elbow. That was in 1999. Going back to my Baseball Prospectus readings here's what was said about Pavano's health in 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003*:

2000: "... persistent elbow problem put Pavano on the shelf. The Expos have been very careful, getting second and third opinions to make sure that the elbow only requires rest and not surgery."

2001: "Expect to find Pavano’s picture under the definition of "tendinitis." He’s had it in both his shoulder and elbow, and it has kept him from a full season in each of the last three years."

2002: "Pavano’s medical history reads like a script from ER minus the incestuous frolicking by an ethnically diverse cast. Although he managed eight late-season starts, he hasn’t thrown without a burning sensation in his elbow in at least five years."

2003: "Pavano looks very pitcher-ish on the mound, but he’s been beaten like the Washington Generals since his pitching elbow was surgically reattached in 2000."



* By the way, as an aside, if anyone can find a website that keeps track of player's injuries through their careers, please send it to us (rivalryredux@gmail.com). It's ridiculous that I couldn't find a site that shares this. And thanks a bunch if you find it! *





"They finally did it. They killed my fucking car."
Here's the other type of bad free-agent signing: ignoring the injury track record. I believe now that's what this has turned into. Pavano's elbow held up 534 and then some innings since 2003 and that's what finally killed his elbow.


Not only can Pavano be looked at a bad free-agent signing now, but he has been at the root of the Yankees starting pitching woes since 2005. If anyone thinks this year is bad, in 2005 the Yankees brought in Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon, two guys who fortunately did well, but made everyone nervous at first. Last year it was Small and Chacon again as well as guys like Scott Erickson, and Sidney Ponson. It has made the rotation unstable and uncertain.

But now we can say with absolute certainty that Pavano's days are over.



History Repeats Itself--sorta
Before I conclude here though, what's happened with Pavano made me think back to when the last time the Yankees ended up with a starting pitcher they were hoping could complete the rotation who then faded away due to injuries. I remember this guy well because I saw him pitch a 2-hit shutout in 1990 after they traded away Dave Winfield for him. This pitcher was Mike Witt.


Witt's career looks a little different than Pavano's because he got injured after some successful seasons with the Angels. However, after the Yankees signed him to a nice contract after 1990 (which I couldn't find the length of and other information, but he made totals of $2.4 million in '91, $2.9 million in '92, and $2.1 million in 1993) after which he pitched 11 more games for the Yankees and ended his career in 1993.


Pavano's signing will go down as one of the worst for the Yankees, that's for sure. I think if anything, the one good thing that's come out of this is that the Yankees know Pavano will never pitch for them again, and we can move on from the drama he created the last three seasons.