Today I finally turn my sights to the Cy Young races in the AL and NL. I am writing this one two week s after the first "Speculating Awards" came out because two weeks can make or break a pitcher. So now that it's the last week of baseball's regular season, I think it's safe to say I can make an assessment of who very well will win the Cy Young awards.
A quick reminder of the stats I will use. Like my assessment of the MVP, I will look at traditional pitching stats that voters tend to look at, present some additional stats to round out the traditional ones, and finally use a few Baseball Prospectus stats to sort things all out (unfortunately I am unable to get PERA and Stuff from the BP database, they usually publish those number in their annual book).
First a reminder of how to read BP's stats:
What is SNLVAR? It stands for Support Neutral Lineup Value Above Replacement player (or pitcher in this case). That means nothing, but the basic idea is that is counts how many wins abover a replacement pitcher the pitcher in question has if he pitched in neutral environment (adjusting for opposing lineup, ballpark, and how a traditional win was won). Essentially, SNLVAR tries to show that the traditional way of counting a win (that the starting pitcher has the lead and that lead is held) is decieving. A pitcher can give up 6 runs in 5 innings, but if the offense put up 10 on the board he gets the win despite a crummy performance.
I wrote this in the primer, but let's look at a couple of Beckett's starts this year to prove my point. On April 21st against the Yankees Beckett threw 6.2 innings and gave up 4 ER (actually 1 run was unearned, so 5 total). Not terrible, but not spectacular for a start. He did end up winning the game. On the flip side, on July 15th Beckett pitched 8 innings, gave up 2 ER and struck out 8, but he lost the game. Both cases show that the pitcher doesn't have complete control over their wins and that is what SNLVAR is for.
An additional stat is BABIP or Batting Average on Balls In Play. It is a measure of a pitchers defense behind him and his overall luck. The average BABIP is .290, but often times this measure fluctuates for a pitcher over time.
American League Cy Young
1. C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland Indians
Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 18-7/3.19/205
Non-Traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.14/19/.258/.391
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .316/6.5/61.7
How could I say Sabathia when he doesn't lead the AL in wins and has a slightly higher ERA than Josh Beckett? Well, to me Sabathia's numbers are a little better, but not by much. Maybe I'm relying too much on BPs stats, but they tell me that although Sabathia defense and luck are against him, he has contributed more wins to his team as shown by SNLVAR and VORP. But these numbers are very close between the two.
A key element to my decision making is that Sabathia has thrown a few more starts than Beckett. So what? Well, as I stated in the beginning of this post, a few starts can make or break a pitcher's season. Sabathia is a workhorse over the years, especially this one. His strikeout rate has increased every year since his rookie season, showing that he can get batters out alone. He's also seen his BB/9 decrease each year as well to a new career low of 1.38 this season. Overall this just shows me Sabathia has a bit more maturity, effectiveness at getting batters out and keeping them off the basepaths, and stamina than Beckett.
2. Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox
Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 20-6/194.7/3.14/188
Non-Traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.13/15/.240/.363
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .301/6.3/58.1
Beckett's great success this year was lowering his HRs from 41 last year to 15 this year. He also improved his GB% (ground ball percentage or the percentage of balls in play that are on the ground) to 48.5%. Although he has a better W-L record than Sabathia his SNLVAR and VORP are just a bit lower than Sabathia's. Beckett wasn't as dominating as Sabathia when facing hitters as the Red Sox defense and good luck play into his record.
But the numbers are close to Sabathia and it was a tough call to put Beckett second. I think he will win the Cy Young which shouldn't suprise anyone since Beckett was due for a great season like this one day.
3. Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians
Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 18-8/208/3.03/133
Non-Traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.22/14/.248/.348
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .284/6.7/60.9
Two weeks ago I may have put Chien-Ming Wang here, but his last couple of starts have been shakey--hence why I'm writing this post now. So you may be wondering, "hey Carmona has a higher SNLVAR than Sabathia and Beckett, AND his ERA is lower why is he third on your list?" Carmona is an interesting case. He doesn't strike out a lot of hitters, but his BABIP reflects his defense and luck is on his side more often than not when he pitches, which is a good thing considering he has relied on them more (his GB% is 64.7%). And his BAA is lower than Sabathia's as is his SLG. The problem for me is that he has 61 walks, which is more than what Sabathia and Beckett. It doesn't mean he is wild, but it puts him at a higher risk of allowing runs to score. Fortunately he didn't--and I'd do more investigating to see how many double plays he got and so forth. All in all, Carmona's record and other stats show some signs of a slightly weaker pitcher who relies upon his defense to get his outs. There is nothing wrong with that--that's exactly what Wang does as well--but Sabathia and Beckett are a bit better doing it on their own.
Other notable names for Cy Young consideration in no particular order:
John Lackey (essentially a tie for 3rd with Carmona, but I had to pick one), Chien-Ming Wang (another solid season), Johan Santana (the record doesn't do him justice), Erik Bedard (he'll be somewhere else when he's a free agent), Dan Haren (great first half), JJ Putz (best closer this year), and Roy Halladay (usually up there as long as he pitches as full a season as he can).
National League Cy Young
1. Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres
Tradiational Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 18-6/210.0/2.36/233
Non-traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.03/10/.202/.292
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .278/8.9/77.2
If any pitcher has been truly dominant this year in baseball it has been Peavy. Even if the Padres do not make the playoffs, which could be the case now after this past week, Peavy is the clear winner. He leads the NL in strikeouts and has held hitters to a .202 BAA. He hasn't given up many hits 6.6/nine innings and only gave up 10 HRs (I realize he plays in Petco however). The real sign of dominance is in his SNLVAR and VORP, both which lead the majors. And he also leads the majors in ERA.
After an up and down season last year, Peavy's Cy Young is a year off and I'd expect him to win a couple more after this one.
2. Brad Penny, Los Angeles Dodgers
Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 16-4/203.0/2.93/133
Non-traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.30/9/.259/.361
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .305/7.2/63.4
This year his arm has held in tac but won't be throwing in the playoffs. Penny has delivered another solid season with a great ERA and career highs in SNLVAR and VORP. His walks are a bit high (70) and he doesn't strike out a ton of batters like Peavy, but he keeps the ball on the ground (50.9% GB%) and out of the stands (9 HRs allowed). If Peavy wasn't around he'd be your NL Cy Young winner, but he's a few steps behind.
3. Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamonbacks
Traditional Stats (W-L/IP/ERA/SO): 17-10/229.3/3.02/192
Non-traditional Stats (Whip/HR/BAA/SLG): 1.18/12/.234/.332
BP Stats (BABIP/SNLVAR/VORP): .289/6.7/64.4
The 10 losses don't mean much, as the D-Backs are a very young team that doesn't have a great offense at all. Webb, who was last years Cy Young winner, had a tremendous second half going 9-4, but throwing 42 scoreless innings of work in five starts (three were complete game shutouts). It's a sure sign that Webb is a fierce pitcher who can get batters out with the K (he continues to improve like Sabathia in K's) and ground ball (63.2% GB%). Like Penny his walks are a bit high (70), but he held opposing batters to a .234 BAA and his defense is solid behind him.
Other notable names for Cy Young consideration in no particular order:
John Smoltz (his closer role for four years may have saved his arm some at 40), Roy Oswalt (pitched well on a terrible Astros team), Jose Valverde (another reason why the D-Backs will win the west), and Tim Hudson (great comeback year, put it back together).
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Monday, September 24, 2007
Hindsight and Foresight: Yankee Review September 17 to September 30th
With this blog the one post I've always made time for is this one and this happens to be the last one this year. I've used the "Hindsight and Foresight" posts as a method for me to keep up with the team, take a close look at what's been happening, and to comment on it. While I consider myself a dedicated Yankee fan, I don't catch all the games, read all the articles, and so forth, but throughout this season this was my refuge to say what I needed to say about the team.
Yes, it now looks like the Yankees are set to make the playoffs--and that's the first time I'm saying it because it looks like they're in this one. Throughout the season I was a skeptic--I have some proof below of what I said. Now I'll probably be a skeptic in the playoffs. There's no one way to describe the season other than it was one that started ugly and looked a hell of a lot better towards the end. I don't know what this will mean for the playoffs, it's still in the air who will play who in the AL, but assuming the Yankees have a solid last week of the regular season, they will get some good looks as contenders to go to the World Series.
Hindsight: Birth of Post to Today
I looked back at some things I wrote in previous "Hindsight and Foresights" and even going into the beginning of this month I offered lots of skepticism with a dash of hope at times.
In one of the first of these posts I said, "Last year, I predicted (wrongly), that the Yankees would not make the playoffs. I seem to be a year off with that prediction. " (5/28)
Shortly after I stated, "I was trying to think of what the positives for the Yankees are this season and honestly I can't think of any." (6/4)
When the Yankees started winning a lot right after the All-Star break I menioned, "But I've seen how this Yankee season has gone so if trends continue, this current streak is just another blip on the radar." (7/24)
And the beginning of this month I continued, "It's hard to say if the Yankees will make the playoffs after last week's performance. The great part was the sweep of the Red Sox at home. The worst part was watching them get beat out by the Devil Rays immediately afterwards." (9/3)
But I offered hope and advice during the year as well:
In May I made a very general comment, "The only advice I can give the Yankees today is to play better, with more intensity and work together as a team."
I continually said they need to beat the teams they need to beat, "But looking at it, the Yankees schedule could favor them if, as I keep saying over and over again, they beat the teams they can and need to beat." (7/12)
You can't pin the Yankees huge comeback on one factor or even two. I'll pin it to seven factors:
1. A-Rod's amazing season
2. Underperformers (esp Cano, Matsui, Abreau) finding faith in hitting
3. Solid pitching by Wang and Pettitte down the stretch
4. The Youngsters: Chamberlain, Cabrera, Hughes, Cano, Kennedy
5. Sticking with Cashman's Rebuilding plan
6. Overcoming distractions (Giambi steroid talk, injuries, A-Rod's contract)
7. Steinbrenner not panicing
When 2007 is over and done with, I'll discuss and give my big picture assessment. That won't be until November or so. But with that, for the final time in 2007 the weekly stats:
Weekly Stats
W-L: 5-1
RS/RA: 45/27
Offensive number (BA/OBP/SLG): .311/.407/.425
Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 3.92/1.32/7.39/.266/.371
Who's Hot: Mike Mussina, 1.93 ERA, 14 IP, 11 Ks, 2-0 just in time!
Who's Not: Jason Giambi, .100/.400/.100 and his foot's bothering him again.
My Yankee of the Week: The entire team, they've pulled it together and made me look like some crack pipe blog writer. Great season boys.
Foresight: September 24th to September 30th
This is it. The Yanks wrap up Toronto, head to Tampa Bay and then to Baltimore. And I get to take a vacation to California for 10 days. I will try to write some more--like the Cy Young Speculation post before I leave, but after Thursday you won't hear from me much until I get back. Thanks for reading these posts, your comments, and keep reading. I'll bring back Hindsight and Foresight next year.
Yes, it now looks like the Yankees are set to make the playoffs--and that's the first time I'm saying it because it looks like they're in this one. Throughout the season I was a skeptic--I have some proof below of what I said. Now I'll probably be a skeptic in the playoffs. There's no one way to describe the season other than it was one that started ugly and looked a hell of a lot better towards the end. I don't know what this will mean for the playoffs, it's still in the air who will play who in the AL, but assuming the Yankees have a solid last week of the regular season, they will get some good looks as contenders to go to the World Series.
Hindsight: Birth of Post to Today
I looked back at some things I wrote in previous "Hindsight and Foresights" and even going into the beginning of this month I offered lots of skepticism with a dash of hope at times.
In one of the first of these posts I said, "Last year, I predicted (wrongly), that the Yankees would not make the playoffs. I seem to be a year off with that prediction. " (5/28)
Shortly after I stated, "I was trying to think of what the positives for the Yankees are this season and honestly I can't think of any." (6/4)
When the Yankees started winning a lot right after the All-Star break I menioned, "But I've seen how this Yankee season has gone so if trends continue, this current streak is just another blip on the radar." (7/24)
And the beginning of this month I continued, "It's hard to say if the Yankees will make the playoffs after last week's performance. The great part was the sweep of the Red Sox at home. The worst part was watching them get beat out by the Devil Rays immediately afterwards." (9/3)
But I offered hope and advice during the year as well:
In May I made a very general comment, "The only advice I can give the Yankees today is to play better, with more intensity and work together as a team."
I continually said they need to beat the teams they need to beat, "But looking at it, the Yankees schedule could favor them if, as I keep saying over and over again, they beat the teams they can and need to beat." (7/12)
You can't pin the Yankees huge comeback on one factor or even two. I'll pin it to seven factors:
1. A-Rod's amazing season
2. Underperformers (esp Cano, Matsui, Abreau) finding faith in hitting
3. Solid pitching by Wang and Pettitte down the stretch
4. The Youngsters: Chamberlain, Cabrera, Hughes, Cano, Kennedy
5. Sticking with Cashman's Rebuilding plan
6. Overcoming distractions (Giambi steroid talk, injuries, A-Rod's contract)
7. Steinbrenner not panicing
When 2007 is over and done with, I'll discuss and give my big picture assessment. That won't be until November or so. But with that, for the final time in 2007 the weekly stats:
Weekly Stats
W-L: 5-1
RS/RA: 45/27
Offensive number (BA/OBP/SLG): .311/.407/.425
Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 3.92/1.32/7.39/.266/.371
Who's Hot: Mike Mussina, 1.93 ERA, 14 IP, 11 Ks, 2-0 just in time!
Who's Not: Jason Giambi, .100/.400/.100 and his foot's bothering him again.
My Yankee of the Week: The entire team, they've pulled it together and made me look like some crack pipe blog writer. Great season boys.
Foresight: September 24th to September 30th
This is it. The Yanks wrap up Toronto, head to Tampa Bay and then to Baltimore. And I get to take a vacation to California for 10 days. I will try to write some more--like the Cy Young Speculation post before I leave, but after Thursday you won't hear from me much until I get back. Thanks for reading these posts, your comments, and keep reading. I'll bring back Hindsight and Foresight next year.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
To the Wire
With just a little over a week left in the 2007 regular season, it's crazy how close several of these races to the playoffs have become. At this time there are 16 teams (by my count) that could still make the playoffs--it would take a big win streak for a couple to realistically make it (Atlanta and Seattle)--but you have to admit it's exciting.
I'm not here to brag, but the Red Sox lead is now down to 2.5 games. Doug already harped on the Boston writers, but it's amazing how on May 29th the Yankees were at their low point 14.5 games behind the Red Sox and now are the closest to them then they've ever been. It would blow my mind if the Yankees won the AL East but as I've said if they just make the playoffs as the Wild Card team, that would be pretty special, and their 13th playoff appearance in a row.
It looks like the Angels will win the AL West pretty soon seeing Seattle faded this month and are now 8.5 games behind. The Angels have been a successful team since 2002 and have appeared each year except for 2003 and 2006. They're also the favorite right now to go to the World Series and as a Yankee fan I find them a bit scary to play.
The Tigers who were closing in again on Cleveland and the Yanks have dropped two to the Tribe and wrapping up that series today. But although they are 6.5 behing the Indians and 4.5 in the Wild Card, they could still come back as they play the Royals and Twins to finish off the season. I do think the Indians should win the central and we'll finally get to see this rebuilt team who nearly made the playoffs two years ago display its young talent.
Once again the Mets are losing ground to the Phillies and have to contend with all of those NL West teams for a playoff spot. The Mets to me are a weak playoff team even if they make it, so if they happen to lose the NL East in these final days I wouldn't be suprised.
As for the NL Central, those Cards faded pretty badly, but it's a neck and neck race between the Brew crew and Cubbies. Unfortunatly, whoever loses doesn't get into the playoffs. The Cubs have the easier schedule here on out (Pirates, Marlins, and Reds) but anything is possible. Even if they are tied in W-L at the end of the year, the Cubs would win it since they lead the season series with the Brewers 9 games to 6.
Since 2004, the NL West has always been close. This year the Rockies have been the better team in the mix. A key series is going on this upcoming weekend as the D Backs play the Dodgers--this will determine the Dodgers fate for sure. I'm suprised the D Backs are leading this thing because San Diego is the better team to me. But the injury of Chris Young on SD has had an impact. This one's in the air.
Whatever happens we'll know in less than two weeks, and while the football season is getting more attention, I think these baseball playoff races are the thing to watch in sports right now.
I'm not here to brag, but the Red Sox lead is now down to 2.5 games. Doug already harped on the Boston writers, but it's amazing how on May 29th the Yankees were at their low point 14.5 games behind the Red Sox and now are the closest to them then they've ever been. It would blow my mind if the Yankees won the AL East but as I've said if they just make the playoffs as the Wild Card team, that would be pretty special, and their 13th playoff appearance in a row.
It looks like the Angels will win the AL West pretty soon seeing Seattle faded this month and are now 8.5 games behind. The Angels have been a successful team since 2002 and have appeared each year except for 2003 and 2006. They're also the favorite right now to go to the World Series and as a Yankee fan I find them a bit scary to play.
The Tigers who were closing in again on Cleveland and the Yanks have dropped two to the Tribe and wrapping up that series today. But although they are 6.5 behing the Indians and 4.5 in the Wild Card, they could still come back as they play the Royals and Twins to finish off the season. I do think the Indians should win the central and we'll finally get to see this rebuilt team who nearly made the playoffs two years ago display its young talent.
Once again the Mets are losing ground to the Phillies and have to contend with all of those NL West teams for a playoff spot. The Mets to me are a weak playoff team even if they make it, so if they happen to lose the NL East in these final days I wouldn't be suprised.
As for the NL Central, those Cards faded pretty badly, but it's a neck and neck race between the Brew crew and Cubbies. Unfortunatly, whoever loses doesn't get into the playoffs. The Cubs have the easier schedule here on out (Pirates, Marlins, and Reds) but anything is possible. Even if they are tied in W-L at the end of the year, the Cubs would win it since they lead the season series with the Brewers 9 games to 6.
Since 2004, the NL West has always been close. This year the Rockies have been the better team in the mix. A key series is going on this upcoming weekend as the D Backs play the Dodgers--this will determine the Dodgers fate for sure. I'm suprised the D Backs are leading this thing because San Diego is the better team to me. But the injury of Chris Young on SD has had an impact. This one's in the air.
Whatever happens we'll know in less than two weeks, and while the football season is getting more attention, I think these baseball playoff races are the thing to watch in sports right now.
Monday, September 17, 2007
Hindsight and Foresight: Yankee Review September 10th to September 23rd
If it were the playoffs right now, the Yankees would have the successful postseason formula this past week--strong pitching matters more than scoring lots of runs. It's actually a finding from Baseball Prospectus' book Baseball Between the Numbers in a chapter called "Why Doesn't Billy Beane's Shit Work in the Playoffs?". Basically, they find that postseason success correlates more with good pitching than good hitting. And this past week--even with a couple breakout games, the Yankees hitting was poor overall, but the pitching kept them in it.
Hindsight: September 10th to September 16th
Up north of the border, Hughes, Mussina, and Kennedy had very respectable outtings. This was a good sign since Hughes may be getting into the swing of things in the rotation and now has two quality starts in a row, Mussina got out of his rut after some rest, and Kennedy who has come in and filled in nicely so far. The bats went south in the final game as Brian Bruney gave up a 9th inning winning hit to Frank Thomas. But they still took 2 out of 3.
In the final showdown at Fenway the game's scripts went as follows: Yankee comeback win, Boston blowout, and a final nailbiter. I was able to catch the Yankees comeback on Friday night as soon as I turned on the TV. Okejima simply had a bad outting, leaving pitches up and not being able to find the strike zone. I was impressed how the Yankees quickly changed their strategy when Pappelbon came in as they went up hacking at early pitches. It paid off though and a six run inning ensued capping the win. Saturday's day game turned ugly for the Yankees pitching. Wang wasn't at his best, but the bullpen was worse as Ramirez, Villone, and Bruney gave up 4 ER in an inning of work combined. Beckett was very solid after giving up a solo shot in the 1st to Jeter. Then onto last night the series ended with a great pitching matchup between Schilling and Clemens. Clemens looked to be in good form, went a full 6 innings and allowing three hits. He had a couple tough spots, but Mientkiwicz stepped in with great glove work and saved some runs. Damon also had a nice sliding catch in left. The difference in the game was Jeter's three run homerun which was certainly a mistake pitch by Schilling. Whatever V Tek discussed with Schilling before that pitch didn't work out. It got very scary in the 9th as Rivera surrendered a run and then with the bases loaded and two outs, Ortiz was jammed and popped up to shallow center to seal the win.
Weekly Stats
W-L: 4-2
RS/RA: 27/25
Offensive Numbers (AVG/OBP/SLG): .213/.307/.396
Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 4.53/3.26/7.61/.228/.295
Who's Hot: Ian Kennedy--another great start to help the Yankees out and hurt his chances of being married in early October
Who's Not: Hideki Matsui--his line this month is .125/.308/.200 0 HR 3 RBI
My Yankee of the Week: Derek Jeter, playing hurt, he had a nice hit against Pappelbon and hit 2 HRs, one the game winner, agains the Red Sox
Foresight: September 17th to September 23rd
It would appear to be an easy schedule this week for the Yankees as they are back at home for the final homestand agains the O's and Blue Jays. My continued barage on the Yankees this year from the time they were aweful up to now has finally been echoed by Joe Torre. These are the teams they need to beat--and if they can't, do they really deserve to be in the playoffs--that's pretty much what he said in an interview this past week.
With two weeks left, these games can't be taken lightly either. The O's are 8-4 versus the Yankees this year and the Yanks aren't exactly killing the Jays either going 8-6 against them. The biggest thing right now are those Tigers who are getting into a nice win streak and are 2 games back in the Wild Card race. Certainly the Yankees and their fans (this one included) don't care about winning the AL East but care more about just getting in the playoffs--and if that happens it will have been quite the turnaround season.
Hindsight: September 10th to September 16th
Up north of the border, Hughes, Mussina, and Kennedy had very respectable outtings. This was a good sign since Hughes may be getting into the swing of things in the rotation and now has two quality starts in a row, Mussina got out of his rut after some rest, and Kennedy who has come in and filled in nicely so far. The bats went south in the final game as Brian Bruney gave up a 9th inning winning hit to Frank Thomas. But they still took 2 out of 3.
In the final showdown at Fenway the game's scripts went as follows: Yankee comeback win, Boston blowout, and a final nailbiter. I was able to catch the Yankees comeback on Friday night as soon as I turned on the TV. Okejima simply had a bad outting, leaving pitches up and not being able to find the strike zone. I was impressed how the Yankees quickly changed their strategy when Pappelbon came in as they went up hacking at early pitches. It paid off though and a six run inning ensued capping the win. Saturday's day game turned ugly for the Yankees pitching. Wang wasn't at his best, but the bullpen was worse as Ramirez, Villone, and Bruney gave up 4 ER in an inning of work combined. Beckett was very solid after giving up a solo shot in the 1st to Jeter. Then onto last night the series ended with a great pitching matchup between Schilling and Clemens. Clemens looked to be in good form, went a full 6 innings and allowing three hits. He had a couple tough spots, but Mientkiwicz stepped in with great glove work and saved some runs. Damon also had a nice sliding catch in left. The difference in the game was Jeter's three run homerun which was certainly a mistake pitch by Schilling. Whatever V Tek discussed with Schilling before that pitch didn't work out. It got very scary in the 9th as Rivera surrendered a run and then with the bases loaded and two outs, Ortiz was jammed and popped up to shallow center to seal the win.
Weekly Stats
W-L: 4-2
RS/RA: 27/25
Offensive Numbers (AVG/OBP/SLG): .213/.307/.396
Pitching Line (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA/SLG): 4.53/3.26/7.61/.228/.295
Who's Hot: Ian Kennedy--another great start to help the Yankees out and hurt his chances of being married in early October
Who's Not: Hideki Matsui--his line this month is .125/.308/.200 0 HR 3 RBI
My Yankee of the Week: Derek Jeter, playing hurt, he had a nice hit against Pappelbon and hit 2 HRs, one the game winner, agains the Red Sox
Foresight: September 17th to September 23rd
It would appear to be an easy schedule this week for the Yankees as they are back at home for the final homestand agains the O's and Blue Jays. My continued barage on the Yankees this year from the time they were aweful up to now has finally been echoed by Joe Torre. These are the teams they need to beat--and if they can't, do they really deserve to be in the playoffs--that's pretty much what he said in an interview this past week.
With two weeks left, these games can't be taken lightly either. The O's are 8-4 versus the Yankees this year and the Yanks aren't exactly killing the Jays either going 8-6 against them. The biggest thing right now are those Tigers who are getting into a nice win streak and are 2 games back in the Wild Card race. Certainly the Yankees and their fans (this one included) don't care about winning the AL East but care more about just getting in the playoffs--and if that happens it will have been quite the turnaround season.
Friday, September 14, 2007
Mel Hall
I had heard of this news back in June, but I just read ex-Yankee Mel Hall was indicted on charges of sexual assault. Another Yankee's life outside baseball ruined...
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Speculating Awards: The MVPs
Today I'm discussing my top three candidates for AL and NL MVP. If you read the previous post first, you'll have a better understanding of how I made these assessments which go into my arguments. Following this, I'll discuss the Cy Young and RoY awards within the next week I hope.
Note: The MVP stats are through September 12th.
American League MVP
1. Alex Rodriguez, 3B New York Yankees
Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .317/52/140
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .424/.667
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 92.8/75.7/.344
So far this season has been A-Rod's best in pinstripes and will be one of the top three of his career. Rodriguez leads the AL in HRs, RBIs, runs and slugging percentage, and ranks third in on-base percentage. He also has hit for a solid average, so by the traditional stats A-Rod should the the AL MVP at this point. What do BP's stats tell us though?
Well, A-Rod's VORP (value over replacement player) leads the majors by far. VORP tells us how many runs above a replacement player at A-Rod's position he's contributed. So if Miguel Cairo had played 3B all year and he's your typical replacement player, A-Rod's season produced 92.8 runs above what Cairo would have produced.
He also leads the majors in MLV (marginal lineup value). MLV is an estimate of how many additional runs a player adds if they were in a lineup of average hitters. In other words, if you have a lineup of average hitters, no one adds any more or less to production so the lineups average is zero. But if you put A-Rod in the lineup, he'd raise the offensive production of that lineup by 75.7 runs.
Finally, A-Rod also leads in EqA (Equivalent Average). EqA makes corrections in a players total offensive output given the ballparks they play in, league difficulty, baserunning, but not defense. An average EqA is .260 and A-Rods far above that. Being in a batting average format at .344 A-Rod's offensive production is better than what his traditional batting average tells us.
It would be a shock if A-Rod doesn't win the MVP award. But we already saw how A-Rod was snubbed of the award in 2002. Even so, it may not be unanymous as the runner-up has put up a great season as well.
2. Magglio Ordonez, RF Detroit Tigers
Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .358/27/132
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .430/.595
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 78.0/69.8/.334
No one would have thought Ordonez had a season like this in him. After signing with the Tigers in 2005 having been injured for the previous seasons, most critics considered the signing a huge risk and all but said Ordonez would become a DH pretty soon. That hasn't been the case at all. Last year Ordonez had a nice season for himself and this year has surpassed expectations.
Ordonez leads the AL in batting average, is second in on-base percentage, and is fourth in slugging. By BP's stats he's behind A-Rod in VORP, MLV, and his EqA is a bit lower mainly because of the AL Central being less competitive than the AL East.
All in all, if Ordonez wins the batting crown, gets over 30 HRs, and continues to drive in runs he may have a shot at winning the MVP in the eyes of the voters. It will also make some difference if the Tigers make the playoffs and not the Yankees. But in my view, he falls just short of MVP contention.
3. Jorge Posada, C New York Yankees
Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .338/20/85
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .423/.556
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 67.6/47.8/.324
I hear the grumbling already. What about David Ortiz or Vladimir Guerrero? They are both putting up nice seasons as well and have better traditional stats than Jorge. While I admire Big Papi's hitting--he's only a DH and a DH has never won the MVP no matter how great his offensive production (M's fans would understand this after Edgar Martinez's great seasons as a DH). So while Ortiz is 3rd in VORP (72.0), 3rd in MLV (60.5), first in OBP (.434), and 3rd in SLG (.599)--all MVP worthy numbers--he doesn't play in the field.
As for Vladi, Jorge is better at getting on base (.423 OBP vs .405), has a higher batting average (.338 vs. .327), and they have around the same SLG (.556 Jorge vs. .553 Vladi). By BP's numbers though the bigger differences is in VORP where Vladi's is 58.6, 9 or so runs lower than Jorge'z. It's close by all these numbers, but the big thing for me is that Jorge is a catcher. Most catchers do not put up a season like this one (even in Jorge's case) and that to me makes the case.
Other notable names for MVP consideration in no particular order:
Vlad Guerrero (noted above), Curtis Granderson (3rd player in the 20, 20, 20, 20 club--that 2Bs, 3Bs, HRs, and SBs), Carlos Pena (should get AL Comeback player of the year by all means), and Ichiro Suzuki.
National League MVP
1. Hanley Ramirez, SS Florida Marlins
Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .332/28/72
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .389/.575
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 84.6/56.5/.319
Let me first say in the eyes of the voters Ramirez most likely will not win the MVP, because the Marlins are not a winning team, but there is a point to my picking him. I have not heard his name even mentioned in discussions for the MVP, but he is having a tremendous year after winning the RoY award last year. And to be completely honest, I am sure he will win an MVP at some point in his career just seeing how amazing an all around player he is already.
Let's get to my assessment though. He is 4th in batting average, 4th in slugging, and just makes the top 10 in OBP. He's shown power with 28 HRs which is in the top 10 and is 3rd in stolen bases (46).
Going by BPs stats he is the VORP leader by far (David Wright is second at 72.0). He's also first in MLV, but not by a lot. Those are pretty good indicator of an MVP right there even if he won't drive in 100 RBIs. However, he's the leadoff hitter and 72 RBIs at that spot is pretty good--I'd say he gets 85 or so for the year.
You don't always need 100 RBIs to win the award though. Leadoff hitters have won the award. Remember Rickey Henderson's MVP award? That was in 1990, and although he hit 28 HRs and drove in only 61 RBIs, he beat out Cecil Fielder's 51 HRs and 132 RBIs. He also lead the majors in VORP with 86.2 which was well ahead of Cecil's 61.2. So the voters got it right that year.
So it is possible, except again that the Marlins are in the NL East cellar--the 1990 A's were just the opposite. But that doesn't matter to me--it's an individual award and he's the best in the NL.
2. David Wright, 3B New York Mets
Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .315/28/96
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .412/.542
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 69.5/50.1/.327
Wright's name has come up in MVP discussions and by all likelihood, he'll probably win it. Of course the Mets are probably in the playoffs and he's put up solid numbers having played in a pitcher friendly park. He's tied for 9th in RBIs, 10th in batting average, and 10th in homeruns. While his numbers certainly aren't dominating, they're all around solid and he also gets points for being a respectable player and leader in the league even at a young age.
By BP's numbers, Wright is 2nd in VORP and 7th in MLV (though not far behind Hanley and others). His EqA indicates how much Shea hurts his offensive production during the year. I'll also throw in that he's a top defensive 3Bman.
3. Matt Holliday, LF Colorado Rockies
Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .335/30/119
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .397/.590
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 62.3/52.6/.311
On the surface, Holliday's stats are better than Wright's or even Ramirez's, but remember where he plays (Coors Field). I argue that it's harder to put up good offensive numbers in a pitchers ballpark, which is why Holliday's 3rd.
Even so, Holliday has lower OBP than Wright and a lower VORP. Their MLVs are close, but if you look at Holliday's EqA you can see how much Coors Field impacts his offensive numbers.
Other notable names for MVP consideration in no particular order:
Chipper Jones (solid season considering his age), Miguel Cabrera (putting up another great year despite weight problems), Chase Utley (likely would win it if he didn't get injured), Prince Fielder (following in Dad's steps), and Albert Pujols (worst year of his career).
Note: The MVP stats are through September 12th.
American League MVP
1. Alex Rodriguez, 3B New York Yankees
Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .317/52/140
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .424/.667
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 92.8/75.7/.344
So far this season has been A-Rod's best in pinstripes and will be one of the top three of his career. Rodriguez leads the AL in HRs, RBIs, runs and slugging percentage, and ranks third in on-base percentage. He also has hit for a solid average, so by the traditional stats A-Rod should the the AL MVP at this point. What do BP's stats tell us though?
Well, A-Rod's VORP (value over replacement player) leads the majors by far. VORP tells us how many runs above a replacement player at A-Rod's position he's contributed. So if Miguel Cairo had played 3B all year and he's your typical replacement player, A-Rod's season produced 92.8 runs above what Cairo would have produced.
He also leads the majors in MLV (marginal lineup value). MLV is an estimate of how many additional runs a player adds if they were in a lineup of average hitters. In other words, if you have a lineup of average hitters, no one adds any more or less to production so the lineups average is zero. But if you put A-Rod in the lineup, he'd raise the offensive production of that lineup by 75.7 runs.
Finally, A-Rod also leads in EqA (Equivalent Average). EqA makes corrections in a players total offensive output given the ballparks they play in, league difficulty, baserunning, but not defense. An average EqA is .260 and A-Rods far above that. Being in a batting average format at .344 A-Rod's offensive production is better than what his traditional batting average tells us.
It would be a shock if A-Rod doesn't win the MVP award. But we already saw how A-Rod was snubbed of the award in 2002. Even so, it may not be unanymous as the runner-up has put up a great season as well.
2. Magglio Ordonez, RF Detroit Tigers
Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .358/27/132
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .430/.595
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 78.0/69.8/.334
No one would have thought Ordonez had a season like this in him. After signing with the Tigers in 2005 having been injured for the previous seasons, most critics considered the signing a huge risk and all but said Ordonez would become a DH pretty soon. That hasn't been the case at all. Last year Ordonez had a nice season for himself and this year has surpassed expectations.
Ordonez leads the AL in batting average, is second in on-base percentage, and is fourth in slugging. By BP's stats he's behind A-Rod in VORP, MLV, and his EqA is a bit lower mainly because of the AL Central being less competitive than the AL East.
All in all, if Ordonez wins the batting crown, gets over 30 HRs, and continues to drive in runs he may have a shot at winning the MVP in the eyes of the voters. It will also make some difference if the Tigers make the playoffs and not the Yankees. But in my view, he falls just short of MVP contention.
3. Jorge Posada, C New York Yankees
Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .338/20/85
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .423/.556
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 67.6/47.8/.324
I hear the grumbling already. What about David Ortiz or Vladimir Guerrero? They are both putting up nice seasons as well and have better traditional stats than Jorge. While I admire Big Papi's hitting--he's only a DH and a DH has never won the MVP no matter how great his offensive production (M's fans would understand this after Edgar Martinez's great seasons as a DH). So while Ortiz is 3rd in VORP (72.0), 3rd in MLV (60.5), first in OBP (.434), and 3rd in SLG (.599)--all MVP worthy numbers--he doesn't play in the field.
As for Vladi, Jorge is better at getting on base (.423 OBP vs .405), has a higher batting average (.338 vs. .327), and they have around the same SLG (.556 Jorge vs. .553 Vladi). By BP's numbers though the bigger differences is in VORP where Vladi's is 58.6, 9 or so runs lower than Jorge'z. It's close by all these numbers, but the big thing for me is that Jorge is a catcher. Most catchers do not put up a season like this one (even in Jorge's case) and that to me makes the case.
Other notable names for MVP consideration in no particular order:
Vlad Guerrero (noted above), Curtis Granderson (3rd player in the 20, 20, 20, 20 club--that 2Bs, 3Bs, HRs, and SBs), Carlos Pena (should get AL Comeback player of the year by all means), and Ichiro Suzuki.
National League MVP
1. Hanley Ramirez, SS Florida Marlins
Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .332/28/72
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .389/.575
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 84.6/56.5/.319
Let me first say in the eyes of the voters Ramirez most likely will not win the MVP, because the Marlins are not a winning team, but there is a point to my picking him. I have not heard his name even mentioned in discussions for the MVP, but he is having a tremendous year after winning the RoY award last year. And to be completely honest, I am sure he will win an MVP at some point in his career just seeing how amazing an all around player he is already.
Let's get to my assessment though. He is 4th in batting average, 4th in slugging, and just makes the top 10 in OBP. He's shown power with 28 HRs which is in the top 10 and is 3rd in stolen bases (46).
Going by BPs stats he is the VORP leader by far (David Wright is second at 72.0). He's also first in MLV, but not by a lot. Those are pretty good indicator of an MVP right there even if he won't drive in 100 RBIs. However, he's the leadoff hitter and 72 RBIs at that spot is pretty good--I'd say he gets 85 or so for the year.
You don't always need 100 RBIs to win the award though. Leadoff hitters have won the award. Remember Rickey Henderson's MVP award? That was in 1990, and although he hit 28 HRs and drove in only 61 RBIs, he beat out Cecil Fielder's 51 HRs and 132 RBIs. He also lead the majors in VORP with 86.2 which was well ahead of Cecil's 61.2. So the voters got it right that year.
So it is possible, except again that the Marlins are in the NL East cellar--the 1990 A's were just the opposite. But that doesn't matter to me--it's an individual award and he's the best in the NL.
2. David Wright, 3B New York Mets
Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .315/28/96
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .412/.542
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 69.5/50.1/.327
Wright's name has come up in MVP discussions and by all likelihood, he'll probably win it. Of course the Mets are probably in the playoffs and he's put up solid numbers having played in a pitcher friendly park. He's tied for 9th in RBIs, 10th in batting average, and 10th in homeruns. While his numbers certainly aren't dominating, they're all around solid and he also gets points for being a respectable player and leader in the league even at a young age.
By BP's numbers, Wright is 2nd in VORP and 7th in MLV (though not far behind Hanley and others). His EqA indicates how much Shea hurts his offensive production during the year. I'll also throw in that he's a top defensive 3Bman.
3. Matt Holliday, LF Colorado Rockies
Traditional stats (AVG/HR/RBI): .335/30/119
Non-traditional stats (OBP/SLG): .397/.590
BP's stats (VORP/MLV/EqA): 62.3/52.6/.311
On the surface, Holliday's stats are better than Wright's or even Ramirez's, but remember where he plays (Coors Field). I argue that it's harder to put up good offensive numbers in a pitchers ballpark, which is why Holliday's 3rd.
Even so, Holliday has lower OBP than Wright and a lower VORP. Their MLVs are close, but if you look at Holliday's EqA you can see how much Coors Field impacts his offensive numbers.
Other notable names for MVP consideration in no particular order:
Chipper Jones (solid season considering his age), Miguel Cabrera (putting up another great year despite weight problems), Chase Utley (likely would win it if he didn't get injured), Prince Fielder (following in Dad's steps), and Albert Pujols (worst year of his career).
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Speculating Awards: A Primer
Now that we're two weeks or so away from the end of the season, I'm finally ready to begin discussing and speculating who will be baseball's award winners this year (MVP, Cy Young, RoY). Some winners may be clear while others are debatable and I want to throw in my two cents, because my opinion may differ from those who will actually vote for these award next month.
- For MVP - Batting average, Homeruns, Runs Batted in
- For Cy Young - Earned Run Average, Wins, Strikeouts
- For RoY - Same as above if it's a hitter or pitcher
- For Gold Glove - Manager's perception
Many statheads in the baseball community, myself included, do not agree with using the traditional stats as noted above. For one, there are other stats to consider when evaluating a player. If you know about Moneyball for example it made a great case that on-base percentage is pretty darn important. Also, OPS (on-base plus slugging) is another good stat that isn't one the voters really look at for hitters.
The same arugement can be made of pitchers. Wins are a terrible statistic for assessing how well a pitcher pitched. What if the team's offense doesn't give a great pitcher any run support? Look at Kevin Millwood's 2005 season with Cleveland, he went 9-11 but lead the league in ERA (2.86). He got 3.98 runs/game started which was 39th in the AL for pitchers pitching at least 160 innings. Or vice versa what if the pitcher is terrible but the offense bails them out? Last year a pitcher named Jason Marquis won 14 games (losing 16) and had a 6.02 ERA.
But some of the traditional stats are somewhat biased and do not give as accurate a picture of a players performance. For example, players with lots of homeruns and runs batted tend to be batters in the middle (3rd to 5th) of the lineup. Does that mean a leadoff hitter who has a higher AVG, better OBP but less power is less valuable? Or another example--ballpark effects contribute to the raw stats a player puts up--will we ever get a Cy Young pitcher from Colorado--I doubt it.
How well a team does also matters as well. Usually the logic is this--a player is more valuable as long as his team performs better than an average team (or one at .500). Extra kudos tend to go to players on teams that make the playoffs too. For example, take a look at two AL 2002 MVP candidate's stats and then their team records:
.308 AVG/34 HRs/ 131 RBIs/.862 OPS Team record: 103-59
.300 AVG/57 HRs/142 RBIs/1.015 OPS Team record: 72-90
Who won the MVP? The first player Miguel Tejada who was on the 1st place Oakland A's won it, the other is Alex Rodriguez who put up his best power numbers of his career but was on the last place Texas Rangers. So team matters too and that tends to make things murkier when voting.
So when I consider who's an MVP or the best pitcher in baseball, I use other stats--mainly those of Baseball Prospectus, who have a wide range of their own stats that I personally find very valuable. Below are what I use with their definitions linked:
For hitters: VORP, MLV, and EqA.
For pitchers: VORP, BABIP, PERA, Stuff, and SNLVAR.
I'll explain these stats as I assess each award.
I'll get started with the MVPs in a couple days and am only giving my top three. Until then for our readers, how do you assess the awards?
I'm going to do this in three parts because as I started researching and writing this, it was taking a long time and it will be easier to digest for our readers. I'll first discuss the AL and NL MVPs in one entry, then AL and NL Cy Young's, and finally AL and NL Rookie of the Year. I may comment on Gold Gloves, but honestly the way that is awarded is truly a joke.
A Rant: An Introduction on Differences in Evaluating these Awards
First thing's first though--the awards come down to a couple things: 1) a players stats and 2) the team that player played on. It probably also matters that the voters "like" the player too. In any event, stats are the real key here, and traditionally these are the stats each award looks at:
- For MVP - Batting average, Homeruns, Runs Batted in
- For Cy Young - Earned Run Average, Wins, Strikeouts
- For RoY - Same as above if it's a hitter or pitcher
- For Gold Glove - Manager's perception
Many statheads in the baseball community, myself included, do not agree with using the traditional stats as noted above. For one, there are other stats to consider when evaluating a player. If you know about Moneyball for example it made a great case that on-base percentage is pretty darn important. Also, OPS (on-base plus slugging) is another good stat that isn't one the voters really look at for hitters.
The same arugement can be made of pitchers. Wins are a terrible statistic for assessing how well a pitcher pitched. What if the team's offense doesn't give a great pitcher any run support? Look at Kevin Millwood's 2005 season with Cleveland, he went 9-11 but lead the league in ERA (2.86). He got 3.98 runs/game started which was 39th in the AL for pitchers pitching at least 160 innings. Or vice versa what if the pitcher is terrible but the offense bails them out? Last year a pitcher named Jason Marquis won 14 games (losing 16) and had a 6.02 ERA.
But some of the traditional stats are somewhat biased and do not give as accurate a picture of a players performance. For example, players with lots of homeruns and runs batted tend to be batters in the middle (3rd to 5th) of the lineup. Does that mean a leadoff hitter who has a higher AVG, better OBP but less power is less valuable? Or another example--ballpark effects contribute to the raw stats a player puts up--will we ever get a Cy Young pitcher from Colorado--I doubt it.
How well a team does also matters as well. Usually the logic is this--a player is more valuable as long as his team performs better than an average team (or one at .500). Extra kudos tend to go to players on teams that make the playoffs too. For example, take a look at two AL 2002 MVP candidate's stats and then their team records:
.308 AVG/34 HRs/ 131 RBIs/.862 OPS Team record: 103-59
.300 AVG/57 HRs/142 RBIs/1.015 OPS Team record: 72-90
Who won the MVP? The first player Miguel Tejada who was on the 1st place Oakland A's won it, the other is Alex Rodriguez who put up his best power numbers of his career but was on the last place Texas Rangers. So team matters too and that tends to make things murkier when voting.
So when I consider who's an MVP or the best pitcher in baseball, I use other stats--mainly those of Baseball Prospectus, who have a wide range of their own stats that I personally find very valuable. Below are what I use with their definitions linked:
For hitters: VORP, MLV, and EqA.
For pitchers: VORP, BABIP, PERA, Stuff, and SNLVAR.
I'll explain these stats as I assess each award.
I'll get started with the MVPs in a couple days and am only giving my top three. Until then for our readers, how do you assess the awards?
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