Hindsight and Foresight: Yankees April Review, May Preview

This post isn't the one you have been waiting for. Much to my pleasant suprise Doug posted an entry on here and I didn't see it until a couple days later after which I pumped my fist in the air. Welcome back and I'm sure we'll see more coming!

But here from me is the seasons first Hindsight and Foresight which is now a monthly installment. I'm going to play around with how I write these. There will be stats and comments, and I'll throw my two cents in on decisions, quotes, and so forth. Anything I've posted on during the month already I'll just lead you back to what I wrote or if I have anything new to say, I'll just say it. So let's just get into this.



Hindsight: April Review

April was a tough month to watch. The new pitching combination of Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy failed to produce a win. The offense struggled. Injuries crept up on key players. And Hank Steinbrenner in his father's fashion blasted the team for not starting Joba (and clarified his comments later on). Was this a typical April in the Bronx?

Fans shouldn't be suprised with the lackluster and mediocre start by the Yankees in April. Here's how the last five April's have gone for the Yankees in terms of their record:

2008: 14-15
2007: 9-14
2006: 13-10 (tied first place with Boston)
2005: 10-14
2004: 12-11

Can the Pope be blamed for some of this? Well, the Yankees only had 11 home games because of his visit to Yankee Stadium. But they only won five of these games. Overall, the Yankees failed to put any sort of winning streak together. They hit three wins in a row twice and subsequently lose three in a row after both of those streaks. They won three series against teams (Toronto, Chicago, and Tampa Bay), split three (Boston, Tampa Bay and Cleveland), and lost the other three series (Kansas City, Boston, and Baltimore--I'm not counting Detroit which ended in May).

April Stats

W-L: 14-15
RS/RA: 125/133
Offense (AVG/OBP/SLG): .255/.324/.411
Pitching (ERA/Whip/K per 9/BAA): 4.56/1.41/6.55/.269

Who's Hot: Hideki Matsui was off to a .322/.425/.511/4 HR/13 RBI start
Who's Not: Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy (0-6 combined, each with ERAs over 8.00, more on this), also Robinson Cano is off to a terrible start (.151/.211/.236)

My Yankee of April: Although Matsui is great out of the gate, Melky Cabrera has been showing power early hitting 5 HRs (8 is his career high) and actually had more RBIs than Matsui (15).


Notes on Offense

• The Yankee offense scored only 4.3 runs/game in April
• Bobby Abreu known for a good batting eye, walked only 8 times against 24 strike outs.
• Robinson Cano, known as a "slow first half" player had his worst April to date. In the last two years he was hitting over .300 and then dropped off only to pick it up in the second half of the season. His rythm is off at the plate and he looks uncomfortable swinging.
• Jason Giambi isn't cutting it at first base. I have no stats to share on this, but after watching a few games he'll have to platoon more with someone else at first and DH (I just don't know if Duncan or Betemit's gloves are that much better though).

Notes on Pitching

• The Yankees will just have to deal with Kennedy and Hughes' poor starts. Hughes is now injured (more on in a bit), but both did not show any command on the mound. Kennedy has consistently worked behind in the count leading to lots of hits (10.9/nine innings) and walks (8.05/nine innings). Three of Hughes' starts lasted no more than 4 innings pitched. Just check out his game log.
• A bright spot is how quickly Mike Mussina has reinvented himself. See I knew that Stanford degree would come in handy again. Asked to pitch more like a "Jamie Moyer", Mussina has done just that throwing more breaking stuff and not relying as much on his fastball which got him in trouble a lot last year.
• In the bullpen LaTroy Hawkins is looking like the twin of Kyle Farnsworth. Hawkins has allowed every runner that was on base when he came in the game to score. Don't you think in his wind up he gives away his pitch (he doesn't cover the ball with his glove)?
• What's up with Wang? 6.23 K's/nine innings! We'll see if this holds up.

Injuries

Well, I noted this the other day before even more injuries came into play. Lots of injuries are going to put the Yankees in a precarious position this early in the season. To note:

• Brian Bruney tore something called a lisfrac in his foot. After getting three opinions, he is going to try to rehab and avoid season ending surgery. He won't be back until the second half at best.
• Wilson Betemit is recovering from pink eye and is playing in the minors right now.
• Phil Hughes somehow has a stress fracture in his ribs and is out until July. This is bringing back memories of Kevin Brown and Carl Pavano. Again, not an arm injury so no one's freaking out yet.
• Alex Rodriguez as I suspected has a grade 2 tear in his quad. He just needs rest, but his bat will be missed the next two weeks. Let's hope this isn't a lingering problem during the year--don't rush him back.
• Jorge Posada was probably the worst injury of all since he's never been on the DL and the Molina, Moeller combo behind the plate is weak at best. As reported by BP's Will Carroll, from MRIs Posada has a strained rotator cuff. They are getting multiple opinions, but the only way to know if anything serious is torn would be to open him up and look. Likely, he's going to miss 6 weeks and rehab the shoulder. However, if problems throwing still persist, expect him to be DHing a lot.
  

Foresight: May
The Yanks will has six series at home and four on the road in May. There are some key match ups against Detroit, Cleveland, the Mets, and Baltimore. Right now the offense is showing some signs of waking up and hopefully when A-Rod is back will be in full swing. The pitching is what is most concerning. While Wang, Pettitte, and Mussina are holding the line they could all have a bad month. Look for Kennedy to be sent to the minors and for spots starts from Rasner, Karstens, Henn, and dare I say it--Igawa.

Brother, Can You Spare a Run?

Sooo... what did I miss?

'Kay, I guess since I've posted, the Sox picked up Eric Gagne (yay!) and then let him actually pitch (boo!) then beat the Angels in 3 (yay!) then went down 3 games to 1 against the Indians (boo!), then they won 7 games in a row to win the World Series (double yay!) and then they resigned Lowell (yay!) and Schilling (eh?) and restrained themselves from trading Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden, Old Ironsides, Quincy Market, and the cast of "Cheers" for Johan Santana (more yaying!).

Which just about catches us up.

A month into the season, the Sox are locked in a life-and-death struggle for first place in the AL East with a truly terrible foe: the Baltimore Orioles. Apparently, the immortal outfield of Luke Scott, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis, the fiery leadership of Kevin Millar, the impending trade of Brian Roberts, and the rocket arms of Steve Trachsel, Jeremy Guthrie, and Brian Burres are what it takes to win in the East these days.

Clearly, both the Yankees and the Red Sox need to go back to the drawing board.

Nah, they'll be all right - we've weathered Baltimore springtime mirages before. Unfortunately, the Sox are currently fighting like Rocky in the second Creed fight, instead of like Rocky in the second Clubber fight - they're staying in it, but they're not landing the big punches they need to.

The recipe for catastrophe goes like this: take nine parts lack of run support, add six parts leaky bullpen, sprinkle liberally with injuries. Serve lukewarm.

The Big Worry, of course, is Big Papi. Is he still hurt? Is that Papi Shift really that effective? He is still second on the team in HRs, tied for first in RBIs, and alone in first for walks, so he's still doing most of the things he does that have made him who he is, he's just not doing it with a .300+ batting average.

The other trouble in River City is the distressing lack of run support. Two gems by Buchholz and Beckett were wasted this weekend when they were swept by the Dev- I mean, by the Rays, and outscored 10-5.

Even last night's (1-0) win over the Blue Jays required an essentially perfect pitching performance (thank you, Lester and Pap) and some bottom-of-the-ninth heroics to win the game. While it's nice to pull out a one-run game in the ninth, it's not necessarily a blueprint that any team can (or should) repeat at will.

The 2003-2005 Sox spoiled a lot of fans - I don't know if that kind of offensive juggernaut will ever come back, but this team should be able to score 5 a game and keep that many off the board.

Here They Come

The injury bug is upon the Yankees this last week. The biggest injury could potentially be Jorge Posada who can no longer throw as a catcher. He'll be seeing Dr. Andrews, the shoulder expert, this week but the prognosis doesn't look good based on Jorge's reaction.

Depending on the severity of the injury there's some good news out of this and that's that Posada's knees are in tact. It may look like Posada will become more of DH during the rest of his 4-year deal or they could put him at firstbase. Time will answer that question, but at this point Posda could miss a lot of 2008.

Brian Bruney, who dropped 20 pounds or so and was looking like a great middle reliever has also landed on the DL. He has a foot problem and torn tendons which may keep him on the DL for the rest of the season.

A-Rod also is dealing with a strained quad muscle which is effecting everything from running to his swing. I've had this injury before and it's tough to play through, so while he's still playing I also believe he's being conservative and therefore the team will not get the best results out of him. It wouldn't suprise me if he lands on the 15-day DL if this doesn't improve soon.

Finally, Joba had a tweak (or was it a twinge?) in his hamstring the other night in Chicago. There are no red flags because he's come back and is okay, however a hamstring injury is typical of power pitchers since they rely on their legs. I'm sure the Yankees are glad it wasn't anything bad this time.

Jumpin' Joba!! Hank's Ill-Advised Comments

Yankees starters are off to an ugly start, posting a 7-9 record with a 5.33 ERA. Wang and Pettitte have done well, but the rest have been hit hard (I personally witnessed this Friday and Saturday nights in Baltimore, more on this later). With the Yankees in fourth place, posting a .500 record overall, and out of Wild Card contention it was time to summon the brilliance of Hank Steinbrenner.

"There is no question about it, you don't have a guy with a 100-mile-per-hour fastball and keep him as a setup guy. You just don't do that. You have to be an idiot to do that."--Hank Steinbrenner

Hank said a few other things, but this statement said it all. Joba is being wasted as a set up guy for Mariano Rivera and would be better suited starting. Hank is correct about a few things that support his argument:

- Joba Chamberlain is a very good pitcher.
- Joba can throw heat upwards of 100 mph, along with a slider, curve and change up.
- Joba was a starter up until he came to the major leagues.
- Joba has shown he can be better than Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy (and 251 game winner Mike Mussina).
- Joba is a draw for Yankees fans (okay he didn't say that, but who wants to pay to see Joba pitch just one inning of work when you could see him for a few more??).

I see what Hank is saying and I don't completely disagree, with the exception that this "you" is being an "idiot"--no one's figured out if this is Girardi or Cashman or the editorial "you". What I do disagree with is several fundamental and practical things on the baseball level. But let's rewind the videotape a bit to give some context to this.

"Joba Rules"
Joba was brought up as an early August call up last year and quickly established himself as a reliable pitcher who could strike a lot of batters out and who had very good control (mechanically and mentally I would argue). But right away, Joe Torre implemented the "Joba Rules". He was limited to a pitch count. He rarely pitched more than one inning and only once did he pitch on back-to-back days.

There was a reason for these rules and it was quite simple: Joba was young and the Yankees didn't want him hurt. Afterall he was in their future plans and would be part of the rebuilding process. Even in the offseason, the "Joba Rules" included him being off limits for trades even when another young pitching phenom, Phil Hughes, was nearly traded for Johan Santana.

Of course we can point to a few players that give some practical examples of young arms that fell apart because the "Joba Rules" did not apply to them. These guys are the infamous: Rich Harden, Mark Prior, and Kerry Wood. There have been others though such as Jason Isringhausen and Pete Wilson (when with the Mets in the early 90s) or even AJ Burnett, Ryan Dempster, and Josh Beckett (formerly of the Marlins) who had their share of injuries early on. In these cases there are examples of high pitch counts, being overworked, not adjusting mechanics, and even random trips to the DL (ala Beckett's blisters '03-'05). Moreso, these early injuries not only cost them time on the DL, but may cost them a long and successful career--even if there were moments of greatness early on. So for Joba, who is just 22 years of age, the "Joba Rules" are there to prevent injury and the risk of putting his arm at risk for the next few years.

These "Joba Rules" continue into 2008. It appeared in the off-season that Joba would start the 1st half or so in the pen and by the 2nd half of the season ease his way into the rotation. Ironically, this is what the Twins did with Johan Santana from 2000 to 2003 (ages 21 to 24) and I don't need to repeat Santa's greatness since then. And I say ironic here, because I suspect that much of Hank's frustration comes from the fact that the Yankees could have had Santana right now and presumably have won a couple more games.

But my point goes without saying--an injuried or frequently injured Joba is the worse case scenario for the Yankees and it will pay to be cautious in the long-run with his arm.

There's No Proof Yet
Joba may have launched his way to the majors last year as a starting pitcher, but that was in the minor leagues. We also have to take into account that Joba has pitched 30.3 innings to date in the major leagues, which doesn't mean a whole lot right now. Take these two things with the fact that starting is a different mentality to switch from being a set up guy and it makes the situation a bit more complex. Right now there is no proof, track record, you name it that Joba would continue to pitch as well or better as a starter than he has as a reliever.

I don't know all the technical pieces about pitching, but I do know that as a starting pitcher you have to build up your arm strength, set the pace of the game, know how to pitch in certain situations, and be able to pitch from the stretch as well as non-stretch (probably not the correct term). I'm not saying Joba doesn't know how to do these things, but they all go into being the complete package of a good pitcher. For example, Joba may have the arm stength and be able to throw lots of 95+ mph fastballs, but he can't think he can strike everyone out when he's in trouble. All these factors need to be in check and balanced with each other so that he gains confidence and can learn from any mistakes he makes.

Is this even a Good Overall Strategy?
Let's say Joba goes into the rotation tomorrow--who gets bumped? Where does that person go? Who becomes the set up man?

There are the three candidates to be bumped based on their early struggles: Mussina, Kennedy, and Hughes. Hughes most likely will not be bumped. Kennedy, who I saw pitch Saturday night, could--he continues to pitch behind in counts. Mussina may be the most likely unless he starts pitching like Jamie Moyer as Hank also pointed out.

One of these guys would go to the bullpen or possibly the minors and then what? Mussina's always been a starter and was once considered one of the smartest pitchers in the game (Stanford helped too). We have no proof he'd make a good middle inning reliever at 38. Kennedy is young and a demotion could effect his confidence. The same with Hughes, mainly because he's one of the "future aces" in the game.

The Yankees will then have to rely on Kyle Farnsworth or LaTroy Hawkins as the set up guys, and you're just playing with gasoline and matches no matter who you pick. The impact could mean blown holds, leads, and no sure path to Rivera.

Word to the Wise and Idiots
Hank's statements are not as clear and dry once you take a lot of other factors into account. Personally, pushing Joba in the rotation so early into the season is not only jumping to conclusions, but puts Joba in a high pressure situation that he may or may not be up for. When Joba becomes a starter it will be under the advisement of the rules set up for him and done in a way that is natural for him to be ready to take the ball physically and mentally.

Slow Starts, Bad Starts, and Small Sample Sizes

Today I wanted to focus on something non-Rivalry oriented. This may relate to you if you have a fantasy baseball team (or two or ten), but in the realm of baseball comes down to player psychology, confidence, and getting off to a good start. I'm talking about batters who you expect to be good who start off slow or pitchers who you expect to win who keep getting creamed. I was inspired to write this when I saw in one of my fantasy baseball leagues C.C. Sabathia being dropped.

In this post I'm not aiming to give any fantasy advice--rather I want to make sure everyone understands that baseball's a long season and this early in the season is too early to make the prediction that a player is going to have a bad season. This leads me to the point of sample size. And I don't want to get into statistics too much here, but here's a long definition. For a quick and dirty definition, sample size is the basis for how statistics are measured--this goes for anything from sports to medicine to social science. The larger your sample size, or the number of things you're measuring/counting (wins or batting average or home runs in the baseball sense), the better able you are to draw conclusions or make predictions.

At this point in time in the 2008 baseball season, it's way to early to predict much of anything. Unless a player is injured, we may know what to expect in terms of playing time, but if someone is healthy and playing everyday we can't assess who's likely to be MVP now or what teams will be in the playoffs. What I have done is pick out batters having terrible starts who we expect to be better and pitchers also having terrible starts who've pitched much better than they are now. I've come up with a few categories that may explain why they're having a slow start--but these are just one factor into why.

Batters

I'll start with some batters first. I suppose we can throw around terms like slump and power sapped to describe some of these players. For example, why hasn't Prince Fielder who hit 50 HRs last year hit his first yet? Or shouldn't Ichiro be leading in batting by now?

Slow Starters

Sometimes players just get out of the gate slowly. Robinson Cano for example has shown he doesn't hit well in the first half and tears it up in the second half of the season. While it's frustrating to watch these players suffer early on, they eventually find their groove and start hitting the way they should.

2008 Slow Starters: Adam Dunn, Andruw Jones, Ryan Howard, Robinson Cano

Getting Old

Time is not on the side of most ballplayers to begin with, so for those who are still playing in their late 30s or early 40s age is certainly a big factor at any point in the season.

2008 Getting Old: Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, Paul Konerko

Bad Luck

There's this other thing in baseball called luck which is hard to explain. Hitters may be pounding the ball and swinging well, but the ball is hit at fielders or they happed to hit the ball off the bat in just the wrong spot. It's bad luck all around and the luck of the players below will change around I'm sure.

2008 Bad Luck: David Ortiz, Prince Fielder, Mark Texerira, Alfonso Soriano, Troy Tulowitzki

Pitchers

Pitchers are a different kind of animal. Since they haven't pitched actual games in the offseason (except for those who play in Mexican and other Latin American winter leagues) they are building back up arm strength, adjusting to new lineups, and trying to keep their pitch count down while going deep into games. At least this is my perception of how pitchers think--I hear they're a special group.

Mechanics

It's easy for pitchers to change their mechanics, experiment, or have some wrinkles early on in their delivery. This is the same for batters too, but pitchers have to repeat their wind up over and over again. Bad mechanics can lead to bad habits, leaving pitches over the plate, or worse yet lead to injury during the season.

2008 Bad Mechanics: CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Francisco Liriano, Roy Oswalt,

Jeff Francis

Possible Injuries

Some pitchers have a track record of injuries while others are coming back from them. Sometimes pitchers hide their injuries until it's too late and the damage is done. Others may not have been injured and have some early season soreness or "dead arms". Signs are their though that can be picked up on.

2008 Possible Injuries: Ted Lilly, Dontrelle Willis, Chris Young, Tom Gorzelanny, Jeremy Bonderman

I may be off base in the selection of these players, but all of them are off to bad starts. But we can't tell what kind of season any of them may have at this point. I think the majority will "regress to the mean", or have a season typical of their average season. A few may have break out seasons while others could possibly have their worst season ever. And some may end up on the DL for most of the year. Whatever may happen, we'll have a better idea later on of where these player's seasons are going.

Curses!

This story got going last week and I thought it would go away quickly, but now that a Red Sox jersey has been unearthed from the new Yankee Stadium I can't help but give my opinion on it.

My first thought regarding this was--talk about superstitions! Obviously they are big in baseball and pre-2004 "The Curse of the Bambino" still registered in New Englanders heads on a daily basis. Some people believe in this stuff while others do not. Apparently the Yankees do--what if they didn't win a World Series for another 86 to 100 years because of this one shirt?

More importantly, the Yankees should have been looking out for this sort of stuff from the get go. Why would they hire a construction worker who roots for their enemy? I mean, honestly shouldn't people from the Bronx be building the stadium?



All I have to say is that putting a curse on a sports team has to be done the right way. For instance:

• Why brag about putting the shirt in the stadium now rather than later? The guy blew it and probably will lose his job (or have to pay for the removal of the shirt). A curse like this should have been revealed well after the stadium was built. And why go to the media with it--the media ruins everything for all of us! He would have been more satisfied sitting on his porch retired at 80 telling his grandkids the cursed Ortiz jersey still lies somewhere in Yankee Stadium's foundation.

• If you want a real curse, you would have buried David Ortiz in the cement. This goes without saying. I'm sure the Yankees would have put a window in the cement so we could all wave at Ortiz.

• Curses only happen in retaliation to something. Babe Ruth cursed the Red Sox after they traded him. Some guy with a goat cursed the Cubs 100 years ago (by the way Cubby fans, the solution is to have a "Bring your goat to the ballpark night" every homegame this year). Now that "The Curse" is lifted, I don't know what this guy has against a new Yankee Stadium unless he's anti-development. So technically this wasn't a curse.

Silliness aside, this guy's getting his 15 minutes of fame and probably being applauded up in Beantown for his efforts. But was it a diversion from other Red Sox paraphrenalia buried in the cement? Or is the cement itself made in Boston? A curse may be upon the Yankees afterall...

2008 Rivalry Begins Tonight

Over the next week the Yankees and Red Sox will play each other five times--three games up at Fenway and two in the Bronx next week. Going into both series, there are some key injuries/bumps/bruises that could impact the outcomes of the games. On the Yankees side, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada are day-to-day and for the Sox Mike Lowell just went to the DL and Cora (not impact at all) and Timlin are both day-to-day.

What can I say differently about the rivalry this year? Well, yet again for the second time in four years the Yankees are looking up at a team who won the World Series. And last year was the first time since 1997 that the Yankees lost the AL East title. So, from both standpoints there is something to prove again: that the Red Sox are better than the Yankees and that the Yankees want to reclaim what is theirs.

The rivalry this year could be fun when the young pitchers on both sides potentially face off against each other. Wouldn't a Chamberlain/Bucholz matchup be great? How about debating who the better centerfielder is, Ellsbury or Melky? These new faces on both sides are potentially future greats who will compete against each other for years to come for the same reasons as before.

I'm not going to make any predictions, like who wins these series or if a bean ball war will start. To put it simply the rivalry is different than it once was now that the Red Sox are the team to beat and looking like the better team this decade so far. I'll be watching and hope you all enjoy it as much as I will.