My month has gone from a flurry of posts to a drip, mostly because it's gotten way too hectic at my day job. I should actually have a blog about my day job if only to bitch about how last minute things come together--like preparing for this conference we have in a week and a half. So I'm going to spend the next two weeks in a pressure cooker with some late nights and I'm sure at least one night where I cut loose at a bar.
Anywho, the Yankees have been great since the All-Star break so let's break it down:
Hindsight: July 16 to July 22nd
The offense exploded against Tampa Bay Saturday and Sunday putting up 38 runs in the two games capped by a season high 21-4 victory on Saturday. Everyone has been hitting including the just called up Shelley Duncan who hit three homeruns in his first three games as a Yankee and got three curtain calls for it. Wang continues to dominate in his own fashion and now Clemens is finally getting some run support. On the comeback trail are Jason Giambi and Phil Hughes who could be back with the team as early as next week but they shouldn't rush either guy back in my opinion.
Weekly Stats
W-L: 6-2
RS/RA: 66/26
Offensive Numbers (BA/OBP/SLG): .343/.415/.522
Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 3.45/1.42/7.4/.270/.416
Who's Hot: Alex Rodriguez. 100 RBIs in 100 games is the best pace to date. And he had a productive week.
Who's Not: Brian Bruney. He got hit hard in his relief innings last week
My Yankee of the Week: David "Shelley" Duncan. Yes, this is the son of St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan and brother of clumsy OF Chris Duncan (also on the Cards). Duncan hit three homeruns since coming up (as a 27 year old rookie) and got a curtain call for all three. He even hit two in one game.
Foresight: July 23rd to July 29th
I am not going to say comeback, but the Yankees are slowly creeping up in the Wild Card and AL East standings. Honestly any short losing streak by Cleveland or the Red Sox will make the Yankees fun to watch again as we're heading into the dog days of summer and the last quarter of the season. But I've seen how this Yankee season has gone so if trends continue, this current streak is just another blip on the radar. However, it seems the Yankees are having fun--the young and jubilant Melky and Cano are having fun in the dugout it seems with their teammates and everyone looks more relaxed right now. This next week the Yanks are on the road in Kansas City and back at Baltimore (including the wrap up of the suspended game I went to). As noted during the All-Star break, the Yankees are playing sub .500 teams to start off this 1st half and thus far they are ripping them all another you know what.
A little note to end things here, I'll be computerless for the next few days as I head up to Massachusetts for a wedding and to visit the good ol' UMass campus. So probably no Hindsight and Foresight next week, but seriously once this damn conference is over the posts will keep rolling out. I'd like to get to one on the Red Sox after my trip to the state of Mass if only because I don't know what's going on with Doug's situation right now and something needs to be said about them for blogging purposes.
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Friday, July 20, 2007
755
Barry Bonds. Hank Aaron. Home run record. Number 755 was hit 31 years ago on this day and has been the top record in baseball since.
But pretty soon baseball's most coveted record will be broken in a very dark time in baseball. What will remembered more when Barry Bonds hits number 756 is not how special an accomplishment having hit the most home runs in baseball history is, but how Bonds possibly reached that milestone since 1998. This era in baseball, now known as The Steroid Era, has the face of Barry Bonds and always will--even if there is no direct evidence that Bonds took steroids, something I am sure he will deny until the day he dies, Bonds has been the one most discussed in it as he broke the single season homerun record in 2001 and six years later is about to break the career record.
I do not wish to have this post be an opinion piece on what I think of Barry Bonds. I'll rehash some arguments about his career, the era he's played in, and the homerun record he'll be breaking soon. But I do want to point out in here how much of a conflict Bonds and his homerun chase have been in baseball.
Why is this the Greatest Record in Baseball?
Homeruns are fun to watch. They are dramatic, entertaining, and a thing of beauty. A homerun in baseball is the only hit in the game where the player who got the hit also scores during it. And it certainly helps to have runners on base during a homerun because everyone comes home in a homerun.
It wasn't until Babe Ruth broke the single season homerun record in 1919, when he hit 29 homeruns, that homeruns became more and more common in baseball. Before that time the homerun wasn't what it is today because players hardly hit them. There are many reasons for that which I won't get into, but the point is since that time homeruns began to be hit with greater frequency after 1919. Additionally, certain players like Ruth became known as homerun hitters because they could consistently hit homeruns year after year.
The single most reason why the homerun became popularized and is the greatest record in baseball history is because it is the biggest hit in baseball. And by biggest, I mean it puts runs on the board, it can be hit a far ways, and for fans it is an amazing feat to watch because not a whole lot of people can hit a homerun.
As baseball history was made over the years, the homerun hitters paved the way decade after decade. From Babe Ruth to Mel Ott to Ted Williams to Mickey Mantle to Hank Aaron to today's hitters like Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, and Ken Griffey, Jr--the homerun has remained what it is over the course of the game.
Bonds, Homeruns, and Steroids
In the past few years, evidence has surfaced that baseball players have taken performance enhancing drugs--steroids, human hormone growth, among other things. After the 1998 season when Mark McGwire (70 homeruns) broke Roger Maris' single season homerun record (61 in 1961) he admitted to taking androstenedione, an over-the-counter muscle enhancing product that was not banned by baseball at that time. Since that year, Maris' once long standing record of 61 homeruns has been bested six times (twice by McGwire, three times by Sosa, and once by Bonds). You can't forget about the ongoing BALCO investigation which Barry Bonds and Jason Giambi testified in front of a grand jury on whether they took steroids from the drug manufacturer. And there's also the George Mitchell investigation. There have also been books like Jose Canseco's Juiced and Game of Shadows that have pointed to certain players usage and alleged rampant steroid usage in baseball that may well have influenced homerun hitting during this era. And even more recently players like Jason Giambi, Jose Canseco, and the late Ken Caminiti have all admitted to using some form of performance enhancing drugs. But for whatever evidence there is, the culture of baseball has kept steroids tight lipped because no one likes to out another player or their teammate.
Before 1998, Barry Bonds was already on a Hall of Fame track. By that time he'd won three MVP awards, had hit 374 homeruns (end of 1997), stolen 417 bases, and won seven gold gloves. He was certainly one of the best players in the game at that point and given his age of 33 going into the 1998 season he was likely past the prime of his career. He'd been around major league baseball his whole life as the son of ball player Bobby Bonds and cousin of Reggie Jackson, so I think it's fair to say Bonds' life has been about baseball and he was ingrained in its culture from a young age.
I point out Bonds' age because statistical evidence shows that baseball players on a whole have their best seasons sometime between ages 26 and 28. After that, their skills begin to decline and it is more likely than not, they won't put up their best numbers of their career. So from saying that, it is likely that a homerun hitter will slow down his pace in hitting homeruns, but we know that for Bonds that was not the case.
I'll refer you to the chart below to make my case. Here are the top 10 homerun hitters between 1998-2006 with their combined homeruns for that period and their ages during that time in ().
1. Sammy Sosa (29-36) 447
2. Alex Rodriguez (22-30) 400
3. Manny Ramirez (26-34) 361
4. Barry Bonds (33-41) 360
5. Carlos Delgado (26-34) 340
6. Jim Thome (27-35) 339
7. Vladimir Guerrero (22-30) 326
8. Andruw Jones (21-28) 319
9. Jason Giambi (27-35) 304
10. Rafael Palmeiro (33-40) 298
The chart is pretty simple but points out this. Ball players who are in this top 10 list for this period, really started hitting homeruns in their 20s. The exceptions are Rafael Palmeiro, who embarassed his way out of baseball in 2005 after testing positive for being on the juice and Barry Bonds, who is 4th on the list but could be higher if he hadn't missed most of 2005. There's also Sammy Sosa at #1 who was 29 in 1998 just on the cusp of decline, but had the best years of his career after then. I'd love to look historically to see how many homeruns all players over 30 have hit in their career, but I didn't have the time to do that.
But my point is this, Bonds hit more homeruns the second half of his career (1998 to today, 389 and counting) than when he was young and conceivably in his prime before all of this. He's also been able to completely change the way pitchers pitch to him--he was intentionally walked 120 times in 2004 (the record before Bonds had been 45 by Willie McCovy in 1970)--this was almost double than from the year before (61). From 2001 to 2004 he won four MVPs in a row--never been done before, won the batting title twice which he had never done previously, and went to his first World Series (which Barry always said he was all about, but hasn't mentioned a thing about winning a ring since 2002). He also shattered single season records in on-base percentage (.609 in 2004, Ted Williams held record at .553), slugging percentage (.863 in 2004, Babe Ruth held record at .849 in 1920), OPS (1.421 in 2004, Babe Ruth held record at 1.382 in 1920), and at-bats per homerun (6.52 in 2001 or every 6 or so at bats he hit a homerun, McGwire held the record at 7.58).
All I will say is that this raises some eyebrows from a statistical standpoint.
Will Bud Selig Attend?
With all the controversy swelling around Hank Aaron's homerun record of 755, Bonds will break it and break it soon--and one leader in baseball has to make a choice. If you haven't kept up with this story, Bud Selig the commissioner of baseball, has seen the steroid controversy occur on his watch and become public. Although Selig wouldn't admit it, the Mitchell investigation is pretty much targeted at Bonds. And so the way things are going, it's evident that Selig is not happy and does not support Bonds' pursuit of the all time homerun record.
Already, Hank Aaron, a close friend of Selig's, has said he would not be present to see Bonds break his homerun record. But there's been some question if Bud Selig himself would. Despite Selig's feelings and considerable embarassment over the entire Steroid Era, it looks like he will attend.
While theoretically this would be a time of celebration in baseball it is not. With the exception of San Francisco Giants fans, Barry Bonds is likely the most hated sports figure today. He's also never been one of the nicest sports figures carrying an ego, arrogance, and anti-team attitude most of his career. So for THE record in baseball to be broken given the circumstances and the man who will do it, baseball finds itself in a very precarious position.
Bonds' Legacy
While no one knows how much longer Barry Bonds will play, his legacy has certainly been set by the last half of his career. We may never truly know if Barry Bonds took steroids or if he did how it helped him hit homeruns, but we know he will forever be caught up in the Steroid Era of baseball as its ugly face. It has been in part because of Barry Bonds that when a player suddenly hits 35 homeruns when he never had before, fans grow suspicious of steroid use. But it has taken a player like Barry Bonds for baseball to recognize that its own culture had a problem and it needed to be fixed if anything for the integrity of the game and its greatest record.
But pretty soon baseball's most coveted record will be broken in a very dark time in baseball. What will remembered more when Barry Bonds hits number 756 is not how special an accomplishment having hit the most home runs in baseball history is, but how Bonds possibly reached that milestone since 1998. This era in baseball, now known as The Steroid Era, has the face of Barry Bonds and always will--even if there is no direct evidence that Bonds took steroids, something I am sure he will deny until the day he dies, Bonds has been the one most discussed in it as he broke the single season homerun record in 2001 and six years later is about to break the career record.
I do not wish to have this post be an opinion piece on what I think of Barry Bonds. I'll rehash some arguments about his career, the era he's played in, and the homerun record he'll be breaking soon. But I do want to point out in here how much of a conflict Bonds and his homerun chase have been in baseball.
Why is this the Greatest Record in Baseball?
Homeruns are fun to watch. They are dramatic, entertaining, and a thing of beauty. A homerun in baseball is the only hit in the game where the player who got the hit also scores during it. And it certainly helps to have runners on base during a homerun because everyone comes home in a homerun.
It wasn't until Babe Ruth broke the single season homerun record in 1919, when he hit 29 homeruns, that homeruns became more and more common in baseball. Before that time the homerun wasn't what it is today because players hardly hit them. There are many reasons for that which I won't get into, but the point is since that time homeruns began to be hit with greater frequency after 1919. Additionally, certain players like Ruth became known as homerun hitters because they could consistently hit homeruns year after year.
The single most reason why the homerun became popularized and is the greatest record in baseball history is because it is the biggest hit in baseball. And by biggest, I mean it puts runs on the board, it can be hit a far ways, and for fans it is an amazing feat to watch because not a whole lot of people can hit a homerun.
As baseball history was made over the years, the homerun hitters paved the way decade after decade. From Babe Ruth to Mel Ott to Ted Williams to Mickey Mantle to Hank Aaron to today's hitters like Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, and Ken Griffey, Jr--the homerun has remained what it is over the course of the game.
Bonds, Homeruns, and Steroids
In the past few years, evidence has surfaced that baseball players have taken performance enhancing drugs--steroids, human hormone growth, among other things. After the 1998 season when Mark McGwire (70 homeruns) broke Roger Maris' single season homerun record (61 in 1961) he admitted to taking androstenedione, an over-the-counter muscle enhancing product that was not banned by baseball at that time. Since that year, Maris' once long standing record of 61 homeruns has been bested six times (twice by McGwire, three times by Sosa, and once by Bonds). You can't forget about the ongoing BALCO investigation which Barry Bonds and Jason Giambi testified in front of a grand jury on whether they took steroids from the drug manufacturer. And there's also the George Mitchell investigation. There have also been books like Jose Canseco's Juiced and Game of Shadows that have pointed to certain players usage and alleged rampant steroid usage in baseball that may well have influenced homerun hitting during this era. And even more recently players like Jason Giambi, Jose Canseco, and the late Ken Caminiti have all admitted to using some form of performance enhancing drugs. But for whatever evidence there is, the culture of baseball has kept steroids tight lipped because no one likes to out another player or their teammate.
Before 1998, Barry Bonds was already on a Hall of Fame track. By that time he'd won three MVP awards, had hit 374 homeruns (end of 1997), stolen 417 bases, and won seven gold gloves. He was certainly one of the best players in the game at that point and given his age of 33 going into the 1998 season he was likely past the prime of his career. He'd been around major league baseball his whole life as the son of ball player Bobby Bonds and cousin of Reggie Jackson, so I think it's fair to say Bonds' life has been about baseball and he was ingrained in its culture from a young age.
I point out Bonds' age because statistical evidence shows that baseball players on a whole have their best seasons sometime between ages 26 and 28. After that, their skills begin to decline and it is more likely than not, they won't put up their best numbers of their career. So from saying that, it is likely that a homerun hitter will slow down his pace in hitting homeruns, but we know that for Bonds that was not the case.
I'll refer you to the chart below to make my case. Here are the top 10 homerun hitters between 1998-2006 with their combined homeruns for that period and their ages during that time in ().
1. Sammy Sosa (29-36) 447
2. Alex Rodriguez (22-30) 400
3. Manny Ramirez (26-34) 361
4. Barry Bonds (33-41) 360
5. Carlos Delgado (26-34) 340
6. Jim Thome (27-35) 339
7. Vladimir Guerrero (22-30) 326
8. Andruw Jones (21-28) 319
9. Jason Giambi (27-35) 304
10. Rafael Palmeiro (33-40) 298
The chart is pretty simple but points out this. Ball players who are in this top 10 list for this period, really started hitting homeruns in their 20s. The exceptions are Rafael Palmeiro, who embarassed his way out of baseball in 2005 after testing positive for being on the juice and Barry Bonds, who is 4th on the list but could be higher if he hadn't missed most of 2005. There's also Sammy Sosa at #1 who was 29 in 1998 just on the cusp of decline, but had the best years of his career after then. I'd love to look historically to see how many homeruns all players over 30 have hit in their career, but I didn't have the time to do that.
But my point is this, Bonds hit more homeruns the second half of his career (1998 to today, 389 and counting) than when he was young and conceivably in his prime before all of this. He's also been able to completely change the way pitchers pitch to him--he was intentionally walked 120 times in 2004 (the record before Bonds had been 45 by Willie McCovy in 1970)--this was almost double than from the year before (61). From 2001 to 2004 he won four MVPs in a row--never been done before, won the batting title twice which he had never done previously, and went to his first World Series (which Barry always said he was all about, but hasn't mentioned a thing about winning a ring since 2002). He also shattered single season records in on-base percentage (.609 in 2004, Ted Williams held record at .553), slugging percentage (.863 in 2004, Babe Ruth held record at .849 in 1920), OPS (1.421 in 2004, Babe Ruth held record at 1.382 in 1920), and at-bats per homerun (6.52 in 2001 or every 6 or so at bats he hit a homerun, McGwire held the record at 7.58).
All I will say is that this raises some eyebrows from a statistical standpoint.
Will Bud Selig Attend?
With all the controversy swelling around Hank Aaron's homerun record of 755, Bonds will break it and break it soon--and one leader in baseball has to make a choice. If you haven't kept up with this story, Bud Selig the commissioner of baseball, has seen the steroid controversy occur on his watch and become public. Although Selig wouldn't admit it, the Mitchell investigation is pretty much targeted at Bonds. And so the way things are going, it's evident that Selig is not happy and does not support Bonds' pursuit of the all time homerun record.
Already, Hank Aaron, a close friend of Selig's, has said he would not be present to see Bonds break his homerun record. But there's been some question if Bud Selig himself would. Despite Selig's feelings and considerable embarassment over the entire Steroid Era, it looks like he will attend.
While theoretically this would be a time of celebration in baseball it is not. With the exception of San Francisco Giants fans, Barry Bonds is likely the most hated sports figure today. He's also never been one of the nicest sports figures carrying an ego, arrogance, and anti-team attitude most of his career. So for THE record in baseball to be broken given the circumstances and the man who will do it, baseball finds itself in a very precarious position.
Bonds' Legacy
While no one knows how much longer Barry Bonds will play, his legacy has certainly been set by the last half of his career. We may never truly know if Barry Bonds took steroids or if he did how it helped him hit homeruns, but we know he will forever be caught up in the Steroid Era of baseball as its ugly face. It has been in part because of Barry Bonds that when a player suddenly hits 35 homeruns when he never had before, fans grow suspicious of steroid use. But it has taken a player like Barry Bonds for baseball to recognize that its own culture had a problem and it needed to be fixed if anything for the integrity of the game and its greatest record.
Monday, July 16, 2007
Gettin' Back to that Bandwagon Post
I'm finally getting back to the bandwagon fans post I wrote a couple weeks back. My first reaction after writing it was that I hope I didn't piss anyone off. I didn't get any angry responses other than from my girlfriend whom I made read the post. But I'll get to her reply in a bit. My intent in writing the post was to get some feedback on this blog and write something controversial. And I say controversial in the sense that it probably challenged some people's perspectives in being a fan of a sport and having a favorite team in that sport. I didn't intend to put any fan down, but wanted to note there's a difference between what I called a "true" fan and a bandwagon fan.
Before getting to the responses, I wanted to clarify some things I did not say in the post and this is mainly in reaction to my girlfriend who thought my post belittling and that I expected readers to know everything about baseball. Well, let me clarify a few things:
Now that the air is cleaner, let's get to the responses--thanks to everyone to replied. The first one is from PJB (a close friend of Doug and I):
One thing to point out is that however annoying they may be, bandwagon fans are usually very good for the teams they happen to be supporting. There's been some research published at Baseball Prospectus on the chasm in revenue between playoff/non-playoff teams. That huge gulf can be explained partly by TV revenue and playoff ticket sales, but also because of the surge in local attention and popularity that can persist for years after a flag raises. That money of course ends up going towards keeping the team competitive (big market teams) or prompting a move or sale (nationals).
Have faith Teddy, and remember that no bandwagon fan feels the elation of winning after suffering through years of failure. Or in the Yankees case, a single down year like this one.
Yes, very good to point out BP's research and connect it with the post. Certainly bandwagon fans are a good source of revenue for the game--not only do they buy gear, they will go to games as long as their team is good. I think PJB is correct to say that baseball needs bandwagon fans for the good of the business of baseball. Afterall, how would us fans pay for part of those salaries?
And I do remember my elation in 1996--I was at a Halloween party and went running around the place cheering my head off. Probably one of the best moments of my senior year in high school aside from graduating and getting into college.
Another comment comes from Captain Caveman who has a pretty good story:
I have a related story. Back in 1999 I had the opportunity to attend the All-Star game here in Boston. My friend and I had a terrific day as we were able to play catch in the infield at Fenway Park. (He used to work behind the scenes for the Celtics, and is now the head trainer for the Pacers...so he has connections) Anyway, we were offered 2 tickets at $150 each for standing room only. We scraped together the funds and gladly bought them.So here we are at an All-Star game. We are both big fans of baseball and feel somehow honored to be at an All-Star game in our hometown. After a few innings, we became fairly angry. The whole crowd seemed interested in everything BUT the game. They all talked on their cell phones to their friends...'yeah, I'm at the ball game and your not...I don't know who started...I'm not sure who's on the mound right now but he got some people out...' We looked at each other, Thats Pedro fucking Martinez on the mound. How do these people get tickets to this and not even know whats going on? Meanwhile, honest fans who follow the sport daily (people who not only know who Pedro is, but that he is starting) are left to watch from home. Granted, I was able to get tickets, but we paid face value for them and waited for several hours to know if they were even available.We still enjoyed the game, it's just shocking to witness the stupidity. Why spend the money to go to the game when you have no idea what's going on??
Nice story--I hope the fans knew who Ted Williams was when he came out onto the field during that All-Star game. I won't go on record to say that bandwagon fans have priced true fans out of ballparks (Caveman's example is the All-Star game which costs more) or that bandwagon fans are rolling in money, but I can share in his annoyance. Afterall this was the All-Star game in Boston where in 1999 Pedro was the best pitcher in the AL. But in answer to his question at the end of the comment my reply is--I don't know--just to say you were there maybe?
Before getting to the responses, I wanted to clarify some things I did not say in the post and this is mainly in reaction to my girlfriend who thought my post belittling and that I expected readers to know everything about baseball. Well, let me clarify a few things:
1) I never said bandwagon fans were bad for baseball, the Rivalry, or any sport or team.
2) I never put down bandwagon fans because they didn't know everything. My fuss is that they don't know the basic stuff like how the game is played or who's on the team.
3) I never said not to purchase a teams paraphrinalia in whatever color you like--the links are on the post to buy stuff.
4) I never said a bandwagon fan has no feelings of love for the team they "root" for. I only question that love.
5) I never said all New Yorkers are liable to push you on the subway tracks.
Now that the air is cleaner, let's get to the responses--thanks to everyone to replied. The first one is from PJB (a close friend of Doug and I):
One thing to point out is that however annoying they may be, bandwagon fans are usually very good for the teams they happen to be supporting. There's been some research published at Baseball Prospectus on the chasm in revenue between playoff/non-playoff teams. That huge gulf can be explained partly by TV revenue and playoff ticket sales, but also because of the surge in local attention and popularity that can persist for years after a flag raises. That money of course ends up going towards keeping the team competitive (big market teams) or prompting a move or sale (nationals).
Have faith Teddy, and remember that no bandwagon fan feels the elation of winning after suffering through years of failure. Or in the Yankees case, a single down year like this one.
Yes, very good to point out BP's research and connect it with the post. Certainly bandwagon fans are a good source of revenue for the game--not only do they buy gear, they will go to games as long as their team is good. I think PJB is correct to say that baseball needs bandwagon fans for the good of the business of baseball. Afterall, how would us fans pay for part of those salaries?
And I do remember my elation in 1996--I was at a Halloween party and went running around the place cheering my head off. Probably one of the best moments of my senior year in high school aside from graduating and getting into college.
Another comment comes from Captain Caveman who has a pretty good story:
I have a related story. Back in 1999 I had the opportunity to attend the All-Star game here in Boston. My friend and I had a terrific day as we were able to play catch in the infield at Fenway Park. (He used to work behind the scenes for the Celtics, and is now the head trainer for the Pacers...so he has connections) Anyway, we were offered 2 tickets at $150 each for standing room only. We scraped together the funds and gladly bought them.So here we are at an All-Star game. We are both big fans of baseball and feel somehow honored to be at an All-Star game in our hometown. After a few innings, we became fairly angry. The whole crowd seemed interested in everything BUT the game. They all talked on their cell phones to their friends...'yeah, I'm at the ball game and your not...I don't know who started...I'm not sure who's on the mound right now but he got some people out...' We looked at each other, Thats Pedro fucking Martinez on the mound. How do these people get tickets to this and not even know whats going on? Meanwhile, honest fans who follow the sport daily (people who not only know who Pedro is, but that he is starting) are left to watch from home. Granted, I was able to get tickets, but we paid face value for them and waited for several hours to know if they were even available.We still enjoyed the game, it's just shocking to witness the stupidity. Why spend the money to go to the game when you have no idea what's going on??
Nice story--I hope the fans knew who Ted Williams was when he came out onto the field during that All-Star game. I won't go on record to say that bandwagon fans have priced true fans out of ballparks (Caveman's example is the All-Star game which costs more) or that bandwagon fans are rolling in money, but I can share in his annoyance. Afterall this was the All-Star game in Boston where in 1999 Pedro was the best pitcher in the AL. But in answer to his question at the end of the comment my reply is--I don't know--just to say you were there maybe?
Finally, from Jim:
Hey – great post on the bandwagon fans. Another thing you can’t appreciate as a bandwagon fan is the love/hate relationship Yankees fans have with their own team – the NY Post front page had this teaser for the sports section: “Yankees win one in a row.”
Quite true. Also the love/hate relationship with certain players is quite true.
I'll end it here with some final thoughts. I don't hate bandwagon fans. They may be annoying, but there is some good they bring to the game. And while I may have sounded a bit arrogant and bitchy in my post, I personally want to transform bandwagon fans into true fans of the game of baseball (and to the Yankees of course. Though my posts may create some Red Sox fans). I understand not all fans follow every little detail or watch every single game--even I don't know everything. So I hope this blog can shed some light on how to have a lifelong relationship with the game of baseball and a team, and appreciate all of it for what it is.
Thursday, July 12, 2007
Hindsight and Foresight: Yankee Midseason Review
I'm not bothering reviewing the last week before the All-Star Break because it's more important to talk about the Yankees first half. As my weekly Hindsight and Foresights go, it's been a rough season for the most part as a Yankee fan. Mostly because they have the talent, they have the highest payroll in baseball, and have simply had a lot of bad luck. And there have been a lot of other things happen as well with Giambi's steroid talk to A-Rod's night out in Toronto, and waiting for Clemens which have been, in my view, distractions for the team (add to that list the Yankees announcement to negotiate with A-Rod and fueling the Scott Boras fire).
Of course there's no way of knowing with more good luck and less distractions exactly how much better off in the standings the team would be than they are now. Simply put, the Yankees aren't playing like the Yankees of the last 12 years and that's why they sit at 42-43, 10 games behind their Rivals the Boston Red Sox. And Boston has certainly proved their a great team this year, despite what Doug may say on here.
Rather than trying to win the AL East this year, the Yankees need to set their sights on climbing up in the Wild Card standings if they want to push for the playoffs. Currently they're 8.5 games in back of Cleveland. But then you look at teams like Cleveland, Detroit, Anaheim or even Toronto and Seattle and you have to wonder even if the Yankees even have a chance to make it. And what success will they have if they even make the playoffs?
I'm not downplaying the possibility that the Yankees could come back and make the World Series this year. It's possible, but quite unlikely. I figured a season like this would happen one year or another where the Yankees are a team of superstars, many past their prime or entering the downturn in their careers, and suddenly a lot of them have off years, get injured, etc and it all shows in their record. There will be a lesson in this and that is now is the time for the Yankees seriously acknowledge they need to rebuild from the farm system up. Think about it. In five years or so Posada, Rivera, Clemens, Damon, Abreu and others will either be retired or not as effective. And there still isn't a whole lot in the pipeline.
Well, enough babbling for now, here's how the team's stats look for the first half:
W-L: 42-43
RS/RA: 456/386
Offensive numbers (BA/HR/OBP/SLG/): .282/89/.356/.438
Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 4.36/1.39/5.46/.262/.406
First half MVP: Alex Rodriguez .317/30/86/.413/.665
First half bum: Kei Igawa 2-2/7.14/46.7 IP/33 K/23 BB
I'm going to break down the discussion of the first half into four parts: 1) The Injury Plague, 2) The Underperformers, 3) The A-Rod factor, and 4) More Bullpen Abuse followed by comments for the second half and beyond.
On the pitching side, it took Mussina two months to work out the kinks--it was starting to look like 2005 for him for a while. And other than Hughes, the Yankees rookies (DeSalvo, Clippard, Rasner, Wright, and Karstens) have been pretty bad. The worst rookie, who technically isn't a rookie, is Kei Igawa--noted above as the first half bum. There's nothing else to say other than Igawa has been terrible at best. The only credit I can give him is when he came into a game at Fenway and pitched 6 shutout innings of relief in a game the Yankees needed to win (they won 3-1). And the bullpen--Vizcaino is all over the place, Farnsworth is himself, and Proctor has lost a few pretty badly. But more on that group in a sec.
The A-Rod Factor
Now that the cats out of the bag that the Yankees are going to renegotiate something with A-Rod's contract, I'm planning a post more about him perhaps next week. But A-Rod has carried the Yankees offense even when it was non-existent. He had an unbelieveable April, a lackluster May, but refocused and was great again in June. And even when he yelled "mine" and got caught chilling with a hooker, he didn't let it get to him. I guess only Yankees fans can get to A-Rod. If he keeps up his pace, he would be in the running for his 3rd MVP season (up against Magglio Ordonez) and it could potentially be his best seasons ever. Here's how his first half compares with this first half from his other two MVP season (2003 and 2005):
2003 .285/.373/.544 22 HR 60 RBI
2005 .317/.426/.582 23 HR 72 RBI
2007 .317/.413/.665 30 HR 86 RBI
More Bullpen Abuse
I don't analyze bullpens here much, but I've noted how abused the Yankees bullpen is (overall they've pitched about 37% of all IP). This is because Joe Torre does not have much concern for overworking some relievers. I understand this year is a bit different because early on rookie pitchers were leaving the game very early almost everyday. But what erks me is how often he turned to Vizcaino and Farnsworth who have allowed teams to come back and win ones that shouldn't have been lost. In all, six Yankees have pitched relief in at least 30 games each. And let's not forget, Mariano has just 11 saves.
Foresight
When the season ends for the Yankees this year, expect the leadership to change. I truly believe this is Torre's last season. I have said whether he wins a World Series or not, he's gone. It's not all Torre's fault that the Yankees haven't won a World Series since 2000, but in the end it falls on him. If last year wasn't an indicator that Torre was on the hook, I can't imagine was the Boss is saying privately. The team is going to change and rebuild and someone new will be needed at the helm. It will be between Mattingly and Girardi.
As for Cashman, he's publically on the hook. I doubt he'll get the can, but he'll likely lose decision making powers if the Yankees don't make the playoffs or don't win the World Series.
Which brings us to the Boss. I posted on him last week, but he wants one more ring (probably more) and does anything to do that. It will be an interesting offseason no matter how this ends.
Of course there's no way of knowing with more good luck and less distractions exactly how much better off in the standings the team would be than they are now. Simply put, the Yankees aren't playing like the Yankees of the last 12 years and that's why they sit at 42-43, 10 games behind their Rivals the Boston Red Sox. And Boston has certainly proved their a great team this year, despite what Doug may say on here.
Rather than trying to win the AL East this year, the Yankees need to set their sights on climbing up in the Wild Card standings if they want to push for the playoffs. Currently they're 8.5 games in back of Cleveland. But then you look at teams like Cleveland, Detroit, Anaheim or even Toronto and Seattle and you have to wonder even if the Yankees even have a chance to make it. And what success will they have if they even make the playoffs?
I'm not downplaying the possibility that the Yankees could come back and make the World Series this year. It's possible, but quite unlikely. I figured a season like this would happen one year or another where the Yankees are a team of superstars, many past their prime or entering the downturn in their careers, and suddenly a lot of them have off years, get injured, etc and it all shows in their record. There will be a lesson in this and that is now is the time for the Yankees seriously acknowledge they need to rebuild from the farm system up. Think about it. In five years or so Posada, Rivera, Clemens, Damon, Abreu and others will either be retired or not as effective. And there still isn't a whole lot in the pipeline.
Well, enough babbling for now, here's how the team's stats look for the first half:
W-L: 42-43
RS/RA: 456/386
Offensive numbers (BA/HR/OBP/SLG/): .282/89/.356/.438
Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 4.36/1.39/5.46/.262/.406
First half MVP: Alex Rodriguez .317/30/86/.413/.665
First half bum: Kei Igawa 2-2/7.14/46.7 IP/33 K/23 BB
I'm going to break down the discussion of the first half into four parts: 1) The Injury Plague, 2) The Underperformers, 3) The A-Rod factor, and 4) More Bullpen Abuse followed by comments for the second half and beyond.
The Injury Plague
There have been plenty of injuries for the Yankees this year. Some big (Pavano getting Tommy John) and some small (Clemens' fatigued groin delaying his first start). But it all adds up to piecemeal patchwork to fill holes. Many of those holes were in the starting rotation--the Yankees broke the record for most starters in a season with 12. This started early on as Wang was set back a month, Mussina landed on the DL for two weeks, Hughes went down twice, Karstens broke his leg, and Pavano--well we've discussed that at length. It also affected the offense too. Though continuing his streak of not being on the DL Damon's been hobbled since game one of the season with leg problems, Matsui went down with a hamstring injury, Giambi's season is all but over, Mientkiewicz (whose name I still can't spell without looking it up) got run over, and A-Rod got a bit of a scare last week. All in all, injuries have made the rotation and lineup inconsistent.
The Underperformers
There have also been players who have struggled. Damon is certainly one who has struggled because he can't play everyday and his hobbled by some dents. This looks to be an off year for Damon who still continues to leadoff despite a .344 SLG. There was also Giambi, who was hot between April 14th and May 6th, but forgot how to hit a ball after that before landing on the DL. It's taken Matsui a bit longer than usual to find his swing, but he picked it up in June. Two disappointments thus far have been Abreu and Cano. Cano however, didn't really bust out until the second half last year as did Abreu, so it could be a matter of time. But to say the least Abreu has been disappointing at the plate and even in the field at times as he seems to have lost a few steps. Also as noted here the Yankees first base spot has been a merry-go-round (Mientkiewicz, Phelps, Cairo, Posada, and Damon have all played there at some point)--and it's been a sore spot for the team.On the pitching side, it took Mussina two months to work out the kinks--it was starting to look like 2005 for him for a while. And other than Hughes, the Yankees rookies (DeSalvo, Clippard, Rasner, Wright, and Karstens) have been pretty bad. The worst rookie, who technically isn't a rookie, is Kei Igawa--noted above as the first half bum. There's nothing else to say other than Igawa has been terrible at best. The only credit I can give him is when he came into a game at Fenway and pitched 6 shutout innings of relief in a game the Yankees needed to win (they won 3-1). And the bullpen--Vizcaino is all over the place, Farnsworth is himself, and Proctor has lost a few pretty badly. But more on that group in a sec.
The A-Rod Factor
Now that the cats out of the bag that the Yankees are going to renegotiate something with A-Rod's contract, I'm planning a post more about him perhaps next week. But A-Rod has carried the Yankees offense even when it was non-existent. He had an unbelieveable April, a lackluster May, but refocused and was great again in June. And even when he yelled "mine" and got caught chilling with a hooker, he didn't let it get to him. I guess only Yankees fans can get to A-Rod. If he keeps up his pace, he would be in the running for his 3rd MVP season (up against Magglio Ordonez) and it could potentially be his best seasons ever. Here's how his first half compares with this first half from his other two MVP season (2003 and 2005):
2003 .285/.373/.544 22 HR 60 RBI
2005 .317/.426/.582 23 HR 72 RBI
2007 .317/.413/.665 30 HR 86 RBI
More Bullpen Abuse
I don't analyze bullpens here much, but I've noted how abused the Yankees bullpen is (overall they've pitched about 37% of all IP). This is because Joe Torre does not have much concern for overworking some relievers. I understand this year is a bit different because early on rookie pitchers were leaving the game very early almost everyday. But what erks me is how often he turned to Vizcaino and Farnsworth who have allowed teams to come back and win ones that shouldn't have been lost. In all, six Yankees have pitched relief in at least 30 games each. And let's not forget, Mariano has just 11 saves.
Foresight
The Schedule Ahead
As Buster Onley points out in his blog, the Yankees open the second half with 28 games against teams currently with a winning percentage below .500 (up until August 16th). That doesn't mean much since the Yankees were 16-16 against teams with that winning percentage this first half.
But looking at it, the Yankees schedule could favor them if, as I keep saying over and over again, they beat the teams they can and need to beat. Here's how the rest of their schedule breaks down:
Tampa Bay (13 games), Boston (6 games), Toronto (14 games), Baltimore (12 games), Kansas City (10 games), Detroit (8 games), Cleveland (3 games), Chicago (3 games), Los Angeles (3 games), Seattle (3 games)
Time to Step it Up
If you use the Pythagorean formula to get W-L, the Yankees should be 49-36. This certainly means the Yankees have been unlucky. To note, the Yankees also are doing poorly in one run games, going 6-14. And they just don't give Clemens run support after spending all that money. And there are many other things. Jorge Posada used to say it best during the dynasty years, "we grind it!" They really need to.
Here's some quick-and-dirty math I did. Since the Wild Card was introduced in 1994, the average number of wins the WC team had (1995-2006) is about 94. With the Yankees at 42-43, they will have to go 52-25 the rest of the way to get 94 wins. And that's contending against Detroit, Cleveland, Minnesota, Anaheim, and perhaps Seattle.
Rebuilding
The Yankees are a team who are rebuilding. It may not look like it at first, but the Sheffield and Johnson trades were just the beginning. At the end of the season Posada, Rivera, Clemens, Pettitte, and probably A-Rod will be free agents. A-Rod aside, Posada and Rivera will be back and finish their careers in NY. Other than those guys, next year (2008) will be Giambi's last contract year, Abreu's final season as well in his contract, and I believe Matsui is signed through 2009 like Damon. At some point Wang and Cano need to be locked up into long-term deals. But beside whether to sign these players, the Yankees of the future should not be all from the free agent market, but from within. We're already seeing a few of them--Cano, Wang, Hughes, Melky--and there will be more to come as long as the Yankees retain their prospect talent.
New LeadershipWhen the season ends for the Yankees this year, expect the leadership to change. I truly believe this is Torre's last season. I have said whether he wins a World Series or not, he's gone. It's not all Torre's fault that the Yankees haven't won a World Series since 2000, but in the end it falls on him. If last year wasn't an indicator that Torre was on the hook, I can't imagine was the Boss is saying privately. The team is going to change and rebuild and someone new will be needed at the helm. It will be between Mattingly and Girardi.
As for Cashman, he's publically on the hook. I doubt he'll get the can, but he'll likely lose decision making powers if the Yankees don't make the playoffs or don't win the World Series.
Which brings us to the Boss. I posted on him last week, but he wants one more ring (probably more) and does anything to do that. It will be an interesting offseason no matter how this ends.
Sunday, July 8, 2007
Half-Full or Half-Empty: Midseason Review Part II
Today's midseason review (part deux) is on teams. It's still hard to say who will make the playoffs and so forth, but we'll have some fun with it here.
Questions like who has a shot at the playoffs, who's great first half is likely to fade out, and what team(s) are in for a 2nd half surge--are sure to stire up some debate on here. There's also a bit of analysis in here on the first half because it may say something about how teams will do in the second half.
Not all the teams are going to get a little write up here--so apologies to Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Texas, Washington, Pittsburgh, Houston, Cinncinati, and San Francisco. You can count these guys out for the playoffs though Kansas City and Pittsburgh seem to be doing better than last year (there is hope one day).
All this talk leaves teams who could come back and recover from a rough first half.
AL East Yankees
AL Central Cleveland
AL West Anaheim
WC Boston
NL East Mets
NL Central Cubs
NL West Dodgers
WC Phillies
with Cleveland and the Dodgers in the World Series. I'm going to stick to those guns, but I'll say Boston wins the AL East and Detroit the WC. Otherwise the rest stays put.
One more Midseason Review to come looking at some players--plus a special Hindsight and Foresight reviewing the Yankees 1st half with a trip down memory lane as I'm going to re-read all the other Hindsight and Foresights.
Questions like who has a shot at the playoffs, who's great first half is likely to fade out, and what team(s) are in for a 2nd half surge--are sure to stire up some debate on here. There's also a bit of analysis in here on the first half because it may say something about how teams will do in the second half.
Not all the teams are going to get a little write up here--so apologies to Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Texas, Washington, Pittsburgh, Houston, Cinncinati, and San Francisco. You can count these guys out for the playoffs though Kansas City and Pittsburgh seem to be doing better than last year (there is hope one day).
Will Hold Their Own
AL Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, AnaheimIt's been a while since the Red Sox were looking pretty good half way through ahead of the Yankees. Actually, 1995 was when. In that year the Red Sox were up 7 games over the Yankees who were ironically one game under .500 (and then went on to get the first ever AL Wild Card). This year the Red Sox are up 10 games and have the best winning percentage in baseball. The Red Sox have one of the best starting pitching staffs in the majors and their offense is up there as well (Manny will come around). They're a sure thing to win the AL East barring any significant injuries.
Cleveland and Detroit are in a race in the AL Central. By the looks of it the Wild Card will come out of here again like last year. Cleveland is a team who rebuilt for years following much success in the 1990s and it has been worth the wait. C.C. Sabathia is putting up a Cy Young year and the likes of Sizemore, Martinez, and Hafner (who will pick it up the 2nd half) carry the offense. Detroit on the other hand has gone 14-6 their last 20 games coming into the All-Star break. What is most suprising is that Detroit's offense leads the AL in runs scored with 512 (Cleveland is next with 471). Maggio, Sheffield, and Guillen are having very nice seasons so far. Both Verlander and Bonderman are (who could both be another Cy Young contenders) a combined 19-4 215 IP 3.31 ERA 195 K/65 BB.
Anaheim should feel too much pressure from the Mariners (more on them later). Vlad has lead the offense and young players like Willits and Kotchman are making a mark on the offense. The pitching has held up despite Colon still recovering (and certianly not the same pitcher as two year ago Cy winner) and Santana only pitching well at home.
I'd consider these four teams ones to keep up their winning in the second half.
NL Mets, Milwaukee, Padres, Dodgers
The Mets pitching struggles continue as do Delgado and Beltran who are the two top offensive producers not doing their job. They've dealt with injuries (Alou, Perez, Pedro) but are still on top. Certainly everyone knew the Mets had their weaknesses but would still be in the race. It just looks like the Braves and Phillies have more holes than the Mets, which is lucky for them.
Milwaukee, who we've discussed before, is a great young team. They remind me of the 2005 Cleveland team, but the talent isn't as raw. The Milwaukee infield of Braun, Weeks, Fielder, and Hardy provide a great core of young talent of whom all but Weeks has really shown. On the pitching side, Sheets is having a nice comeback season though Suppan, their veteran free agent signing, hasn't been all that great (5.00 ERA). Claudio Vargas has been a bit of a suprise too.
In the NL West, the Doders and Padres are battling it out with a young Arizona team. If you remember two years ago, the Padres won the west with the lowest winning percentage (82-80). This year, like last is different, as the NL West has become more competitive. Pitching has really done it for the Padres (giving up just 298 runs, 64 fewer than the next team)--Peavy is having a career year, Young has been solid, and even Maddux and Wells have been very decent. Of course they have Petco on their side. The Dodgers on the other hand have a better offense, but not a very strong one. Garciaparra's power is sapped, Juan Pierre has a .311 OBP as leadoff hitter, and Furcal still hasn't come into his '06 form. Unfortuately the Dodgers have dealt with pitching injuries notably Jason's Schmidt's shoulder (he's likely done for the year) and Randy Wolf. But the bullpen is strong and will keep them in the race.
Faders- The White Sox are done. The Buehrle rumors are now squashed after his four-year deal, but they could still trade Dye (what a 180 he's done) and anyone else. The only highlight this year will be Thome's 500th homerun...and maybe a few Guillen tirades against his team.
- Toronto, though tied with the Yankees, simply do not have the pitching to compete. Two of their big offseason signings from two years ago--Burnett and Ryan--have been injured. And Vernon Wells was definetely not worth all that money--there's only one Carlos Beltran (and even he performed horribly the 1st year of his deal).
- Seattle, who's been the biggest suprise nobody talks about is likely to fall out of any run of the NL West or Wild Card. This is the team that was convinced they should sign Beltre and "Dream" Weaver.
- Atlanta has been better than expected. The hey days are over, but they are at best a .500 team and will be passed by the Phillies for 2nd place in the NL East.
- Florida, who's just behind the Phillies, are in third place, but not good enough yet. Maybe firing Girardi wasn't the best idea afterall...
- Colorado has improved with the coming of Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe. Francis has pitched well for a Rockie and Mike Hampton is still MIA.
- Finally, the real St. Louis Cardinals showed up this year. They ain't making the playoffs folks which means there won't be a fluke repeat. The team is old and in need of a makeover.
All this talk leaves teams who could come back and recover from a rough first half.
- Minnesota, like last year, should not be counted out. They still have Santana and some good young pitching (Garza, Bosner) that are going to do well. Morneau is having a solid follow up to his (undeserved) MVP. They will be in the AL Central race and Wild Card one.
- In the AL East, don't be suprised if Oakland comes through. Starring Haren, the best pitcher in the Al so far, Bill Beane has some things up his sleeve I'm sure.
- I was just watching Dennis Leary talk about the Red Sox and Yankees and he said he's nervous. "I'd rather be 10 games back than 10 games up", he said. I believe the Yankees have a chance. Despite the up and down, (more down), they have some great players. I'll say more about them on a special Hindsight and Foresight (upcoming).
- The Phillies will make a run at the NL East title. I'm shocked how much more power Rollins has these days, they have Utley the best 2bman in baseball, and Howard is bringing his power back. One setback is Lieber's injury along with Myers still sidelined.
- Finally, in the NL the Cubs are coming back. Maybe all that spending will come through and it will cause Zambrano to re-sign. Either way, slow starts and outbursts aside--somehow the team has rallied within 4.5 games of the Brew Crew.
AL East Yankees
AL Central Cleveland
AL West Anaheim
WC Boston
NL East Mets
NL Central Cubs
NL West Dodgers
WC Phillies
with Cleveland and the Dodgers in the World Series. I'm going to stick to those guns, but I'll say Boston wins the AL East and Detroit the WC. Otherwise the rest stays put.
One more Midseason Review to come looking at some players--plus a special Hindsight and Foresight reviewing the Yankees 1st half with a trip down memory lane as I'm going to re-read all the other Hindsight and Foresights.
Saturday, July 7, 2007
Fixing a Hole
Not much has been said about trade rumors on here yet and it's still too early to know what trades are likely to happen in baseball. Every year there are teams that are contending for the playoffs and trade for a player to make that extra push or there are teams that know they're out of contention and either rebuild or have a firesale or there are teams somewhere in the middle that stay on the sidelines and don't trade at all. The Red Sox fit the profile of the first description and the Yankees somewhere in the middle bewteen the last two.
Before getting into the rumors, there are a few teams likely to shake it up: the Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, Florida Marlins, Houston Astros, and Cinncinati Reds. The White Sox, who won the World Series only two years ago, are struggling and looking to unload a few players. The likely candidates are Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras, and Jermaine Dye. For the Rangers who are in last place, Mark Teixera, Eric Gagne, and Akinori Otsuka. In Florida it's Dontrell Willis their ace. Houston Brad "What Happened to Me after the Pujols HR in the 2004 NLCS" Lidge and in Cinncinati Adam Dunn, Griffey Jr, and someone in their bullpen.
And then there's the Red Sox and Yankees, 11 games apart in the AL East. In previous years these two would often be interested in the same player and try to out do each other with offers or try to block trades (for example, last year the Yankees tried blocking the Red Sox effort to get Doug Mirabelli back which then caused the Red Sox to offer up Cla Meredith and Josh Bard). Obviously the Yankees would unload any and all prospects because that was the Steinbrenner philosophy, but today we're living with the Cashman philosophy of rebuilding. The Red Sox on the other hand haven't had such a drastic change of course and made smart trades that have kept the team mentioned as World Series contenders.
With that in mind, what do the Yankees and Red Sox need this year and who are they looking to trade from their team?
Red Sox
Holes: SS, CF, SP
On-the-block: Crisp and Lugo, probably minor league prospects that I don't know
Of interest: Buerhle
In the Red Sox case, two of the holes are also the bait. Lugo has been aweful at SS and Crisp started off very slow only to be hampered by another hand injury like last year. If the Red Sox trade Lugo, they will have to eat a lot of his contract, so it'd be like Edgar Rentaria redux. Considering how bad Lugo is (currently batting .190), they will have to sell low, so look for Lugo to be part of a packaged deal. I doubt the Red Sox will trade for a SS and will just hand the job over to Alex Cora for the rest of the year. In Crisp's case, he's looked like an average major league outfielder. Nothing flashy and certainly not doing what Damon did as a Red Sock. Again, the Red Sox could switch the OF up and put Pena in CF for the remainder of the year or try Ellsbury out (or platoon the two). They would have to eat some of Coco's contract as well.
The only player of interest I've seen for the Red Sox is Mark Buerhle. While Tavarez has been better than anyone expected, it was inevitable he would go back to the bullpen. Although Jon Lester is getting himself back to full strength, the Red Sox seem to be on the side of caution and will make him part of the rotation next year. Going after Buerhle, who's a free agent after this season, would strengthen the rotation (Beckett, Schilling, Dice-K, Wakefield and Buerhle), give them a left handed starter they don't have, and give the Red Sox the opportunity to sign him to a deal. This would be huge considering Wakefield's age (and if Wake stays, he could go back to the bullpen--he's always been their utility pitcher) and Schilling's uncertain future.
Yankees
Holes: 1B, bullpen
On-the-block: A-Rod, Clippard, minor leaguers
Of interest: Shea Hillenbrand, Mark Teixera, Adam Dunn, Otsuka, Gagne, Octavio Dotel
The problem the Yankees have always had since 2002 is they are locked in with either long contracts and very expensive ones that no other team can take on. This has not allowed them to have a lot of flexibility and they would turn to their "farm system" to make some deals. But now that Cashman has the reins (while on the hook), he's been able to trade some of the expensive players (Sheffield, Johnson) to restock the "farm system" (I hear none of the prospects the Yankees got are working out). The 800 pound guerilla in the room right now is A-Rod. He's putting together a MVP caliber season and has the opt-out option in his contract this year. Considering who his agent is (Scott Boras), my bet is that he opts out and pulls a JD Drew, becoming a free agent. Unless the Yankees trade A-Rod--teams of interest are the Angels and the Dodgers--both in the playoff chase. Depending on the negotiations either A-Rod would agree to opt out and re-sign with his new team or the Yankees front load eating the rest of his contract. And besides A-Rod, they could do one of those quantity for quality type of deals and unload a few prospects (but not the top ones).
The Yankees need a full-time 1bman and bullpen help. It's more likely they'll go after someone in the bullpen considering the continued Torre treatment. Of top interest is Otsuka or Gagne from Texas. Gagne is playing in his first full season since 2004. He's definetely not the same Eric Gagne that won the Cy Young in 2003. Otsuka may be a better option, but likely need a better deal to get. There is also some talk of bringing Dotel back. At first base, things are a mess though Cashman would disagree having said, "First base, clearly, is a spot that we can play with. I'm not looking for anything major." Mientkiewicz and Phelps began the season platooning until Torre favored Mientkiewicz. Then Mientkiewicz went down with a bad injury and Phelps got his turn, but the difference in defense was quite stark. Phelps was then sent to the minors then picked up by the Pirates off waivers. While this was going on, Cairo, Damon, and Posada filled in until Andy Phillips was called up. Now that's a mess, maybe one you can play with, but it needs to be cleaned up. I've mentioned on here that the Yankees haven't had a realy full-time first baseman since Tino in 2001 (as in 140 or more games). Giambi never worked out and became the full-time DH and they they've had a long list of platoons and pick-ups that played there (Tino being one in 2005). Teixera would be a nice option, but would come at a cost--though the Yankees would get a player in his prime who they could lock up for several years with a new deal. The other decent option would be Adam Dunn, who is an OF, but who's career would benefit from moving to first (he's a terrible OFer). He has played first though, would benefit from the short RF porch, and Mattingly would work with him. Still a costly player to get. A final option, linked above, is to get Triple-A Shea Hillenbrand from the Angels. Hillenbrand who's always been overrated and is now a journeyman of sorts is currently in the minor leagues, but would just add to the mess at 1b this year.
Guess Who's Coming to Beantown/Bronx?
Doug and I will keep an eye on the trade rumor mill and talks will certainly heat up after the All-Star Break. We're not insiders though, so you'll hear any trades from another source, but we'll analyze what our teams did on here if anything happens.
Before getting into the rumors, there are a few teams likely to shake it up: the Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, Florida Marlins, Houston Astros, and Cinncinati Reds. The White Sox, who won the World Series only two years ago, are struggling and looking to unload a few players. The likely candidates are Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras, and Jermaine Dye. For the Rangers who are in last place, Mark Teixera, Eric Gagne, and Akinori Otsuka. In Florida it's Dontrell Willis their ace. Houston Brad "What Happened to Me after the Pujols HR in the 2004 NLCS" Lidge and in Cinncinati Adam Dunn, Griffey Jr, and someone in their bullpen.
And then there's the Red Sox and Yankees, 11 games apart in the AL East. In previous years these two would often be interested in the same player and try to out do each other with offers or try to block trades (for example, last year the Yankees tried blocking the Red Sox effort to get Doug Mirabelli back which then caused the Red Sox to offer up Cla Meredith and Josh Bard). Obviously the Yankees would unload any and all prospects because that was the Steinbrenner philosophy, but today we're living with the Cashman philosophy of rebuilding. The Red Sox on the other hand haven't had such a drastic change of course and made smart trades that have kept the team mentioned as World Series contenders.
With that in mind, what do the Yankees and Red Sox need this year and who are they looking to trade from their team?
Red Sox
Holes: SS, CF, SP
On-the-block: Crisp and Lugo, probably minor league prospects that I don't know
Of interest: Buerhle
In the Red Sox case, two of the holes are also the bait. Lugo has been aweful at SS and Crisp started off very slow only to be hampered by another hand injury like last year. If the Red Sox trade Lugo, they will have to eat a lot of his contract, so it'd be like Edgar Rentaria redux. Considering how bad Lugo is (currently batting .190), they will have to sell low, so look for Lugo to be part of a packaged deal. I doubt the Red Sox will trade for a SS and will just hand the job over to Alex Cora for the rest of the year. In Crisp's case, he's looked like an average major league outfielder. Nothing flashy and certainly not doing what Damon did as a Red Sock. Again, the Red Sox could switch the OF up and put Pena in CF for the remainder of the year or try Ellsbury out (or platoon the two). They would have to eat some of Coco's contract as well.
The only player of interest I've seen for the Red Sox is Mark Buerhle. While Tavarez has been better than anyone expected, it was inevitable he would go back to the bullpen. Although Jon Lester is getting himself back to full strength, the Red Sox seem to be on the side of caution and will make him part of the rotation next year. Going after Buerhle, who's a free agent after this season, would strengthen the rotation (Beckett, Schilling, Dice-K, Wakefield and Buerhle), give them a left handed starter they don't have, and give the Red Sox the opportunity to sign him to a deal. This would be huge considering Wakefield's age (and if Wake stays, he could go back to the bullpen--he's always been their utility pitcher) and Schilling's uncertain future.
Yankees
Holes: 1B, bullpen
On-the-block: A-Rod, Clippard, minor leaguers
Of interest: Shea Hillenbrand, Mark Teixera, Adam Dunn, Otsuka, Gagne, Octavio Dotel
The problem the Yankees have always had since 2002 is they are locked in with either long contracts and very expensive ones that no other team can take on. This has not allowed them to have a lot of flexibility and they would turn to their "farm system" to make some deals. But now that Cashman has the reins (while on the hook), he's been able to trade some of the expensive players (Sheffield, Johnson) to restock the "farm system" (I hear none of the prospects the Yankees got are working out). The 800 pound guerilla in the room right now is A-Rod. He's putting together a MVP caliber season and has the opt-out option in his contract this year. Considering who his agent is (Scott Boras), my bet is that he opts out and pulls a JD Drew, becoming a free agent. Unless the Yankees trade A-Rod--teams of interest are the Angels and the Dodgers--both in the playoff chase. Depending on the negotiations either A-Rod would agree to opt out and re-sign with his new team or the Yankees front load eating the rest of his contract. And besides A-Rod, they could do one of those quantity for quality type of deals and unload a few prospects (but not the top ones).
The Yankees need a full-time 1bman and bullpen help. It's more likely they'll go after someone in the bullpen considering the continued Torre treatment. Of top interest is Otsuka or Gagne from Texas. Gagne is playing in his first full season since 2004. He's definetely not the same Eric Gagne that won the Cy Young in 2003. Otsuka may be a better option, but likely need a better deal to get. There is also some talk of bringing Dotel back. At first base, things are a mess though Cashman would disagree having said, "First base, clearly, is a spot that we can play with. I'm not looking for anything major." Mientkiewicz and Phelps began the season platooning until Torre favored Mientkiewicz. Then Mientkiewicz went down with a bad injury and Phelps got his turn, but the difference in defense was quite stark. Phelps was then sent to the minors then picked up by the Pirates off waivers. While this was going on, Cairo, Damon, and Posada filled in until Andy Phillips was called up. Now that's a mess, maybe one you can play with, but it needs to be cleaned up. I've mentioned on here that the Yankees haven't had a realy full-time first baseman since Tino in 2001 (as in 140 or more games). Giambi never worked out and became the full-time DH and they they've had a long list of platoons and pick-ups that played there (Tino being one in 2005). Teixera would be a nice option, but would come at a cost--though the Yankees would get a player in his prime who they could lock up for several years with a new deal. The other decent option would be Adam Dunn, who is an OF, but who's career would benefit from moving to first (he's a terrible OFer). He has played first though, would benefit from the short RF porch, and Mattingly would work with him. Still a costly player to get. A final option, linked above, is to get Triple-A Shea Hillenbrand from the Angels. Hillenbrand who's always been overrated and is now a journeyman of sorts is currently in the minor leagues, but would just add to the mess at 1b this year.
Guess Who's Coming to Beantown/Bronx?
Doug and I will keep an eye on the trade rumor mill and talks will certainly heat up after the All-Star Break. We're not insiders though, so you'll hear any trades from another source, but we'll analyze what our teams did on here if anything happens.
Thursday, July 5, 2007
Half-Full or Half-Empty: Midseason Review Part I
Didn't yesterday feel like a Saturday? I actually went back to work today, so it felt like a bizzaro Sunday.
I'm not intentionally monopololizing this blog--I know Doug's situation well having seen it first hand and he'd be posting a lot with an internet connection--but the blog must go on for the fellow readers (I hope Mr. Clinton, Doug's father, is still reading--our biggest fan). And I just happen to be in the posting zone of late, so I'm running with it.
Last Thursday I wrote a brainstorming post about doing a few midseason reviews of the season and since I'm in for the evening and watching Josh Beckett do his thing against Tampa Bay, I thought I'd start tonight. I know that ESPN and all the other sports sites are going to do their reviews, so I hope we can say something new or humorous or a bit different.
Our midseason review is entitled, "Half-Full or Half-Empty", which is pretty self-explanatory . Part I is reviewing rookies this year. I want to answer the following questions: Who was hyped as a top rookie this year? How are these top rookies doing? Are there any suprise breakouts? And given what we know now, who will win Rookie of the Year (RoY) in the AL and NL?
First, I have to clarify a few things here. A rookie isn't a rookie until they play at least one game in the majors. Before that they're considered prospects and top prospects if scouts and analysts think they're going to make the majors. Also, they're only a rookie for so long according to baseball's rules.
Because of this, I have to fudge a couple things. Each year there are publications that put together a list of the top whatever number they pick of prospects. The main two I rely upon are Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. I've used these two sources to compile my list for review, however some players on their preseason lists aren't going to be reviewed because they haven't had an at-bat or thrown a pitch in the majors yet. Basically, anyone who's a rookie in the majors this year and was on their lists will be reviewed--well, only the top 10 and any suprises (there are 155 rookies playing this year).
Between Baseball America's and Baseball Prospectus' lists, here were their top 10 prospects more or less (with a caveat at the end):
1. Alex Gordon, 3B Royals
2. Delmon Young, OF Devil Rays
3. Phil Huges, SP Yankees
4. Homer Bailey, SP Reds
5. Brandon Wood, SS/3B Angels
6. Tim Lincecum, SP Giants
7. Ryan Braun, 3B Brewers
8. Matt Garza, SP Twins
9. Chris Young, OF Diamondbacks
10. Yovai Gallardo, SP Brewers
There's a difference between Baseball America's and Baseball Prospectus' lists however, and this is a debate that's gone on since 2001. Is a player who played in Japan (or another organized baseball league in another country) eligible for RoY honors? Baseball America thinks so, and lists Dice-K as the number one prospect this year. Baseball Prospectus does not and that's the side of the debate I fall on hence no Dice-K on the top 10 list (it has nothing to do with him being a Red Sox). But when the season ends, baseball itself will consider Dice-K a rookie based on their rules linked above.
For my quick-and-dirty analysis I'm using Baseball Prospectus' statistic Value Over Replacement Player or VORP (I'd have used Win Shares like the Biggio/Thomas post used, but those don't get released until the end of the year, not exactly an easy computation). Basically, it's a measure of a players total value over a replacement players'. A VORP of 20 is pretty good, MVPs usually have VORPs in starting in the high 30s, just to give some perspective. I've also put other stats in here that are more standard: BA/OBP/SLG HR RBI for hitters and
W-L/IP/ERA/K/BB for pitchers.
1. Alex Gordon, 3B Royals .228/.319/.356 6 HR 24 RBI, -1.6 VORP
Gordon was the most hyped prospect this year and rightfully so. Two years ago he was College Player of the Year and last year he was MVP in Double-A. He was posted on here back in mid-May when I grew frustrated with having him on my fantasy team after thinking he was a steal draft pick. Gordon's average is up almost 30 points since then, but his on-base skills and power are yet to be found (last year in his OBP was .427 and SLG .588). With BP projecting him for a .282/.363/.509 25 HR 83 RBI 35.7 VORP, it'll be difficult to get to that level. The talent is there though and he just need to command the strike zone like he once did.
2. Delmon Young, OF Devil Rays .272/.304/.406 9 HR 44 RBI, 1.9 VORP
Delmon's been on good behavior with blue, but putting up unspectacular numbers. He's a free swinger, as noted by the low OBP and started the season off with a 12-game hitting streak. However, pitchers certainly have probably found his weaknesses as Delmon has 66 Ks, ranked 15th in the AL right now. What's suprising though is the lack of HRs. Young is compared to Albert (Joey) Belle who put up 28 HRs in his first full season. Maybe Young just needs to make a small adjustment and then they'll be more than lightening coming from the skies in Tampa Bay.
3. Phil Hughes, SP Yankees 1-1/10.7 IP/3.38 ERA/11 K/4 BB, 3.0 VORP
Hughes came up a lot earlier than most expected (which would have been the 2nd half), but that was because of the Yankees early pitching injuries and ineffectiveness. He made two starts, the second where he took a no hitter on May 1st into the 6th inning before walking off the mound with a hamstring injury. He was about to end his rehabing when he sprained his ankle--a grade 3, the worst you can get. I hear now he's just getting out of the boot he's been wearing and throwing off the mound again, so it's a good sign. Reports say he'll be back in August. Despite this set back, it's not his throwing arm like a lot of great young pitching phenoms have had (ie Prior, Harden, Wood). He's certainly expected to be the next great homegrown Yankee pitcher as long as he stays healthy.
4. Homer Bailey, SP Reds 2-2/23.3 IP/8.10 ERA/10K/19 BB, 0.3 VORP
A Texas flamethrower, Bailey sure hasn't shown command of the strike zone with those 19 walks. He had a great start in Oakland on June 19th going 7 IP/2 H/4 BB/3 Ks/1 ER. But other than that it hasn't been all that great. Fortunately for Bailey, he hasn't given up the homerun ball all that much, even at home, considering the Reds stadium is very hitter friendly. Obviously the Reds are one of the worst teams in baseball this year, so don't expect a lot of wins for Bailey, but if he keeps overthrowing and putting runners on he'll probably be sent down. Then again, the Reds having nothing to lose but their manager--oh wait, Narron was fired already.
5. Brandon Wood, SS/3B Angels .091/.091/.091/0 HR/0 RBI, -2.3 VORP
He got called up in late April and got 11 at bats, striking out in five of them. Right now, Orlando Cabrera is blocking Wood at short and Chone Figgins at 3B. Erik Abayar, another rookie, has also blocked Wood. I believe Cabrera is a free agent at the end of the year and the Angels may not resign him the plan is to put Wood at SS. Anyhow, Wood was great back in 2005 single-A ball hitting .321/43 HR/115 RBI, but as he's moved up so have the K's and not the power. Currently in triple-A he's hitting .259/15 HR/51 RBI with 76 K's. So the question remains--can Wood hit for average and power in the majors or are the Angel's developing another Troy Glaus?
6. Tim Lincecum, SP Giants 3-2/66.0 IP/4.64 ERA/74 K/29 BB, -1.3 VORP
Only in college last year, Lincecum has been pretty decent. He has six quality starts out of 11 games started, and in three of those he gave up no ER. Obviously Lincecum has shown he can strike out hitters and has struck out 10 or more in two starts. The one concern has been his pitch count as he has thrown 100 or more pitches in six of his starts. Like Bailey, Lincecum's home park is hitter friendly, but has not given up too many homeruns (6 in 66 IP--yikes, 666!) and hasn't given one up since June 3rd. But overall, there aren't any major complaints other than he's a young guy on an old team that is in no way a playoff contender.
7. Ryan Braun, 3B Brewers .347/.385/.626/8 HR/29 RBI, 22.2 VORP
I'm not sure what the minimum number of plate appearances is this point in the season (225 maybe??) to qualify for the BA leader board, but if Braun had that and was batting .347, he'd be second in the NL in BA after Matt Holliday (.352). He actually wasn't predicted to be up until later this year, a September call up at best, but at the end of May he was hitting .342/10 HR/22 RBI in Triple-A and the Brewers took a chance (over Craig Counsell and Tony Graffinino). So far the hitting has continued. Braun is a player with tons of power that is still being developed. And while his defense isn't impressing anyone yet, the Brewers now have a homegrown IF of Braun, Hardy (SS), Weeks (2B), and Fielder. Considering that talent there and that the Brewers are now 48-36, Braun's call up has added to the excitement in the land of Kenosha beef.
8. Matt Garza, SP Twins 0-0/2.0 IP/0.00 ERA/1 K/0 BB, N/A VORP
Apparently the combination of Sidney Ponson, Scott Baker, and Kevin Slowey in the 5th starter spot is better than Garza's potential contribution. He's in Triple-A right now sporting a 4-6/92 IP/3.62 ERA/95 K/31 BB. Something must have caused the Twins to do this, but I can't find anything. My only educated guess is that the Twins are being cautious with another solid starter as they were with Santana and Liriano (well, they tried with Liriano). There isn't much to say about Garza other than he will probably be up in the 2nd half to take the #5 spot as the Twins try to take the Wild Card.
9. Chris Young, OF Diamondbacks .236/.279/.428/12 HR/30 RBI, 3.4 VORP
Not the Giants' pitcher Chris Young. This Young looks to have a lot of potential on a young Diamondback team. The OBP is anemically low, and like Delmon (no relation) he's a free swinger. Young's big issue this year have been setbacks with his groin (not sure which leg) and that has sat him down quite a few times. This has certainly contributed to his down-up-down season--batting .232 at the end of April, .277 the end of May, and now back in the .230s. He's also been placed all over the Diamondback's lineup batting leadoff, 5th 6th, 7th, and 8th. BP says he's a potential 30/30 guy. He could get 30 if he turned it up, but only has 9 SBs (100% success rate). Still only 23 though, he's got time on his side for now.
10. Yovai Gallardo, SP Brewers 1-1/22 IP/3.68 ERA/21 K/9 BB, 0.4 VORP
While he's only been up the last 3 or 4 weeks, the Brewers like what they've seen, albeit a small sample size. And like Braun how couldn't they have called him up--Gallardo was 8-3/77.2 IP/2.90 ERA/110 K/28 BB--oh and a .189 BAA. From what I've read, Gallardo who's the same age as Hughes and Bailey, is the #3 guy behind these two, and has decent but not overpowering stuff. Man all these young Brewers are making me want to start watching them more.
So that's where those guys are, but there are others to note. Hunter Pence should be mentioned first here. Pence has been a hit and RBI machine at the plate for the Astros but also has shown he can play a solid CF even with that hill in Houston. Reggie Willits, a 26 year old rookie playing LF for the Angels is 10th in the AL in hitting (.327) and shows good plate presense (.420 OBP). There's also "little Eck", Dustin Pedroia who has been displaying doubles power for the Red Sox this year. The feel good story so far this season is that of Josh Hamilton of the Reds--the former #1 draft pick in 1998 who was banned from baseball for three seasons for drug use and battled other personal issues. He made the team, started off hot, then had some bad gas (literally), which put him on the DL, but is now back in the lineup. And quickly, I can't forget Travis Buck (OAK; sounds like a country singer), Troy Tulowitzski (COL), Mike Fontenot (CHC), and James Loney (LAD)--all of whom have VORPs of 10.0 or higher.
Get On With It!!
So who's going to be RoY for the AL and NL? For the NL, I believe it's between Hunter Pence and Tim Lincecum. What it will come down to for the voters is how many wins Lincecum gets and if Pence can continue to hit over .300 while driving in runs. I give it to Pence though because of how good the NL West is where the Giants will finish last for sure.
In the AL, remember those Japanese players? There's Dice-K (30.1 VORP) but also the recently voted in All-Star Hideki Okajima (22.6 VORP). Okajima isn't the closer, so despite his sub-1.00 ERA, if that continues I doubt he'll get many votes for RoY. Therefore, Dice-K will likely get the RoY honors--he already has 10 wins and will break 200Ks. And honestly after these two pitchers, the only other candidate is another Red Sox player Pedroia. It's a sure thing the RoY will come out of Beantown--their first since Fred Lynn's RoY/MVP season in 1975.
One of us will continue on Sunday with Part II--not sure what'll be yet, but either a review of teams, hot/slow starts, or how awesome it is that Doug's got Comcast's internet streaming in his place.
I'm not intentionally monopololizing this blog--I know Doug's situation well having seen it first hand and he'd be posting a lot with an internet connection--but the blog must go on for the fellow readers (I hope Mr. Clinton, Doug's father, is still reading--our biggest fan). And I just happen to be in the posting zone of late, so I'm running with it.
Last Thursday I wrote a brainstorming post about doing a few midseason reviews of the season and since I'm in for the evening and watching Josh Beckett do his thing against Tampa Bay, I thought I'd start tonight. I know that ESPN and all the other sports sites are going to do their reviews, so I hope we can say something new or humorous or a bit different.
Our midseason review is entitled, "Half-Full or Half-Empty", which is pretty self-explanatory . Part I is reviewing rookies this year. I want to answer the following questions: Who was hyped as a top rookie this year? How are these top rookies doing? Are there any suprise breakouts? And given what we know now, who will win Rookie of the Year (RoY) in the AL and NL?
First, I have to clarify a few things here. A rookie isn't a rookie until they play at least one game in the majors. Before that they're considered prospects and top prospects if scouts and analysts think they're going to make the majors. Also, they're only a rookie for so long according to baseball's rules.
Because of this, I have to fudge a couple things. Each year there are publications that put together a list of the top whatever number they pick of prospects. The main two I rely upon are Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. I've used these two sources to compile my list for review, however some players on their preseason lists aren't going to be reviewed because they haven't had an at-bat or thrown a pitch in the majors yet. Basically, anyone who's a rookie in the majors this year and was on their lists will be reviewed--well, only the top 10 and any suprises (there are 155 rookies playing this year).
Between Baseball America's and Baseball Prospectus' lists, here were their top 10 prospects more or less (with a caveat at the end):
1. Alex Gordon, 3B Royals
2. Delmon Young, OF Devil Rays
3. Phil Huges, SP Yankees
4. Homer Bailey, SP Reds
5. Brandon Wood, SS/3B Angels
6. Tim Lincecum, SP Giants
7. Ryan Braun, 3B Brewers
8. Matt Garza, SP Twins
9. Chris Young, OF Diamondbacks
10. Yovai Gallardo, SP Brewers
There's a difference between Baseball America's and Baseball Prospectus' lists however, and this is a debate that's gone on since 2001. Is a player who played in Japan (or another organized baseball league in another country) eligible for RoY honors? Baseball America thinks so, and lists Dice-K as the number one prospect this year. Baseball Prospectus does not and that's the side of the debate I fall on hence no Dice-K on the top 10 list (it has nothing to do with him being a Red Sox). But when the season ends, baseball itself will consider Dice-K a rookie based on their rules linked above.
For my quick-and-dirty analysis I'm using Baseball Prospectus' statistic Value Over Replacement Player or VORP (I'd have used Win Shares like the Biggio/Thomas post used, but those don't get released until the end of the year, not exactly an easy computation). Basically, it's a measure of a players total value over a replacement players'. A VORP of 20 is pretty good, MVPs usually have VORPs in starting in the high 30s, just to give some perspective. I've also put other stats in here that are more standard: BA/OBP/SLG HR RBI for hitters and
W-L/IP/ERA/K/BB for pitchers.
1. Alex Gordon, 3B Royals .228/.319/.356 6 HR 24 RBI, -1.6 VORP
Gordon was the most hyped prospect this year and rightfully so. Two years ago he was College Player of the Year and last year he was MVP in Double-A. He was posted on here back in mid-May when I grew frustrated with having him on my fantasy team after thinking he was a steal draft pick. Gordon's average is up almost 30 points since then, but his on-base skills and power are yet to be found (last year in his OBP was .427 and SLG .588). With BP projecting him for a .282/.363/.509 25 HR 83 RBI 35.7 VORP, it'll be difficult to get to that level. The talent is there though and he just need to command the strike zone like he once did.
2. Delmon Young, OF Devil Rays .272/.304/.406 9 HR 44 RBI, 1.9 VORP
Delmon's been on good behavior with blue, but putting up unspectacular numbers. He's a free swinger, as noted by the low OBP and started the season off with a 12-game hitting streak. However, pitchers certainly have probably found his weaknesses as Delmon has 66 Ks, ranked 15th in the AL right now. What's suprising though is the lack of HRs. Young is compared to Albert (Joey) Belle who put up 28 HRs in his first full season. Maybe Young just needs to make a small adjustment and then they'll be more than lightening coming from the skies in Tampa Bay.
3. Phil Hughes, SP Yankees 1-1/10.7 IP/3.38 ERA/11 K/4 BB, 3.0 VORP
Hughes came up a lot earlier than most expected (which would have been the 2nd half), but that was because of the Yankees early pitching injuries and ineffectiveness. He made two starts, the second where he took a no hitter on May 1st into the 6th inning before walking off the mound with a hamstring injury. He was about to end his rehabing when he sprained his ankle--a grade 3, the worst you can get. I hear now he's just getting out of the boot he's been wearing and throwing off the mound again, so it's a good sign. Reports say he'll be back in August. Despite this set back, it's not his throwing arm like a lot of great young pitching phenoms have had (ie Prior, Harden, Wood). He's certainly expected to be the next great homegrown Yankee pitcher as long as he stays healthy.
4. Homer Bailey, SP Reds 2-2/23.3 IP/8.10 ERA/10K/19 BB, 0.3 VORP
A Texas flamethrower, Bailey sure hasn't shown command of the strike zone with those 19 walks. He had a great start in Oakland on June 19th going 7 IP/2 H/4 BB/3 Ks/1 ER. But other than that it hasn't been all that great. Fortunately for Bailey, he hasn't given up the homerun ball all that much, even at home, considering the Reds stadium is very hitter friendly. Obviously the Reds are one of the worst teams in baseball this year, so don't expect a lot of wins for Bailey, but if he keeps overthrowing and putting runners on he'll probably be sent down. Then again, the Reds having nothing to lose but their manager--oh wait, Narron was fired already.
5. Brandon Wood, SS/3B Angels .091/.091/.091/0 HR/0 RBI, -2.3 VORP
He got called up in late April and got 11 at bats, striking out in five of them. Right now, Orlando Cabrera is blocking Wood at short and Chone Figgins at 3B. Erik Abayar, another rookie, has also blocked Wood. I believe Cabrera is a free agent at the end of the year and the Angels may not resign him the plan is to put Wood at SS. Anyhow, Wood was great back in 2005 single-A ball hitting .321/43 HR/115 RBI, but as he's moved up so have the K's and not the power. Currently in triple-A he's hitting .259/15 HR/51 RBI with 76 K's. So the question remains--can Wood hit for average and power in the majors or are the Angel's developing another Troy Glaus?
6. Tim Lincecum, SP Giants 3-2/66.0 IP/4.64 ERA/74 K/29 BB, -1.3 VORP
Only in college last year, Lincecum has been pretty decent. He has six quality starts out of 11 games started, and in three of those he gave up no ER. Obviously Lincecum has shown he can strike out hitters and has struck out 10 or more in two starts. The one concern has been his pitch count as he has thrown 100 or more pitches in six of his starts. Like Bailey, Lincecum's home park is hitter friendly, but has not given up too many homeruns (6 in 66 IP--yikes, 666!) and hasn't given one up since June 3rd. But overall, there aren't any major complaints other than he's a young guy on an old team that is in no way a playoff contender.
7. Ryan Braun, 3B Brewers .347/.385/.626/8 HR/29 RBI, 22.2 VORP
I'm not sure what the minimum number of plate appearances is this point in the season (225 maybe??) to qualify for the BA leader board, but if Braun had that and was batting .347, he'd be second in the NL in BA after Matt Holliday (.352). He actually wasn't predicted to be up until later this year, a September call up at best, but at the end of May he was hitting .342/10 HR/22 RBI in Triple-A and the Brewers took a chance (over Craig Counsell and Tony Graffinino). So far the hitting has continued. Braun is a player with tons of power that is still being developed. And while his defense isn't impressing anyone yet, the Brewers now have a homegrown IF of Braun, Hardy (SS), Weeks (2B), and Fielder. Considering that talent there and that the Brewers are now 48-36, Braun's call up has added to the excitement in the land of Kenosha beef.
8. Matt Garza, SP Twins 0-0/2.0 IP/0.00 ERA/1 K/0 BB, N/A VORP
Apparently the combination of Sidney Ponson, Scott Baker, and Kevin Slowey in the 5th starter spot is better than Garza's potential contribution. He's in Triple-A right now sporting a 4-6/92 IP/3.62 ERA/95 K/31 BB. Something must have caused the Twins to do this, but I can't find anything. My only educated guess is that the Twins are being cautious with another solid starter as they were with Santana and Liriano (well, they tried with Liriano). There isn't much to say about Garza other than he will probably be up in the 2nd half to take the #5 spot as the Twins try to take the Wild Card.
9. Chris Young, OF Diamondbacks .236/.279/.428/12 HR/30 RBI, 3.4 VORP
Not the Giants' pitcher Chris Young. This Young looks to have a lot of potential on a young Diamondback team. The OBP is anemically low, and like Delmon (no relation) he's a free swinger. Young's big issue this year have been setbacks with his groin (not sure which leg) and that has sat him down quite a few times. This has certainly contributed to his down-up-down season--batting .232 at the end of April, .277 the end of May, and now back in the .230s. He's also been placed all over the Diamondback's lineup batting leadoff, 5th 6th, 7th, and 8th. BP says he's a potential 30/30 guy. He could get 30 if he turned it up, but only has 9 SBs (100% success rate). Still only 23 though, he's got time on his side for now.
10. Yovai Gallardo, SP Brewers 1-1/22 IP/3.68 ERA/21 K/9 BB, 0.4 VORP
While he's only been up the last 3 or 4 weeks, the Brewers like what they've seen, albeit a small sample size. And like Braun how couldn't they have called him up--Gallardo was 8-3/77.2 IP/2.90 ERA/110 K/28 BB--oh and a .189 BAA. From what I've read, Gallardo who's the same age as Hughes and Bailey, is the #3 guy behind these two, and has decent but not overpowering stuff. Man all these young Brewers are making me want to start watching them more.
So that's where those guys are, but there are others to note. Hunter Pence should be mentioned first here. Pence has been a hit and RBI machine at the plate for the Astros but also has shown he can play a solid CF even with that hill in Houston. Reggie Willits, a 26 year old rookie playing LF for the Angels is 10th in the AL in hitting (.327) and shows good plate presense (.420 OBP). There's also "little Eck", Dustin Pedroia who has been displaying doubles power for the Red Sox this year. The feel good story so far this season is that of Josh Hamilton of the Reds--the former #1 draft pick in 1998 who was banned from baseball for three seasons for drug use and battled other personal issues. He made the team, started off hot, then had some bad gas (literally), which put him on the DL, but is now back in the lineup. And quickly, I can't forget Travis Buck (OAK; sounds like a country singer), Troy Tulowitzski (COL), Mike Fontenot (CHC), and James Loney (LAD)--all of whom have VORPs of 10.0 or higher.
Get On With It!!
So who's going to be RoY for the AL and NL? For the NL, I believe it's between Hunter Pence and Tim Lincecum. What it will come down to for the voters is how many wins Lincecum gets and if Pence can continue to hit over .300 while driving in runs. I give it to Pence though because of how good the NL West is where the Giants will finish last for sure.
In the AL, remember those Japanese players? There's Dice-K (30.1 VORP) but also the recently voted in All-Star Hideki Okajima (22.6 VORP). Okajima isn't the closer, so despite his sub-1.00 ERA, if that continues I doubt he'll get many votes for RoY. Therefore, Dice-K will likely get the RoY honors--he already has 10 wins and will break 200Ks. And honestly after these two pitchers, the only other candidate is another Red Sox player Pedroia. It's a sure thing the RoY will come out of Beantown--their first since Fred Lynn's RoY/MVP season in 1975.
One of us will continue on Sunday with Part II--not sure what'll be yet, but either a review of teams, hot/slow starts, or how awesome it is that Doug's got Comcast's internet streaming in his place.
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