Hindsight and Foresight: Yankees Review July 30th to August 16th

19-7. That's the Yankees record since the All-Star break which is best in the majors. The Red Sox lead has shrunk little by little but there are still 50 games or so left in the season. The good news is that with the Tigers and Mariners posting sub-.500 records since the All-Star break and now the Yankees are back in the Wild Card race. A month ago we were looking at a team below .500 that looked lost and ineffective. Now everyone's hitting and the pitching is much better than it was in April and May. Oh, and A-Rod hit his 500th homer so he can sleep a little better these days.


It's funny how baseball teams can suddenly get back into things as the Yankees have. It works the opposite way as well. But when players play up to or beyond their expectations and your schedule is easy, then you have a chance to play catch up--as is the Yankees situation right now.

This is likely my only post this week, maybe Doug will get back on here, but I don't see myself having free time with this conference for work and all. I got home at 10pm tonight which is early considering how some co-workers had all nighters recently.


Hindsight: July 30th to August 5th

A nice week for the Yankees offensively and pitching wise. And by week's end they were 10 games over .500, which is their best so far this year. Just about everyone on offense from A-Rod to Jeter to Matsui came through, but the most noteworthy player has been Robinson Cano. This happened last year as well after Cano came back from the DL with a hammy injury and tore it up in August and September--almost winning the batting title. It seems his struggles and Matsui's are behind them. Wang contines to be an undervalued major league pitcher and is now at 13-5. What's most amazing is that he has 13 quality starts this year, he's kept the team in some close ones.

Weekly Stats

W-L: 5-1

RS/RA: 53/32

Offensive Numbers (BA/OBP/SLG): .369/.436/.723

Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 4.06/1.37/7.49/.280/.435

Who's Hot: Robinson Cano has pulled out for the second year in a row the "I'll kick your ass in the second half" batting stick. .478/3 HR/9 RBI and a 1.643 OPS to boot. He's raised in BA from .274 to .309 in a matter of a few weeks.

Who's Not: Roger Clemens. Yes the one doing the new cell phone commercial with his wife and has the highest salary in baseball. We haven't talked about Clemens on here in a while, but he was aweful having the shortest outting since the 2000 playoffs. Cano should take some blame as he booted an inning ending double play but it is Roger's job to get us out of the inning.

My Yankee of the Week: Alex Rodriguez. He was trying to hit #500 for so long. Trying to hit homeruns in baseball it never a good thing--look how long it's take Barry Bonds to reach 755 (11 homeruns through May) and now has to hit 756 or how hard Alfonso Soriano tried to hit #40 in 2002 to get into the 40/40 club (Soriano didn't not succeed). Anyway, he's worthy of being the fasest to reach 500 and still worthy of a post on this blog (next week, I swear).

Foresight: August 6th to August 12th
Off to Toronto and Cleveland on the road. This will be the Yankees first trip back to Toronto since the "ha" or "mine" or whatever A-Rod yelled incident, so you have to wonder what will happen if anything. It's that time of year where you have to start looking at other teams' schedules especially indivisons where a race is tight or where the Wild Card race is tight. For the Yankees, Detroit, whom they play in a couple weeks at home, has been falling a la their 2006 style, but Seattle has been under .500 since the break as well. I've said it once and I'll say it again, the Yankees second half schedule helps them if they can only beat the teams that they need to win against. Finally they are doing that after the break, but need to keep it up.

Slight Return

While I am still living in a state of almost paleolithic squalor in the absence of an internet connection at my home, it appears that I have some time here at work to throw down some thoughts, so I wanted to do so while I had the chance.

Kudos to Teddy for keeping up with everything in my extended absence - soon I will be back to my 3/4 posts per week, and I've certainly been letting this lag too long.

The main points of discussion here have to be deadline deals - the Sox nabbed Eric Gagne, the Yankees Wilson Betemit.

What I know about Eric Gagne is that he, like Flash Gordon, was once a promising starter who never quite lived up to his promise who was then converted to closer, set a record for converting consecutive Save opportunities, and then had his career derailed by injuries.

He seems to have bounced back into circulation sooner than Flash did in the late '90s/the early part of this decade, and his name still conjures images of Eckerslian dominance rather than reliable setup work and a pencil-thin mustache. Gagne is likely to be simply a rent-a-player, (a la Larry Anderson) but he should be a Class A free agent, which means beaucoup de compensation picks for the Red Sox, and I don't have any concerns about Kason Gabbard, David Murphy, or Engel Beltre beginning a decade and a half long career of Hall of Fame excellence starting next season.

The deal essentially gives the Sox three closers (Papelbon, Gagne, and Okajima) and will mean fewer high-stress innings for the excellent but still inexperienced Manny Delcarmen. Donnelly is out for the season now, and Timlin may be going on the DL to make room when Schilling comes back. Javier Lopez is the only other lefty in the pen, so a decision may have to be made between Snyder and Tavarez at some point. If Timlin goes on the DL until the end of August, then the Sox can avoid having to make a decision once rosters expand. If the choice did come down to Snyder or Tavarez, I'd take Snyder (sure he only throws in the 60s, but he doesn't have the Chernobylesque meltdowns that Tavarez does) but I think the Sox would hold onto Tavarez due to the amount they're paying him, and in honor of services rendered as a starter this season.

As for the Yankees and Betemit... huh? The only way this makes sense is that they wanted to trade Scott Proctor before his arm physically fell of his body and the Yankees' medical premiums went up. I know the logic is that Betemit could play some first... or can fill the Luis Sojo/Enrique Wilson Memorial Supersub role, or that he will be the in-house replacement if A-Rod opts out at the end of the season.

Say what?

What I know about Wilson Betemit was that he was touted coming up for the Braves, who were forced to trade him due to Chipper Jones refusal to permanently move off of third base even if he played the position like an elephant in a tutu. He then went to the Dodgers and was such a crushing disappointment that the Dodgers have resorted to playing Nomar "Banana Arm" Garciaparra at third base.

So what doomsday scenario should Yankees fans be waiting for if A-Rod opts out and Betemit steps in? I see a situation where the Boss, in one last blaze of senile, domineering glory, goes over Cash's head to overpay for Andruw Jones (the Braves will be using that money to extend Tex anyway) and the Yankees will wind up with Betemit at third, Jones in center, and Damon at first.

Of course, that's a lot less likely to happen than for Kyle Farnsworth to make disparaging remarks about, say... the NYFD. He hasn't done that yet (as far as I know) but golly, who hasn't that boy alienated lately?

Inactivity

I have returned, but my posting for the next couple of weeks will be lacking. So apologies to our readers--we wish this was all we did, but unfortunately like most of you all we're typical working people with lives (I think we both have lives). The excuses of late, for me a wedding/vacation and conference coming up for work (I am a slave to my employer right now), for Doug a continued lack of internet in the home.

But today this blog needed a post since there was the trade deadline and all the other day. This year's trading was the most anti-climatic in quite a while with the biggest trade being Mark Texiera going to the Braves. It was a solid trade for the Braves who got a slugger and reliever (Octavio Dotel) to make a return to the top of the NL East. Other than that, there were smaller but possibly significant trades. I won't review them all, but should discuss the Yankees trade and Red Sox trade.

The Red Sox got Eric Gagne for Kason Gabbard, David Murphy, and Engil Beltre. Murphy was once a solid prospect but has lost that status mulling around in the minors forever. I haven't heard of Beltre but Gabbard pitched decently in seven starts for the injured Curt Schilling. In my opinion this was a solid trade considering the Sox now have Gagne, Okajima and Papelbon to hold down the pen in the late innings. Gagne certainly isn't the Cy Young fireball pitcher he was three or four years ago, but he's done well enough as the Rangers closer this year. The Red Sox also traded away Joel Pinero to the Cardinal for a player to be named later. I can't say much other than Pinero's career has fallen apart in recent years and he was ineffective in the Red Sox pen.

For the Yankees, Scott Proctor was shipped to the Dodgers for utility infielder Wilson Betemit. Proctor was having a bad season to start with and I think the Dodgers must have seen his smoke signal when he lit up his glove and other equipment. Betemit, who I don't know much about, is young (25 years old) and small for his height (6' 2'', 155 pounds), but has some power. Last year between the Braves and Dodgers he hit 18 homeruns, but did have a knack for striking out a lot (102 times in 373 ABs). His numbers so far this year are way below last years. But he's a utility guy and perhaps he's better in the field (I have no numbers on that). If they Yankees decide to keep him after this year you can say so long to Miguel Cairo.

As the Yankee fan on here, it was good to see the Yankees hold their ground and not trade away prospects like Phil Hughes. With the way the Yankees have been playing of late, a huge blockbuster trade was not really needed--what more would another superstar type add anyway when the team is just figuring out it can win a lot of games in a short amount of time. Additionally, the Yankees had no significant injury that would hamper them for the rest of the season so the Cashman philosophy of rebuilding continues to march onward.

Back to the blog though, I will continue the Hindsight and Foresight next week, write a post on A-Rod and his contract (word to A-Rod, take a lesson from Bonds and stop trying to hit #500 every time you're up), and write something about the Red Sox.

Hindsight and Foresight: Yankees Review July 16th to July 30th

My month has gone from a flurry of posts to a drip, mostly because it's gotten way too hectic at my day job. I should actually have a blog about my day job if only to bitch about how last minute things come together--like preparing for this conference we have in a week and a half. So I'm going to spend the next two weeks in a pressure cooker with some late nights and I'm sure at least one night where I cut loose at a bar.

Anywho, the Yankees have been great since the All-Star break so let's break it down:

Hindsight: July 16 to July 22nd

The offense exploded against Tampa Bay Saturday and Sunday putting up 38 runs in the two games capped by a season high 21-4 victory on Saturday. Everyone has been hitting including the just called up Shelley Duncan who hit three homeruns in his first three games as a Yankee and got three curtain calls for it. Wang continues to dominate in his own fashion and now Clemens is finally getting some run support. On the comeback trail are Jason Giambi and Phil Hughes who could be back with the team as early as next week but they shouldn't rush either guy back in my opinion.

Weekly Stats
W-L: 6-2
RS/RA: 66/26
Offensive Numbers (BA/OBP/SLG): .343/.415/.522
Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 3.45/1.42/7.4/.270/.416
Who's Hot: Alex Rodriguez. 100 RBIs in 100 games is the best pace to date. And he had a productive week.
Who's Not: Brian Bruney. He got hit hard in his relief innings last week
My Yankee of the Week: David "Shelley" Duncan. Yes, this is the son of St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan and brother of clumsy OF Chris Duncan (also on the Cards). Duncan hit three homeruns since coming up (as a 27 year old rookie) and got a curtain call for all three. He even hit two in one game.

Foresight: July 23rd to July 29th
I am not going to say comeback, but the Yankees are slowly creeping up in the Wild Card and AL East standings. Honestly any short losing streak by Cleveland or the Red Sox will make the Yankees fun to watch again as we're heading into the dog days of summer and the last quarter of the season. But I've seen how this Yankee season has gone so if trends continue, this current streak is just another blip on the radar. However, it seems the Yankees are having fun--the young and jubilant Melky and Cano are having fun in the dugout it seems with their teammates and everyone looks more relaxed right now. This next week the Yanks are on the road in Kansas City and back at Baltimore (including the wrap up of the suspended game I went to). As noted during the All-Star break, the Yankees are playing sub .500 teams to start off this 1st half and thus far they are ripping them all another you know what.

A little note to end things here, I'll be computerless for the next few days as I head up to Massachusetts for a wedding and to visit the good ol' UMass campus. So probably no Hindsight and Foresight next week, but seriously once this damn conference is over the posts will keep rolling out. I'd like to get to one on the Red Sox after my trip to the state of Mass if only because I don't know what's going on with Doug's situation right now and something needs to be said about them for blogging purposes.

755

Barry Bonds. Hank Aaron. Home run record. Number 755 was hit 31 years ago on this day and has been the top record in baseball since.

But pretty soon baseball's most coveted record will be broken in a very dark time in baseball. What will remembered more when Barry Bonds hits number 756 is not how special an accomplishment having hit the most home runs in baseball history is, but how Bonds possibly reached that milestone since 1998. This era in baseball, now known as The Steroid Era, has the face of Barry Bonds and always will--even if there is no direct evidence that Bonds took steroids, something I am sure he will deny until the day he dies, Bonds has been the one most discussed in it as he broke the single season homerun record in 2001 and six years later is about to break the career record.

I do not wish to have this post be an opinion piece on what I think of Barry Bonds. I'll rehash some arguments about his career, the era he's played in, and the homerun record he'll be breaking soon. But I do want to point out in here how much of a conflict Bonds and his homerun chase have been in baseball.


Why is this the Greatest Record in Baseball?

Homeruns are fun to watch. They are dramatic, entertaining, and a thing of beauty. A homerun in baseball is the only hit in the game where the player who got the hit also scores during it. And it certainly helps to have runners on base during a homerun because everyone comes home in a homerun.

It wasn't until Babe Ruth broke the single season homerun record in 1919, when he hit 29 homeruns, that homeruns became more and more common in baseball. Before that time the homerun wasn't what it is today because players hardly hit them. There are many reasons for that which I won't get into, but the point is since that time homeruns began to be hit with greater frequency after 1919. Additionally, certain players like Ruth became known as homerun hitters because they could consistently hit homeruns year after year.

The single most reason why the homerun became popularized and is the greatest record in baseball history is because it is the biggest hit in baseball. And by biggest, I mean it puts runs on the board, it can be hit a far ways, and for fans it is an amazing feat to watch because not a whole lot of people can hit a homerun.

As baseball history was made over the years, the homerun hitters paved the way decade after decade. From Babe Ruth to Mel Ott to Ted Williams to Mickey Mantle to Hank Aaron to today's hitters like Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, and Ken Griffey, Jr--the homerun has remained what it is over the course of the game.

Bonds, Homeruns, and Steroids

In the past few years, evidence has surfaced that baseball players have taken performance enhancing drugs--steroids, human hormone growth, among other things. After the 1998 season when Mark McGwire (70 homeruns) broke Roger Maris' single season homerun record (61 in 1961) he admitted to taking androstenedione, an over-the-counter muscle enhancing product that was not banned by baseball at that time. Since that year, Maris' once long standing record of 61 homeruns has been bested six times (twice by McGwire, three times by Sosa, and once by Bonds). You can't forget about the ongoing BALCO investigation which Barry Bonds and Jason Giambi testified in front of a grand jury on whether they took steroids from the drug manufacturer. And there's also the George Mitchell investigation. There have also been books like Jose Canseco's Juiced and Game of Shadows that have pointed to certain players usage and alleged rampant steroid usage in baseball that may well have influenced homerun hitting during this era. And even more recently players like Jason Giambi, Jose Canseco, and the late Ken Caminiti have all admitted to using some form of performance enhancing drugs. But for whatever evidence there is, the culture of baseball has kept steroids tight lipped because no one likes to out another player or their teammate.

Before 1998, Barry Bonds was already on a Hall of Fame track. By that time he'd won three MVP awards, had hit 374 homeruns (end of 1997), stolen 417 bases, and won seven gold gloves. He was certainly one of the best players in the game at that point and given his age of 33 going into the 1998 season he was likely past the prime of his career. He'd been around major league baseball his whole life as the son of ball player Bobby Bonds and cousin of Reggie Jackson, so I think it's fair to say Bonds' life has been about baseball and he was ingrained in its culture from a young age.

I point out Bonds' age because statistical evidence shows that baseball players on a whole have their best seasons sometime between ages 26 and 28. After that, their skills begin to decline and it is more likely than not, they won't put up their best numbers of their career. So from saying that, it is likely that a homerun hitter will slow down his pace in hitting homeruns, but we know that for Bonds that was not the case.

I'll refer you to the chart below to make my case. Here are the top 10 homerun hitters between 1998-2006 with their combined homeruns for that period and their ages during that time in ().

1. Sammy Sosa (29-36) 447
2. Alex Rodriguez (22-30) 400
3. Manny Ramirez (26-34) 361
4. Barry Bonds (33-41) 360
5. Carlos Delgado (26-34) 340
6. Jim Thome (27-35) 339
7. Vladimir Guerrero (22-30) 326
8. Andruw Jones (21-28) 319
9. Jason Giambi (27-35) 304
10. Rafael Palmeiro (33-40) 298

The chart is pretty simple but points out this. Ball players who are in this top 10 list for this period, really started hitting homeruns in their 20s. The exceptions are Rafael Palmeiro, who embarassed his way out of baseball in 2005 after testing positive for being on the juice and Barry Bonds, who is 4th on the list but could be higher if he hadn't missed most of 2005. There's also Sammy Sosa at #1 who was 29 in 1998 just on the cusp of decline, but had the best years of his career after then. I'd love to look historically to see how many homeruns all players over 30 have hit in their career, but I didn't have the time to do that.

But my point is this, Bonds hit more homeruns the second half of his career (1998 to today, 389 and counting) than when he was young and conceivably in his prime before all of this. He's also been able to completely change the way pitchers pitch to him--he was intentionally walked 120 times in 2004 (the record before Bonds had been 45 by Willie McCovy in 1970)--this was almost double than from the year before (61). From 2001 to 2004 he won four MVPs in a row--never been done before, won the batting title twice which he had never done previously, and went to his first World Series (which Barry always said he was all about, but hasn't mentioned a thing about winning a ring since 2002). He also shattered single season records in on-base percentage (.609 in 2004, Ted Williams held record at .553), slugging percentage (.863 in 2004, Babe Ruth held record at .849 in 1920), OPS (1.421 in 2004, Babe Ruth held record at 1.382 in 1920), and at-bats per homerun (6.52 in 2001 or every 6 or so at bats he hit a homerun, McGwire held the record at 7.58).

All I will say is that this raises some eyebrows from a statistical standpoint.

Will Bud Selig Attend?

With all the controversy swelling around Hank Aaron's homerun record of 755, Bonds will break it and break it soon--and one leader in baseball has to make a choice. If you haven't kept up with this story, Bud Selig the commissioner of baseball, has seen the steroid controversy occur on his watch and become public. Although Selig wouldn't admit it, the Mitchell investigation is pretty much targeted at Bonds. And so the way things are going, it's evident that Selig is not happy and does not support Bonds' pursuit of the all time homerun record.

Already, Hank Aaron, a close friend of Selig's, has said he would not be present to see Bonds break his homerun record. But there's been some question if Bud Selig himself would. Despite Selig's feelings and considerable embarassment over the entire Steroid Era, it looks like he will attend.

While theoretically this would be a time of celebration in baseball it is not. With the exception of San Francisco Giants fans, Barry Bonds is likely the most hated sports figure today. He's also never been one of the nicest sports figures carrying an ego, arrogance, and anti-team attitude most of his career. So for THE record in baseball to be broken given the circumstances and the man who will do it, baseball finds itself in a very precarious position.

Bonds' Legacy

While no one knows how much longer Barry Bonds will play, his legacy has certainly been set by the last half of his career. We may never truly know if Barry Bonds took steroids or if he did how it helped him hit homeruns, but we know he will forever be caught up in the Steroid Era of baseball as its ugly face. It has been in part because of Barry Bonds that when a player suddenly hits 35 homeruns when he never had before, fans grow suspicious of steroid use. But it has taken a player like Barry Bonds for baseball to recognize that its own culture had a problem and it needed to be fixed if anything for the integrity of the game and its greatest record.

Gettin' Back to that Bandwagon Post

I'm finally getting back to the bandwagon fans post I wrote a couple weeks back. My first reaction after writing it was that I hope I didn't piss anyone off. I didn't get any angry responses other than from my girlfriend whom I made read the post. But I'll get to her reply in a bit. My intent in writing the post was to get some feedback on this blog and write something controversial. And I say controversial in the sense that it probably challenged some people's perspectives in being a fan of a sport and having a favorite team in that sport. I didn't intend to put any fan down, but wanted to note there's a difference between what I called a "true" fan and a bandwagon fan.

Before getting to the responses, I wanted to clarify some things I did not say in the post and this is mainly in reaction to my girlfriend who thought my post belittling and that I expected readers to know everything about baseball. Well, let me clarify a few things:

1) I never said bandwagon fans were bad for baseball, the Rivalry, or any sport or team.

2) I never put down bandwagon fans because they didn't know everything. My fuss is that they don't know the basic stuff like how the game is played or who's on the team.

3) I never said not to purchase a teams paraphrinalia in whatever color you like--the links are on the post to buy stuff.

4) I never said a bandwagon fan has no feelings of love for the team they "root" for. I only question that love.

5) I never said all New Yorkers are liable to push you on the subway tracks.

Now that the air is cleaner, let's get to the responses--thanks to everyone to replied. The first one is from PJB (a close friend of Doug and I):

One thing to point out is that however annoying they may be, bandwagon fans are usually very good for the teams they happen to be supporting. There's been some research published at Baseball Prospectus on the chasm in revenue between playoff/non-playoff teams. That huge gulf can be explained partly by TV revenue and playoff ticket sales, but also because of the surge in local attention and popularity that can persist for years after a flag raises. That money of course ends up going towards keeping the team competitive (big market teams) or prompting a move or sale (nationals).

Have faith Teddy, and remember that no bandwagon fan feels the elation of winning after suffering through years of failure. Or in the Yankees case, a single down year like this one.

Yes, very good to point out BP's research and connect it with the post. Certainly bandwagon fans are a good source of revenue for the game--not only do they buy gear, they will go to games as long as their team is good. I think PJB is correct to say that baseball needs bandwagon fans for the good of the business of baseball. Afterall, how would us fans pay for part of those salaries?

And I do remember my elation in 1996--I was at a Halloween party and went running around the place cheering my head off. Probably one of the best moments of my senior year in high school aside from graduating and getting into college.

Another comment comes from Captain Caveman who has a pretty good story:

I have a related story. Back in 1999 I had the opportunity to attend the All-Star game here in Boston. My friend and I had a terrific day as we were able to play catch in the infield at Fenway Park. (He used to work behind the scenes for the Celtics, and is now the head trainer for the Pacers...so he has connections) Anyway, we were offered 2 tickets at $150 each for standing room only. We scraped together the funds and gladly bought them.So here we are at an All-Star game. We are both big fans of baseball and feel somehow honored to be at an All-Star game in our hometown. After a few innings, we became fairly angry. The whole crowd seemed interested in everything BUT the game. They all talked on their cell phones to their friends...'yeah, I'm at the ball game and your not...I don't know who started...I'm not sure who's on the mound right now but he got some people out...' We looked at each other, Thats Pedro fucking Martinez on the mound. How do these people get tickets to this and not even know whats going on? Meanwhile, honest fans who follow the sport daily (people who not only know who Pedro is, but that he is starting) are left to watch from home. Granted, I was able to get tickets, but we paid face value for them and waited for several hours to know if they were even available.We still enjoyed the game, it's just shocking to witness the stupidity. Why spend the money to go to the game when you have no idea what's going on??


Nice story--I hope the fans knew who Ted Williams was when he came out onto the field during that All-Star game. I won't go on record to say that bandwagon fans have priced true fans out of ballparks (Caveman's example is the All-Star game which costs more) or that bandwagon fans are rolling in money, but I can share in his annoyance. Afterall this was the All-Star game in Boston where in 1999 Pedro was the best pitcher in the AL. But in answer to his question at the end of the comment my reply is--I don't know--just to say you were there maybe?

Finally, from Jim:

Hey – great post on the bandwagon fans. Another thing you can’t appreciate as a bandwagon fan is the love/hate relationship Yankees fans have with their own team – the NY Post front page had this teaser for the sports section: “Yankees win one in a row.”

Quite true. Also the love/hate relationship with certain players is quite true.

I'll end it here with some final thoughts. I don't hate bandwagon fans. They may be annoying, but there is some good they bring to the game. And while I may have sounded a bit arrogant and bitchy in my post, I personally want to transform bandwagon fans into true fans of the game of baseball (and to the Yankees of course. Though my posts may create some Red Sox fans). I understand not all fans follow every little detail or watch every single game--even I don't know everything. So I hope this blog can shed some light on how to have a lifelong relationship with the game of baseball and a team, and appreciate all of it for what it is.

Hindsight and Foresight: Yankee Midseason Review

I'm not bothering reviewing the last week before the All-Star Break because it's more important to talk about the Yankees first half. As my weekly Hindsight and Foresights go, it's been a rough season for the most part as a Yankee fan. Mostly because they have the talent, they have the highest payroll in baseball, and have simply had a lot of bad luck. And there have been a lot of other things happen as well with Giambi's steroid talk to A-Rod's night out in Toronto, and waiting for Clemens which have been, in my view, distractions for the team (add to that list the Yankees announcement to negotiate with A-Rod and fueling the Scott Boras fire).

Of course there's no way of knowing with more good luck and less distractions exactly how much better off in the standings the team would be than they are now. Simply put, the Yankees aren't playing like the Yankees of the last 12 years and that's why they sit at 42-43, 10 games behind their Rivals the Boston Red Sox. And Boston has certainly proved their a great team this year, despite what Doug may say on here.

Rather than trying to win the AL East this year, the Yankees need to set their sights on climbing up in the Wild Card standings if they want to push for the playoffs. Currently they're 8.5 games in back of Cleveland. But then you look at teams like Cleveland, Detroit, Anaheim or even Toronto and Seattle and you have to wonder even if the Yankees even have a chance to make it. And what success will they have if they even make the playoffs?

I'm not downplaying the possibility that the Yankees could come back and make the World Series this year. It's possible, but quite unlikely. I figured a season like this would happen one year or another where the Yankees are a team of superstars, many past their prime or entering the downturn in their careers, and suddenly a lot of them have off years, get injured, etc and it all shows in their record. There will be a lesson in this and that is now is the time for the Yankees seriously acknowledge they need to rebuild from the farm system up. Think about it. In five years or so Posada, Rivera, Clemens, Damon, Abreu and others will either be retired or not as effective. And there still isn't a whole lot in the pipeline.

Well, enough babbling for now, here's how the team's stats look for the first half:

W-L: 42-43
RS/RA: 456/386
Offensive numbers (BA/HR/OBP/SLG/): .282/89/.356/.438
Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 4.36/1.39/5.46/.262/.406
First half MVP: Alex Rodriguez .317/30/86/.413/.665
First half bum: Kei Igawa 2-2/7.14/46.7 IP/33 K/23 BB


I'm going to break down the discussion of the first half into four parts: 1) The Injury Plague, 2) The Underperformers, 3) The A-Rod factor, and 4) More Bullpen Abuse followed by comments for the second half and beyond.

The Injury Plague

There have been plenty of injuries for the Yankees this year. Some big (Pavano getting Tommy John) and some small (Clemens' fatigued groin delaying his first start). But it all adds up to piecemeal patchwork to fill holes. Many of those holes were in the starting rotation--the Yankees broke the record for most starters in a season with 12. This started early on as Wang was set back a month, Mussina landed on the DL for two weeks, Hughes went down twice, Karstens broke his leg, and Pavano--well we've discussed that at length. It also affected the offense too. Though continuing his streak of not being on the DL Damon's been hobbled since game one of the season with leg problems, Matsui went down with a hamstring injury, Giambi's season is all but over, Mientkiewicz (whose name I still can't spell without looking it up) got run over, and A-Rod got a bit of a scare last week. All in all, injuries have made the rotation and lineup inconsistent.

The Underperformers

There have also been players who have struggled. Damon is certainly one who has struggled because he can't play everyday and his hobbled by some dents. This looks to be an off year for Damon who still continues to leadoff despite a .344 SLG. There was also Giambi, who was hot between April 14th and May 6th, but forgot how to hit a ball after that before landing on the DL. It's taken Matsui a bit longer than usual to find his swing, but he picked it up in June. Two disappointments thus far have been Abreu and Cano. Cano however, didn't really bust out until the second half last year as did Abreu, so it could be a matter of time. But to say the least Abreu has been disappointing at the plate and even in the field at times as he seems to have lost a few steps. Also as noted here the Yankees first base spot has been a merry-go-round (Mientkiewicz, Phelps, Cairo, Posada, and Damon have all played there at some point)--and it's been a sore spot for the team.

On the pitching side, it took Mussina two months to work out the kinks--it was starting to look like 2005 for him for a while. And other than Hughes, the Yankees rookies (DeSalvo, Clippard, Rasner, Wright, and Karstens) have been pretty bad. The worst rookie, who technically isn't a rookie, is Kei Igawa--noted above as the first half bum. There's nothing else to say other than Igawa has been terrible at best. The only credit I can give him is when he came into a game at Fenway and pitched 6 shutout innings of relief in a game the Yankees needed to win (they won 3-1). And the bullpen--Vizcaino is all over the place, Farnsworth is himself, and Proctor has lost a few pretty badly. But more on that group in a sec.

The A-Rod Factor

Now that the cats out of the bag that the Yankees are going to renegotiate something with A-Rod's contract, I'm planning a post more about him perhaps next week. But A-Rod has carried the Yankees offense even when it was non-existent. He had an unbelieveable April, a lackluster May, but refocused and was great again in June. And even when he yelled "mine" and got caught chilling with a hooker, he didn't let it get to him. I guess only Yankees fans can get to A-Rod. If he keeps up his pace, he would be in the running for his 3rd MVP season (up against Magglio Ordonez) and it could potentially be his best seasons ever. Here's how his first half compares with this first half from his other two MVP season (2003 and 2005):

2003 .285/.373/.544 22 HR 60 RBI
2005 .317/.426/.582 23 HR 72 RBI
2007 .317/.413/.665 30 HR 86 RBI

More Bullpen Abuse

I don't analyze bullpens here much, but I've noted how abused the Yankees bullpen is (overall they've pitched about 37% of all IP). This is because Joe Torre does not have much concern for overworking some relievers. I understand this year is a bit different because early on rookie pitchers were leaving the game very early almost everyday. But what erks me is how often he turned to Vizcaino and Farnsworth who have allowed teams to come back and win ones that shouldn't have been lost. In all, six Yankees have pitched relief in at least 30 games each. And let's not forget, Mariano has just 11 saves.


Foresight

The Schedule Ahead

As Buster Onley points out in his blog, the Yankees open the second half with 28 games against teams currently with a winning percentage below .500 (up until August 16th). That doesn't mean much since the Yankees were 16-16 against teams with that winning percentage this first half.

But looking at it, the Yankees schedule could favor them if, as I keep saying over and over again, they beat the teams they can and need to beat. Here's how the rest of their schedule breaks down:

Tampa Bay (13 games), Boston (6 games), Toronto (14 games), Baltimore (12 games), Kansas City (10 games), Detroit (8 games), Cleveland (3 games), Chicago (3 games), Los Angeles (3 games), Seattle (3 games)

Time to Step it Up

If you use the Pythagorean formula to get W-L, the Yankees should be 49-36. This certainly means the Yankees have been unlucky. To note, the Yankees also are doing poorly in one run games, going 6-14. And they just don't give Clemens run support after spending all that money. And there are many other things. Jorge Posada used to say it best during the dynasty years, "we grind it!" They really need to.

Here's some quick-and-dirty math I did. Since the Wild Card was introduced in 1994, the average number of wins the WC team had (1995-2006) is about 94. With the Yankees at 42-43, they will have to go 52-25 the rest of the way to get 94 wins. And that's contending against Detroit, Cleveland, Minnesota, Anaheim, and perhaps Seattle.

Rebuilding

The Yankees are a team who are rebuilding. It may not look like it at first, but the Sheffield and Johnson trades were just the beginning. At the end of the season Posada, Rivera, Clemens, Pettitte, and probably A-Rod will be free agents. A-Rod aside, Posada and Rivera will be back and finish their careers in NY. Other than those guys, next year (2008) will be Giambi's last contract year, Abreu's final season as well in his contract, and I believe Matsui is signed through 2009 like Damon. At some point Wang and Cano need to be locked up into long-term deals. But beside whether to sign these players, the Yankees of the future should not be all from the free agent market, but from within. We're already seeing a few of them--Cano, Wang, Hughes, Melky--and there will be more to come as long as the Yankees retain their prospect talent.

New Leadership

When the season ends for the Yankees this year, expect the leadership to change. I truly believe this is Torre's last season. I have said whether he wins a World Series or not, he's gone. It's not all Torre's fault that the Yankees haven't won a World Series since 2000, but in the end it falls on him. If last year wasn't an indicator that Torre was on the hook, I can't imagine was the Boss is saying privately. The team is going to change and rebuild and someone new will be needed at the helm. It will be between Mattingly and Girardi.

As for Cashman, he's publically on the hook. I doubt he'll get the can, but he'll likely lose decision making powers if the Yankees don't make the playoffs or don't win the World Series.

Which brings us to the Boss. I posted on him last week, but he wants one more ring (probably more) and does anything to do that. It will be an interesting offseason no matter how this ends.