Yankees 2008 Preview

I didn't forget about the Yankees preview as I wanted to do it before the Yankees first game. Luckily it was rained out today and it gives me the chance to write it while they are still 0-0. I'll just right into it.

There are many changes going on in the Bronx--new starters, new owners making decisions (and comments on Red Sox Nation among other things), a new manager, new contracts, and a new stadium in the works. And with changes come many questions--the biggest being (as it is every year) can the Yankees make the World Series?

Well, the word "can" is probably the wrong thing to say. "Can" they? Yes, they have a shot, but so do 29 other teams albeit the Yankees chances are better than the majority of them. But going further, will they is clearly another question. And I'll put it up front that no I do not think the Yankees will be in the World Series this year. Playoffs? There have been a few times after 2001 I said they would not and been wrong every time. They seem to make it every year either with a key trade or certain player stepping up--you name it. I think the offense will enable them to make it this year, so yes, the Yankees will be in the playoffs in 2008.

But there are more important questions at hand than a World Series. This is a new team of sorts, with a semi-rebuilding plan in place, and I'm pretty excited to see how it will turn out. What I've come up with is a list of my Top 5 questions for the Yankees this year with my speculative answers.

TOP 5 QUESTIONS for the Yankees

1. How will Joe Girardi manage in his first year?

I think Giradi was the right choice, but it will take fans a while to get used to the other Joe who was part of the last Yankee dynasty, has a year of managing under his belt, and overall is a smart baseball man. One thing I expect to change is Girardi's use of the bullpen. During Torre's reign there was always that one or two relievers, excluding Rivera, that Torre relied on--sometimes not to his benefit. Remember Tom Gordon, Proctor, Quantrill, among others? I don't think that will happen. I also would not expect Girardi to manage the way he did with the 2005 Marlins--that was a young team without much veteran presence. With the 2008 Yankees, it's a mix of vets and rookies. I think Girardi will be great for the pitching staff having been a great catcher and teaching Posada the ropes in the late 90s. But overall, I expect Girardi to be more of a manager that relies on stats and is more strategic than Torre to get the W.

2. Is the young pitching that good?

There are a few young pitchers coming in--two into the starting rotation with a third on its way. To me Phil Hughes is the more exciting of the group, but he has less of the hype this year. We saw flashes of how great Hughes could be last year giving up no hits in his second start and pitching very well in the playoffs. Then there's Ian Kennedy who is compared to a young Mike Mussina (with the benefit of having Mussina on the team). He only made three starts, was great, but Kennedy comes down to how long he can go. There's also Russ Ohlendorf in the pen. Aquired from the Tigers in the Sheffield deal my guess is that he should be limited, I don't know what situations he is right for, but he's probably a middle inning reliever. Finally, there's Joba who's starting off the year in the pen and will eventually be worked into the starting rotation. There's lots of hype around Joba and we all saw why last year. Don't put him out with the bugs, but the one thing he does not need is to listen to the hype, develop an ego, and then we find ourselves disappointed just like those Matrix 2 and 3 movies. The transition will be important with Joba however, if Pettitte or Mussina go down with an injury I'd expect them to go with Joba immediately.

This doesn't really answer the question because honestly we don't know if they will be good. It could be a mixed bag, these guys are young and have many mistakes to learn from. But the talent is there and it's a great thing for a staff who the last few years has been old and decrepid.

3. Can the team stay healthy?

I'm no Will Carroll from BP and never liked biology all that much, so this is really a shot in the dark. There are certain guys I'm worried about namely Jason Giambi, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada, Hideki Matsui, and Johnny Damon mostly because of their age and past injuries (or their position like Posada). Last year it was the pitching that was injured early and often. As long as pitch counts are monitored for the youngins that situation should be okay. I'm going to guess the Yankees deal with some injuries more of the offensive side of the ball this year. I think Damon will be on the DL for sure and Giambi is highly likely as well.

4. Will the Steinbrenner Bros. take on Dad's philophy?

There was a great article about how different the Steinbrenner brothers are. Hal (or is it Hank--I can't keep them straight yet) is 11 years younger, cool, calm and mild mannered and handles the numbers. Hank is more like his father (and looks like him too) and so far has "spoke his mind" as he puts it on A-Rod and the Red Sox. While this is something we'll know more of over time I don't think there will ever be another George Steinbrenner. Both brothers will want to win, but I don't think the antics are there.

5. Will the Yankees make the playoffs?

Yes. My guess is that the Yankees get the Wild Card again. There offense is too good and barring any injuries will compete with the Tigers to be the best offense in the AL. Getting to the playoffs won't be easy--the Tigers are better, the Indians are great, Seattle made improvements, the Angels are in the mix and oh yeah, there's those Red Sox who won this World Series thing to worry about.

Yankees 2007 Review

Finally I've sat myself down to review the season past for the Yankees. With spring training in the air and the countdown to the season opener ticking away the Yankees are looking forward to a new season with a new manager, two new Steinbrenner's at the helm, some new blood, and hopefully some new lessons learned. But let's not get ahead of ourselves--what happened to the Yankees in 2007 was quite literally a tale of two halves and one of their most amazing comebacks in their history. Yet, because of their disappointing postseason everyone forgets what got them there.

So Let's Go Back to the Beginning...

Just about a year ago the Yankees were essentially in the same position they are now bowing out of the first round of the playoffs to the Detroit Tigers. Derek Jeter was coming off an MVP-snubbed season, Matsui would be back from his wrist injury, Abreu was looking to continue what he had started since being traded, Pettitte was back where he was meant to be, a former strikeout king from Japan was taking the mound, and the expectation was that the Yankees would be back in the World Series. But April started off very ugly and it didn't get any better in May.

I can point to two main factors why the ugliness ensued. 1) The pitching staff was very bad because they were hurt or underperforming and 2) The offense got off to an extremely slow start.

On the first point, it's amazingly funny to see what the opening day pitching rotation was:

Wang

Pettitte

Mussina

Igawa

Pavano

Wang missed the first few weeks of the season with hamstring problems, Mussina went down with an injury after two starts, Igawa was lit up having no command, and Pavano lasted all of two starts. So in came Darrel Rasner, Jeff Karstens, and even a very early call up of Phil Hughes. And then out went Karstens with a broken leg and Hughes with a hamstring injury. In May Rasner also went down with an injury so in came Tyler Clippard, Matt DeSolvo, and a guy named Chase Wright who gave up four bombs in a row at Fenway on April 22nd.

All this is to say the Yankees used 13 different starting pitchers within the first two months of the season. And the bullpen wasn't any better as they relied early and often on Vizcaino (7.27 ERA end of May) and Farnsworth (4.71 ERA end of May) who both struggled to hold down leads and do their jobs.

One would think though despite a rough first two months on the pitching side that the Yankees amazong offense from the top of the order to the bottom would make up for it. Well they didn't. At best they were league average and probably below average for the AL East racking up 5.25 runs/game. The light of hope in April was Alex Rodriguez's dominating start, which quickly went silent in May. Jorge Posada also had a hot two months, but for the rest of the Yankees there wasn't a whole lot going on.

Bobby Abreu's bat went nowhere in April and May out of the #3 hole as did Robinson Cano's. Johnny Damon and Matsui were very cold in April and Damon started showing signs that he was banged up and playing hurt. Giambi also got injured in May on a homerun trot in Toronto and while Mientkiewicz was great defensively at first, he certainly had no power.

And all of this is to say the Yankee lineup had no consistency either. If Jeter got on, Abreu couldn't knock him in. Giambi wasn't taking walks. Damon couldn't lead off. Nothing seemed to work.

However, once June rolled around the Yankees began turning their season around slowly. On May 3oth they were 13.5 games behind the AL East leading Boston Red Sox and then at the half way point they were 42-43, 11 games behind the Red Sox. Then suddenly in the second half, the Yankees became the best team in baseball

The Turn Around

In the second half the Yankees went 51-25 and were 1.5 games within first place on September 23rd. The offense exploded hitting 90 HRs in July and August and scoring nearly seven runs/game. Abreu and Cano started hitting well and Alex Rodriguez was in MVP form. Suprisingly Jorge Posada was suddenly competing for a batting title as a catcher at age 35. More importantly though the Yankees starting rotation gained some consistency as Clemens, Wang, and Pettitte held the fort down at times.

One of the nicer aspects of the second half came from rookies like Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, and Phil Hughes. Chamberlain got the most attention with the Joba Rules and eating up hitters left and right. He ended up only giving up one earned run. Ian Kennedy who like Chamberlain went from single-A to the majors in one season pitched amazingly well in three starts and Hughes who came back from a hamstring and ankle injury had four quality starts after coming back and had a very respectable September. All three of these guys are just 21 and showed they could be lights out.

There isn't one factor that brought the team together after the All-Star break. Maybe it was Jeter's leadership as captain and consistency (never hitting below .301 in any month) or Rodriguez's amazing season. It could have been the tremendous 2nd halves by Abreu and Cano or the fresh young talent that came up. Perhaps it was Clemens' return to pinstripes or Joe Torre's calm presense. Or even Brian Cashman sticking to his guns and not trading away the farm. However you add it up, the Yankees turn around was truly spectacular and with some luck they made it into the playoffs as the Wild Card team.

Another Disappointment, Followed by Even More

Despite the turn around in the second half, once the Yankees reached the playoffs they became a different team. Remember the Dynasty teams of 1996 to 2001--those days are officially long gone. The last three postseasons something has not felt right when the Yankees have reached the playoffs. Honestly I just don't feel comfortable watching the Yankees in the playoffs, I get nervous, and the team just is not at all what they were during the regular season.

And I'm right, the last three postseasons both the Yankee offense and pitching has been aweful, take a look:

Batting (BA/OBP/SLG, Runs, Ks)
2005 .253/.347/.392, 20 R/32 K
2006 .246/.289/.338, 14 R/24 K
2007 .228/.300/.404, 16 R/14 K

Pitching (ERA/IP/K/BB)
2005 4.40/43/26/5
2006 5.56/34/22/7
2007 5.89/36.7/30/20

A basic analysis shows that the Yankees aren't getting on base or hitting much while the pitching has given up more earned runs and the walks skyrocketed in 2007.

It's a twist of irony though. During the dynasy era the Yankees had no real big super stars, played sound baseball and won four World Series in a span of five years. After 2001 the Yankees began outspending everyone signing players like Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, and Gary Sheffield, and even trading for Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson, Jeff Weaver, and Javier Vazquez. When it came to the playoffs these players have failed to show up. And every Yankee fan knows that its players get respect and earn their true pinstripes when they help their team win in the playoffs. The Yankee teams of the 2002 onward look better on paper than on the field.

Alas with three postseason losses in a row Joe Torre was let go. At least that's how I and other fans feel even if he was offered an incentivized contract. For a team that looked as though they were not going to make the playoffs it was amazing that Joe Torre even got over 90 wins. But the opportunity to stay was gone, as was the patience of Steinbrenner, and a World Series title.

Maybe it was time for a change in leadership on several levels. In my next entry I'll talk about some of the pressing questions for the Yankees in 2008 and give some thoughts on how the new leadership may change the Yankees for year to come.

Baseball!!

Pitchers and catchers arrived today--at least most of them which begins the start of spring training and the 2008 baseball season. By the end of the month I hope to review 2007's down, up, down season for the Yankees and sometime in March lay out what may happen in 2008 for the team. I'll also probably offer some general predictions for the 2008 season across all of baseball.

It is What it is--And it's Not Over

ESPN ran a poll after all the testimony and one of the questions asked, "who do you believe more, Roger Clemens or Brian McNamee." To be honest with you I don't believe either of them after today. Although I was working, I listened to the majority of the days events and when I missed things I referred to Jason Stark's live blog on ESPN. So what's in this post is for the most part, my own reaction to what happened today.

Let's start with McNamee. The big hit against him today was that he admitted to not telling the truth in the past. He lied to New York papers and to federal investigators. He stated that the number of times he reported to the Mitchell investigators of injecting Clemens was less than what actually happened. But on the flip side, McNamee's testimony to the Mitchell investigators on Pettitte and Knoblach matched what they had most recently given within the last week.

From Clemens' side Pettitte's affidavit of being told by Clemens that he used HGH and later in 2003 denying it was not good for him--especially since everyone beleives Pettitte the most. There was also contradictory testimony from Clemens in what he had just given in private just a few days earlier especially around conversations Clemens had with McNamee and HGH. Clemens' admitted he had a heated exchange with McNamee after he had injected Debbie Clemens with HGH in 2003 about the subject of HGH.

The day ended up being like a bizzare version of the movie National Treasure. Another clue lead to another clue which lead to another clue and there seemed to be no end in getting to the truth. With more accounts and evidence there are more questions and this is certainly not over. Do either Clemens or McNamee get a perjury charge? I think that's in the air, but if either Clemens or McNamee try to clear their names investigators and the media will continue to try uncover what actually happened. In other words, this is just getting started.

Some other points to note from what I heard:

• Clemens had a hard time speaking. I don't know what he looked like in person since I only listened, but he stumbled, made up words, and had a hard time at certain points in giving a clear fluid answer. At times he didn't answer the exact question asked or had trouble hearing the question at all. Very strange for a guy who wanted to speak the truth.

• There was this Canseco BBQ/Party in question involving a nanny of the Clemens' kids in 1998. McNamee testified that Clemens was there and talked to Canseco about steroids. Several major leaguers stated not seeing Clemens there. Canseco had an affedavit stating he and Clemens never talked about PEDs. Clemens denies being at the party, but leaves it open that maybe he stopped by to drop off his family. The party itself seemed to have little relevance, but the nanny did.

• Then there's this nanny who apparently was called on by the Congressional committee to give her account of Canseco's party. They called on Clemens' and his team to provide her contact info on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. It was Sunday when they heard from her and she says Clemens was at Canseco's BBQ, but did not know about any steroid talk there. Worst of all, Clemens invited her over to talk on Sunday before providing her contact info. Although Clemens' lawyers accused the panel of it causing an innuendo against Clemens, it still was fishy.

• What does Clemens know about HGH and when did he know anything about it? There was the tale of Debbie Clemens getting HGH injections from McNamee in 2003 unbeknownst of Clemens until after the fact. He found out when his wife started having circulation problems. After this, he had a heated conversation with McNamee. This would count as Roger having a heated dialog about HGH with McNamee when he claims to never have had. Clemens pretty much admitted the heated exchange, but said he didn't know about HGH before 2003 and then added he has learned about HGH of late with these allegations. I couldn't follow his line of thought on this one.

• Mike Stanton, a former Yankee, claims to have seen Roger's butt bleeding. Stanton, admitting he took HGH to the Mitchell investigation, supposedly talked to Clemens about HGH use. Yet another teammate with a very different account.

• What color is HGH or B-12 or whatever was injected into Roger? This was a fairly silly exchange, but somewhat interesting for me since I have no idea what this stuff looks like.

• A panel member asked why Clemens continued to employ McNamee. Although Clemens claims to have treated McNamee like "family" he had "mistrust" for him, especially after injecting his wife without his knowledge. But while there was a "work stoppage" he brought him back. Clemens said he forgives people easily--so I guess the defamation lawsuit and Congressional hearing is part of that process?

• I have to wonder if McNamee has other client's syringes and bloddy gauze. Given his history as a cop, history of lying, and involvement with illegal substances in baseball, he just may, because the man seems to not trust himself or anyone around him.

On a final note, my impression is that more players may talk, Pettitte may be called on again to testify, and this is not going to go away. Bonds gave his testimony in 2003 on the BALCO case and is just now being charge with perjury--can we expect the same ahead?

Taking it to the Hill

In about 10 minutes Roger Clemens will be sworn in along with Brian MacNamee regarding his alleged steroid use. Since my last post, more evidence has been brought to light with Andy Pettitte claiming Clemens talked about HGH to him back in 1999 or 2000, and now Clemens says Andy misunderstood because it was his wife who took HGH. From what I read however, Pettitte's testimony was all over the place at some points and he contradicted himself. It will be a monumental day not only for Clemens, but for baseball as well. Here's what I'm looking to find out from the day on the Hill today:

1. Does Clemens say he unknowingly took steroids? Is it possible MacNamee said it was B-12 when it wasn't? I could see Clemens attacking MacNamee saying he lied to Roger about what he was giving him.

2. How strong a case is the Mitchell Report now? MacNamee and Radomski, two key sources for the report were the suppliers. If Clemens continues to deny use then was Mitchell working with bad leads?

3. What else did Andy Pettitte say? There has got to be more about his use and possibly Clemens'. This is one of the few times a player pointed out another player for their use of steroids.

4. The big question is--who is lying? Because whoever is will likely perjure themselves likely leading to jail time. Will both be on a tight leash in what they say? I think we're learning from Barry Bonds that no one player is immune from the law.

5. The bigger question is, how does baseball respond?

A Couple Things of Note

Super Bowl is Reminder of 2001 World Series

I'm not going to rub it in, but the Giants (of whom I'm certainly a bandwagon fan) beat the Patriots in quite a shocking Super Bowl win. While this blog is not about football, much was hyped all season about the Patriots having a perfect season and going 19-0. Of course since that's not the case, it serves as a reminder of that cliche that no one, no team, and nothing in sports, business, or the real world is perfect.

As the Giants were celebrating, I thought back to 2001 when the Yankees were in their fourth World Series in a row. In game seven, Mariano Rivera was on the mound in the ninth inning with the lead and we all know how it ended (the Yankees lost). Going into the game however, Rivera--certainly the best postseason closer--had not blown a save since 1997. In fact he'd gone 53.2 IP without blowing a save (and only giving up 4 ER in that time). Before game seven some analysts said Rivera was going to blow a save at some point in the playoffs, it was just statistically impossible for him to continue to be perfect in save attempts for as long as he'd been going--especially in the playoffs against the top teams and lineups in the majors.

And so that statistical reality came true at the wrong time albeit and exciting finish for a World Series. In any event, it seems the same happened to the Patriots. There are other arguements to be made, but being perfect just is not a reality very often.

One Syringe, One Gauze and One Beer

I'll be honest here, the Roger Clemens, MacNamee case is becoming a media circus. Wednesday's hearing will be somewhat of a tell all, I don't even know what to expect. But the fact that MacNamee kept syringes, gauzes with blood and a beer can that he claims Clemens used and only handed it over last month is a bit strange in terms of timing. And now Clemens' wife used HGH? It's becoming a bizarre series of events as both sides will try to discredit each other. Whatever happens, by the end I may not even be paying attention because it's that sickening.

On Deck

Aside from the steroid talks going on, Roger Clemens, and a few trades here and there in baseball, it's been quiet leading up to the 2008 season. And with a month to go until pitchers and catchers report for spring training there are a few things I need to report on. So here's what's on deck:

- A review of the Yankees 2007 season
- A preview of the Yankees 2008 season
- Possibly some Red Sox talk (Doug, where art thou?)

So, check back here the next couple months...things will be heating up soon!