Slow Starts, Bad Starts, and Small Sample Sizes

Today I wanted to focus on something non-Rivalry oriented. This may relate to you if you have a fantasy baseball team (or two or ten), but in the realm of baseball comes down to player psychology, confidence, and getting off to a good start. I'm talking about batters who you expect to be good who start off slow or pitchers who you expect to win who keep getting creamed. I was inspired to write this when I saw in one of my fantasy baseball leagues C.C. Sabathia being dropped.

In this post I'm not aiming to give any fantasy advice--rather I want to make sure everyone understands that baseball's a long season and this early in the season is too early to make the prediction that a player is going to have a bad season. This leads me to the point of sample size. And I don't want to get into statistics too much here, but here's a long definition. For a quick and dirty definition, sample size is the basis for how statistics are measured--this goes for anything from sports to medicine to social science. The larger your sample size, or the number of things you're measuring/counting (wins or batting average or home runs in the baseball sense), the better able you are to draw conclusions or make predictions.

At this point in time in the 2008 baseball season, it's way to early to predict much of anything. Unless a player is injured, we may know what to expect in terms of playing time, but if someone is healthy and playing everyday we can't assess who's likely to be MVP now or what teams will be in the playoffs. What I have done is pick out batters having terrible starts who we expect to be better and pitchers also having terrible starts who've pitched much better than they are now. I've come up with a few categories that may explain why they're having a slow start--but these are just one factor into why.

Batters

I'll start with some batters first. I suppose we can throw around terms like slump and power sapped to describe some of these players. For example, why hasn't Prince Fielder who hit 50 HRs last year hit his first yet? Or shouldn't Ichiro be leading in batting by now?

Slow Starters

Sometimes players just get out of the gate slowly. Robinson Cano for example has shown he doesn't hit well in the first half and tears it up in the second half of the season. While it's frustrating to watch these players suffer early on, they eventually find their groove and start hitting the way they should.

2008 Slow Starters: Adam Dunn, Andruw Jones, Ryan Howard, Robinson Cano

Getting Old

Time is not on the side of most ballplayers to begin with, so for those who are still playing in their late 30s or early 40s age is certainly a big factor at any point in the season.

2008 Getting Old: Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, Paul Konerko

Bad Luck

There's this other thing in baseball called luck which is hard to explain. Hitters may be pounding the ball and swinging well, but the ball is hit at fielders or they happed to hit the ball off the bat in just the wrong spot. It's bad luck all around and the luck of the players below will change around I'm sure.

2008 Bad Luck: David Ortiz, Prince Fielder, Mark Texerira, Alfonso Soriano, Troy Tulowitzki

Pitchers

Pitchers are a different kind of animal. Since they haven't pitched actual games in the offseason (except for those who play in Mexican and other Latin American winter leagues) they are building back up arm strength, adjusting to new lineups, and trying to keep their pitch count down while going deep into games. At least this is my perception of how pitchers think--I hear they're a special group.

Mechanics

It's easy for pitchers to change their mechanics, experiment, or have some wrinkles early on in their delivery. This is the same for batters too, but pitchers have to repeat their wind up over and over again. Bad mechanics can lead to bad habits, leaving pitches over the plate, or worse yet lead to injury during the season.

2008 Bad Mechanics: CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Francisco Liriano, Roy Oswalt,

Jeff Francis

Possible Injuries

Some pitchers have a track record of injuries while others are coming back from them. Sometimes pitchers hide their injuries until it's too late and the damage is done. Others may not have been injured and have some early season soreness or "dead arms". Signs are their though that can be picked up on.

2008 Possible Injuries: Ted Lilly, Dontrelle Willis, Chris Young, Tom Gorzelanny, Jeremy Bonderman

I may be off base in the selection of these players, but all of them are off to bad starts. But we can't tell what kind of season any of them may have at this point. I think the majority will "regress to the mean", or have a season typical of their average season. A few may have break out seasons while others could possibly have their worst season ever. And some may end up on the DL for most of the year. Whatever may happen, we'll have a better idea later on of where these player's seasons are going.

Curses!

This story got going last week and I thought it would go away quickly, but now that a Red Sox jersey has been unearthed from the new Yankee Stadium I can't help but give my opinion on it.

My first thought regarding this was--talk about superstitions! Obviously they are big in baseball and pre-2004 "The Curse of the Bambino" still registered in New Englanders heads on a daily basis. Some people believe in this stuff while others do not. Apparently the Yankees do--what if they didn't win a World Series for another 86 to 100 years because of this one shirt?

More importantly, the Yankees should have been looking out for this sort of stuff from the get go. Why would they hire a construction worker who roots for their enemy? I mean, honestly shouldn't people from the Bronx be building the stadium?



All I have to say is that putting a curse on a sports team has to be done the right way. For instance:

• Why brag about putting the shirt in the stadium now rather than later? The guy blew it and probably will lose his job (or have to pay for the removal of the shirt). A curse like this should have been revealed well after the stadium was built. And why go to the media with it--the media ruins everything for all of us! He would have been more satisfied sitting on his porch retired at 80 telling his grandkids the cursed Ortiz jersey still lies somewhere in Yankee Stadium's foundation.

• If you want a real curse, you would have buried David Ortiz in the cement. This goes without saying. I'm sure the Yankees would have put a window in the cement so we could all wave at Ortiz.

• Curses only happen in retaliation to something. Babe Ruth cursed the Red Sox after they traded him. Some guy with a goat cursed the Cubs 100 years ago (by the way Cubby fans, the solution is to have a "Bring your goat to the ballpark night" every homegame this year). Now that "The Curse" is lifted, I don't know what this guy has against a new Yankee Stadium unless he's anti-development. So technically this wasn't a curse.

Silliness aside, this guy's getting his 15 minutes of fame and probably being applauded up in Beantown for his efforts. But was it a diversion from other Red Sox paraphrenalia buried in the cement? Or is the cement itself made in Boston? A curse may be upon the Yankees afterall...

2008 Rivalry Begins Tonight

Over the next week the Yankees and Red Sox will play each other five times--three games up at Fenway and two in the Bronx next week. Going into both series, there are some key injuries/bumps/bruises that could impact the outcomes of the games. On the Yankees side, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada are day-to-day and for the Sox Mike Lowell just went to the DL and Cora (not impact at all) and Timlin are both day-to-day.

What can I say differently about the rivalry this year? Well, yet again for the second time in four years the Yankees are looking up at a team who won the World Series. And last year was the first time since 1997 that the Yankees lost the AL East title. So, from both standpoints there is something to prove again: that the Red Sox are better than the Yankees and that the Yankees want to reclaim what is theirs.

The rivalry this year could be fun when the young pitchers on both sides potentially face off against each other. Wouldn't a Chamberlain/Bucholz matchup be great? How about debating who the better centerfielder is, Ellsbury or Melky? These new faces on both sides are potentially future greats who will compete against each other for years to come for the same reasons as before.

I'm not going to make any predictions, like who wins these series or if a bean ball war will start. To put it simply the rivalry is different than it once was now that the Red Sox are the team to beat and looking like the better team this decade so far. I'll be watching and hope you all enjoy it as much as I will.

Worst Start to Season: 1988 Baltimore Orioles

So I looked up what team had the worst record to start the regular season and it was the 1988 Baltimore Orioles. The team lost 21 in a row to start the season, finally winning a game on April 29th, 1988. By the end of the season, the team was 54-107 and in dead last in the American League.

It's interesting to note who was on that team--this took me down memory lane a bit. The team was managed by Frank Robinson and taken over by Cal Ripken, Sr for the final six games. Some key players to note were:

Cal Ripken, Jr (27 at the time)
his brother Billy
Eddie Murray
Mickey Tettleton (who became a masher and OBP later in his career)
Fred Lynn (the first player to win RoY and MVP in the same season)
Joe Orsulak (he just had an interesting last name to me)
A young Brady Anderson
Mike Boddicker (only starting pitcher posting an ERA under 4.00 that year)
Mike Morgan (pre-journeyman days)
and Curt Schilling (who was a 21 year old rookie)

I don't expect the same fates for the Tigers. They've already had two 100+ loss seasons in 2002 and 2003 (losing 119 that year) this decade and are better than that now.

Some Notes on Our Blog/Reader Response

With the season in full swing I wanted to put some notes out there on what to expect from Doug and myself.

I suppose I should start with Doug first, the Red Sox writer on here. He doesn't have internet and just hasn't been able to post for a while. But he promises us he will be posting this season.

As for me, I'm going to write as much as I can considering I'm busier than last year especially at work. I've decided to change the "Hindsight and Foresight" posts that were weekly last year on a monthly basis. This will help to determine more big picture trends on the Yankees season and give me a better sample size to work from when analyzing player's statistics. I'll have my first one the beggining of May.

To any of our readers though, ask us questions or post comments on here. We can also be emailed at rivalyredux@gmail.com We'll even take non-Yankee/Red Sox questions. This is baseball, so there's always something to debate even if it's baseball history.

Reader Response

I thought I'd respond to our reader Rashad's comment that the Tigers are making him nervous. If you aren't looking at the standings yet, the Tigers are the worst team in baseball accoring to their 0-7 record. Should we be concerned this early? Probably not too much, unless they end up having the worst start ever in baseball history--and I'd have to look up what that was--then they'd have to make up a lot of ground.

What this may come down to for the Tigers is that the team needs to learn to gel better. With new players and some key injuries it's a matter of team chemistry. The Tigers are a very talented team on both sides of the ball and their management has put a top team on the field, so I think it's just a matter of time until they go on a huge tear.

Belated Predictions

I had these in my head and thought I'd throw them out although we're a week into the season. These are my predictions for the 2008 baseball season all around the majors.

Let's start with the big question, whose going to the playoffs and who will win the enchilada?

The road there...

AL
East: Red Sox
Central: Tigers
West: Mariners
Wild Card: Yankees

NL
East: Mets
Central: Brewers
West: Diamondbacks
Wild Card: Braves

Playoffs:
ALDS
Detroit Tigers over New York Yankees in 4 games
Boston Red Sox over Seattle Mariners in 4 games

NLDS
New York Mets over Arizona Diamondbacks in 4 games
Atlanta Braves over Milwaukee Brewers in 5

ALCS
Detroit Tigers over Boston Red Sox in 6 games

NLCS
Atlanta Braves over New York Mets in 7 games

World Series
Detroit Tigers over Atlanta Braves in 5 games

And the award goes to...

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP: David Wright
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy
AL RoY: Jacoby Ellsbury
NL RoY: Joey Votto

Yankee Player-by-Player Review and Preview

Player-by-Player Review/Preview

Projected Yankee lineup:
1. Damon LF/DH
2. Jeter SS
3. Abreu RF
4. A-Rod 3B
5. Matsui DH/LF
6. Posada C
7. Giambi 1B
8. Cano 2B
9. Cabrera CF

Key Bench: Duncan, Ensberg, Betemit

Johnny Damon '07 .270/.351/.396 '08 .276/.369/.424
(by the way, I am making the '08 projection completely up)

Damon was banged up most of 2007, lost his spot in center, and posted his lowest slugging percentage since 2001. Damon is past his peak years and looks more and more fragile with every swing and throw. He at least has a decent batting eye and should try to take more walks as he ages.

Derek Jeter '07 .322/.388/.452 '08 .315/.375/.442

We're either seeing a resurgance of Jeter the last two years or just a lead in to him fading out...slowly. Jeter will still hit well and has the sweetest in out, drive the ball the other way swing. His number may dip a bit this year--just a guess given he's 34 now.

Bobby Abreu '07 .283/.369/.445 '08 .298/.396/.440

Abreu had an awful first couple of months and his OBP suffered tremendously due to that (almost 30 points below his career). Given Abreu is in a walk year, is 34, and doesn't hit homeruns much--his SLG will continue to dip though I think he will boost his average to right around his career mark. It will be interesting whether Abreu is re-signed or not. The only players I'd consider the Yankees going after are Vladi (if his option is declined), Carl Crawford (same thing), Adam Dunn (terrible in the field though), or Manny (option).

Alex Rodriguez '07 .314/.422/.645 '08 .295/.405/.578

Putting my A-Fraud bashing from the offseason aside, part of me is looking forward to seeing what A-Rod can do as a Yankee for life now. He has a lot of redeeming to do. The biggest question I have is--is this an on year for A-Rod or an off-year? There's a pattern as a Yankee--'04, off-year; '05, MVP; '06 off-year; '07 MVP. Which A-Rod will show up this year? Last year was arguable his best of his career and I think it's hard to top. My guess is we won't get an MVP A-Rod, but someone not as bad as in '04 and '06 (and they weren't bad, but relative to his career and ages those year, not his best). I'd expect the power number to be 40-45 HRs, 120-135 RBIs. The real question for all fans is--can A-Rod hit in the playoffs?

Hideki Matsui '07 .285/.367/.488 '08 .280/.383/.496

Matsui put up a decent season despite a slow start. He's going to DH more and likely be more in a hitters mindset and not have to worry about playing the OF too much. I think Matsui is starting to fade a tad and I'd expect another year typical of 2007s. He hasn't been the Godzilla HR he was in Japan, but has been consistent in putting up at least 20 HRs and driving in 100 RBIs in full seasons.

Jorge Posada '07 .338/.426/.543 '08 .282/.386/.476

Well, there goes the career year. Expect things to be more normal along career numbers. He may not hit 20 HRs, but he'll get on base and as a catcher should be interesting to watch with the young guns. But more and more speedsters will take advatage of his poor catcher arm.

Jason Giambi '07.236/.356/.433 '08 .265/.423/.525

This has to be Giambi's last year as a Yankee and unfortunately for all the mystique and aura he spoke of in 2001, he won't be getting a ring. Probably the bad kharma. Giambi's taking over firstbase I hear and I read some stats somewhere that he hits better when playing the field than DHing. How many runs will he give up with his glove--quite a few. He may also get injured and miss quite a few games. If healthy though, we may get a season reminiscent of 2005 after he came back from an injury--don't expect more than 32 HRs though.

Robinson Cano '07 .306/.353/.488 '08 .335/.363/.492

Cano is my favorite Yankee right now and I'm expecting a solid season from him. He showed last year he could hit HRs and drive in runs (97 RBIs). I think he could hit 23 HRs and could drive in 80-95 runs. But as everyone keeps saying, he'll be in the mix for a batting title and this year he will be--a good candidate to get 200 hits.

Melky Cabrera '07 .273/.327/.391 '08 .282/.331/.402

Is this a growing up year for Melky? I believe so. He's still very young at 23 and approaching his prime. I can't figure out what sort of player he will be. He's got a decent eye and isn't a free swinger. Despite the patience he hasn't shown much power. What's interesting is his comparables in BP and on baseball-reference.com. In BPs 2008 annual one of his comparables is Carlos Beltran while another is Pete Rose--two very different player in terms of stats. On BR, there's Chet Lemon (player from 80s and 90s I remember), but also Roberto Clemente (#6 on the list). Melky can go either way--show good power over time and begin hitting for average or he may just be a league average OFer, but with a good arm in CF.

Bench Player Notes

The Yankees bench looks fairly weak. Shelly Duncan will platoon at 1b or DH and provides some power, but a low average and not much else (maybe another take out slide here and there). Morgan Ensberg who's shown success in the past is older and often injured at this point in his career, he'll fill in a 1b or 3b time to time. Finally Wilson Betemit is too much of a free swinger, but follows in the line of Yankee utility players who are hit or miss (usually the latter)--Luis Sojo, Enrique Wilson, Miguel Cairo.

Projected Starting Rotation

1. Wang

2. Pettitte

3. Hughes

4. Mussina/Chamberlain

5. Kennedy

(player stats listed as wins, losses, ERA, IP, Ks, BBs)

Chen Ming Wang '07 19-7 3.70/199.3/104/59 '08 16-10 4.25/212.3/110/55

If Wang had won 20 games last year (and been the only player to do so), would he have won the Cy Young? Probably not. There's some bias against players like Wang who win 19 games two seasons in a row, but aren't considered "dominating". He'll always have a low strikeout total, but he gets hitters out with the groundball. As long as the defense behind him is alright and he gets lots of run support, he'll put up wins. I don't expect another 19 win season, but somewhere around 15 and his ERA will go up as Wang seems to labor more in the second half.

Andy Pettitte '07 15-9/4.05/215.3/141/69 '08 12-7 4.15/188.1/126/58

Pettitte's year back in pinstripes was consistent and well received from the fans. I think everyone knew one day Pettitte would be back in New York. In the offseason he contemplated retirement again, his option was declined, but he came back despite the whole HGH and Clemens stuff. So is this it for Pettitte? I don't know, we'll see how he does. He's prone for an injury and if he retires, it'd be nice to do as a Yankee.

Phil Hughes '07 5-3/4.46/72.2/58/29 '08 11-9 4.32/174.0/145/73

This will be the full season for Hughes to see what direction he could go in. He pushed it a bit last year, straining his hammy in his second start and then injured his ankle while rehabbing. The good part about that is that it saved his arm some for this year. When he came back last year, he looked rusty at first, but by September he was in form. As any start rookie pitchers, the handling of Hughes comes down to pitch counts, innings pitched, and taking him out before he gets too shelled.

Mike Mussina '07 11-10/5.15/152.0/91/35 '08 5-8/4.87/143.2/82/32

Mussina may still have his whits about him, but his body is a former shell of itself. He's basically throwing junk and when he tries to get a fastball over, he leaves it in the zone to get creamed. Most likely Mussina will lose his spot in the rotation and be deemed to bullpen duty. Hopefully the least he can do is mentor the young pitchers on the side. This is likely it for Mussina in pinstripes unless he's willing to be a reliever from this point on in his career.

Joba Chamberlain '07 2-0/0.38/24.0/34/1 '08 9-3/2.68/134.5/140/33

Joba's rise and hype last year reminded me a bit of K-Rod in 2002, except K-Rod became a closer and Joba won't be. Then came the nats. Joba is great and has electric stuff, but he's young and we haven't seen him as a starter. I'm not sure what the "Joba Rules" are this year other than he's in the bullpen until someone gets injured, starts sucking a lot, or they think he's ready. Expect lots of Ks and reduced work, hopefully the hype doesn't get to him.

Ian Kennedy '07 1-0/1.89/19.0/15/9 '08 11-9/4.05/166.3/137/44

Kennedy is a player I know the least about. He only threw three major league games last year and that's not enough to indicate how he'd do. My expectation is that he'll be get better as the year goes on. There will be a few rough outtings early on, but he may end up being a quick learner.

Bullpen notables: LaTroy Hawkins, Kyle Farnsworth, Mariano Rivera

How Hawkins helps as a set up man is beyond me--he started falling apart 3-4 years ago as the Cubs' closer. If there's a way for the Yankees to trade Farnsworth they should take it. The innings are made exciting, but I often find myself cursing as soon as the bullpen door opens. Last year Mariano's closing talent began showing signs of cracking, but he should be solid this year.