So I looked up what team had the worst record to start the regular season and it was the 1988 Baltimore Orioles. The team lost 21 in a row to start the season, finally winning a game on April 29th, 1988. By the end of the season, the team was 54-107 and in dead last in the American League.
It's interesting to note who was on that team--this took me down memory lane a bit. The team was managed by Frank Robinson and taken over by Cal Ripken, Sr for the final six games. Some key players to note were:
Cal Ripken, Jr (27 at the time)
his brother Billy
Eddie Murray
Mickey Tettleton (who became a masher and OBP later in his career)
Fred Lynn (the first player to win RoY and MVP in the same season)
Joe Orsulak (he just had an interesting last name to me)
A young Brady Anderson
Mike Boddicker (only starting pitcher posting an ERA under 4.00 that year)
Mike Morgan (pre-journeyman days)
and Curt Schilling (who was a 21 year old rookie)
I don't expect the same fates for the Tigers. They've already had two 100+ loss seasons in 2002 and 2003 (losing 119 that year) this decade and are better than that now.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Some Notes on Our Blog/Reader Response
With the season in full swing I wanted to put some notes out there on what to expect from Doug and myself.
I suppose I should start with Doug first, the Red Sox writer on here. He doesn't have internet and just hasn't been able to post for a while. But he promises us he will be posting this season.
As for me, I'm going to write as much as I can considering I'm busier than last year especially at work. I've decided to change the "Hindsight and Foresight" posts that were weekly last year on a monthly basis. This will help to determine more big picture trends on the Yankees season and give me a better sample size to work from when analyzing player's statistics. I'll have my first one the beggining of May.
To any of our readers though, ask us questions or post comments on here. We can also be emailed at rivalyredux@gmail.com We'll even take non-Yankee/Red Sox questions. This is baseball, so there's always something to debate even if it's baseball history.
Reader Response
I thought I'd respond to our reader Rashad's comment that the Tigers are making him nervous. If you aren't looking at the standings yet, the Tigers are the worst team in baseball accoring to their 0-7 record. Should we be concerned this early? Probably not too much, unless they end up having the worst start ever in baseball history--and I'd have to look up what that was--then they'd have to make up a lot of ground.
What this may come down to for the Tigers is that the team needs to learn to gel better. With new players and some key injuries it's a matter of team chemistry. The Tigers are a very talented team on both sides of the ball and their management has put a top team on the field, so I think it's just a matter of time until they go on a huge tear.
I suppose I should start with Doug first, the Red Sox writer on here. He doesn't have internet and just hasn't been able to post for a while. But he promises us he will be posting this season.
As for me, I'm going to write as much as I can considering I'm busier than last year especially at work. I've decided to change the "Hindsight and Foresight" posts that were weekly last year on a monthly basis. This will help to determine more big picture trends on the Yankees season and give me a better sample size to work from when analyzing player's statistics. I'll have my first one the beggining of May.
To any of our readers though, ask us questions or post comments on here. We can also be emailed at rivalyredux@gmail.com We'll even take non-Yankee/Red Sox questions. This is baseball, so there's always something to debate even if it's baseball history.
Reader Response
I thought I'd respond to our reader Rashad's comment that the Tigers are making him nervous. If you aren't looking at the standings yet, the Tigers are the worst team in baseball accoring to their 0-7 record. Should we be concerned this early? Probably not too much, unless they end up having the worst start ever in baseball history--and I'd have to look up what that was--then they'd have to make up a lot of ground.
What this may come down to for the Tigers is that the team needs to learn to gel better. With new players and some key injuries it's a matter of team chemistry. The Tigers are a very talented team on both sides of the ball and their management has put a top team on the field, so I think it's just a matter of time until they go on a huge tear.
Monday, April 7, 2008
Belated Predictions
I had these in my head and thought I'd throw them out although we're a week into the season. These are my predictions for the 2008 baseball season all around the majors.
Let's start with the big question, whose going to the playoffs and who will win the enchilada?
The road there...
AL
East: Red Sox
Central: Tigers
West: Mariners
Wild Card: Yankees
NL
East: Mets
Central: Brewers
West: Diamondbacks
Wild Card: Braves
Playoffs:
ALDS
Detroit Tigers over New York Yankees in 4 games
Boston Red Sox over Seattle Mariners in 4 games
NLDS
New York Mets over Arizona Diamondbacks in 4 games
Atlanta Braves over Milwaukee Brewers in 5
ALCS
Detroit Tigers over Boston Red Sox in 6 games
NLCS
Atlanta Braves over New York Mets in 7 games
World Series
Detroit Tigers over Atlanta Braves in 5 games
And the award goes to...
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP: David Wright
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy
AL RoY: Jacoby Ellsbury
NL RoY: Joey Votto
Let's start with the big question, whose going to the playoffs and who will win the enchilada?
The road there...
AL
East: Red Sox
Central: Tigers
West: Mariners
Wild Card: Yankees
NL
East: Mets
Central: Brewers
West: Diamondbacks
Wild Card: Braves
Playoffs:
ALDS
Detroit Tigers over New York Yankees in 4 games
Boston Red Sox over Seattle Mariners in 4 games
NLDS
New York Mets over Arizona Diamondbacks in 4 games
Atlanta Braves over Milwaukee Brewers in 5
ALCS
Detroit Tigers over Boston Red Sox in 6 games
NLCS
Atlanta Braves over New York Mets in 7 games
World Series
Detroit Tigers over Atlanta Braves in 5 games
And the award goes to...
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP: David Wright
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy
AL RoY: Jacoby Ellsbury
NL RoY: Joey Votto
Sunday, April 6, 2008
Yankee Player-by-Player Review and Preview
Player-by-Player Review/Preview
Projected Yankee lineup:
1. Damon LF/DH
2. Jeter SS
3. Abreu RF
4. A-Rod 3B
5. Matsui DH/LF
6. Posada C
7. Giambi 1B
8. Cano 2B
9. Cabrera CF
Key Bench: Duncan, Ensberg, Betemit
Johnny Damon '07 .270/.351/.396 '08 .276/.369/.424
(by the way, I am making the '08 projection completely up)
Damon was banged up most of 2007, lost his spot in center, and posted his lowest slugging percentage since 2001. Damon is past his peak years and looks more and more fragile with every swing and throw. He at least has a decent batting eye and should try to take more walks as he ages.
Derek Jeter '07 .322/.388/.452 '08 .315/.375/.442
We're either seeing a resurgance of Jeter the last two years or just a lead in to him fading out...slowly. Jeter will still hit well and has the sweetest in out, drive the ball the other way swing. His number may dip a bit this year--just a guess given he's 34 now.
Bobby Abreu '07 .283/.369/.445 '08 .298/.396/.440
Abreu had an awful first couple of months and his OBP suffered tremendously due to that (almost 30 points below his career). Given Abreu is in a walk year, is 34, and doesn't hit homeruns much--his SLG will continue to dip though I think he will boost his average to right around his career mark. It will be interesting whether Abreu is re-signed or not. The only players I'd consider the Yankees going after are Vladi (if his option is declined), Carl Crawford (same thing), Adam Dunn (terrible in the field though), or Manny (option).
Alex Rodriguez '07 .314/.422/.645 '08 .295/.405/.578
Putting my A-Fraud bashing from the offseason aside, part of me is looking forward to seeing what A-Rod can do as a Yankee for life now. He has a lot of redeeming to do. The biggest question I have is--is this an on year for A-Rod or an off-year? There's a pattern as a Yankee--'04, off-year; '05, MVP; '06 off-year; '07 MVP. Which A-Rod will show up this year? Last year was arguable his best of his career and I think it's hard to top. My guess is we won't get an MVP A-Rod, but someone not as bad as in '04 and '06 (and they weren't bad, but relative to his career and ages those year, not his best). I'd expect the power number to be 40-45 HRs, 120-135 RBIs. The real question for all fans is--can A-Rod hit in the playoffs?
Hideki Matsui '07 .285/.367/.488 '08 .280/.383/.496
Matsui put up a decent season despite a slow start. He's going to DH more and likely be more in a hitters mindset and not have to worry about playing the OF too much. I think Matsui is starting to fade a tad and I'd expect another year typical of 2007s. He hasn't been the Godzilla HR he was in Japan, but has been consistent in putting up at least 20 HRs and driving in 100 RBIs in full seasons.
Jorge Posada '07 .338/.426/.543 '08 .282/.386/.476
Well, there goes the career year. Expect things to be more normal along career numbers. He may not hit 20 HRs, but he'll get on base and as a catcher should be interesting to watch with the young guns. But more and more speedsters will take advatage of his poor catcher arm.
Jason Giambi '07.236/.356/.433 '08 .265/.423/.525
This has to be Giambi's last year as a Yankee and unfortunately for all the mystique and aura he spoke of in 2001, he won't be getting a ring. Probably the bad kharma. Giambi's taking over firstbase I hear and I read some stats somewhere that he hits better when playing the field than DHing. How many runs will he give up with his glove--quite a few. He may also get injured and miss quite a few games. If healthy though, we may get a season reminiscent of 2005 after he came back from an injury--don't expect more than 32 HRs though.
Robinson Cano '07 .306/.353/.488 '08 .335/.363/.492
Cano is my favorite Yankee right now and I'm expecting a solid season from him. He showed last year he could hit HRs and drive in runs (97 RBIs). I think he could hit 23 HRs and could drive in 80-95 runs. But as everyone keeps saying, he'll be in the mix for a batting title and this year he will be--a good candidate to get 200 hits.
Melky Cabrera '07 .273/.327/.391 '08 .282/.331/.402
Is this a growing up year for Melky? I believe so. He's still very young at 23 and approaching his prime. I can't figure out what sort of player he will be. He's got a decent eye and isn't a free swinger. Despite the patience he hasn't shown much power. What's interesting is his comparables in BP and on baseball-reference.com. In BPs 2008 annual one of his comparables is Carlos Beltran while another is Pete Rose--two very different player in terms of stats. On BR, there's Chet Lemon (player from 80s and 90s I remember), but also Roberto Clemente (#6 on the list). Melky can go either way--show good power over time and begin hitting for average or he may just be a league average OFer, but with a good arm in CF.
Projected Yankee lineup:
1. Damon LF/DH
2. Jeter SS
3. Abreu RF
4. A-Rod 3B
5. Matsui DH/LF
6. Posada C
7. Giambi 1B
8. Cano 2B
9. Cabrera CF
Key Bench: Duncan, Ensberg, Betemit
Johnny Damon '07 .270/.351/.396 '08 .276/.369/.424
(by the way, I am making the '08 projection completely up)
Damon was banged up most of 2007, lost his spot in center, and posted his lowest slugging percentage since 2001. Damon is past his peak years and looks more and more fragile with every swing and throw. He at least has a decent batting eye and should try to take more walks as he ages.
Derek Jeter '07 .322/.388/.452 '08 .315/.375/.442
We're either seeing a resurgance of Jeter the last two years or just a lead in to him fading out...slowly. Jeter will still hit well and has the sweetest in out, drive the ball the other way swing. His number may dip a bit this year--just a guess given he's 34 now.
Bobby Abreu '07 .283/.369/.445 '08 .298/.396/.440
Abreu had an awful first couple of months and his OBP suffered tremendously due to that (almost 30 points below his career). Given Abreu is in a walk year, is 34, and doesn't hit homeruns much--his SLG will continue to dip though I think he will boost his average to right around his career mark. It will be interesting whether Abreu is re-signed or not. The only players I'd consider the Yankees going after are Vladi (if his option is declined), Carl Crawford (same thing), Adam Dunn (terrible in the field though), or Manny (option).
Alex Rodriguez '07 .314/.422/.645 '08 .295/.405/.578
Putting my A-Fraud bashing from the offseason aside, part of me is looking forward to seeing what A-Rod can do as a Yankee for life now. He has a lot of redeeming to do. The biggest question I have is--is this an on year for A-Rod or an off-year? There's a pattern as a Yankee--'04, off-year; '05, MVP; '06 off-year; '07 MVP. Which A-Rod will show up this year? Last year was arguable his best of his career and I think it's hard to top. My guess is we won't get an MVP A-Rod, but someone not as bad as in '04 and '06 (and they weren't bad, but relative to his career and ages those year, not his best). I'd expect the power number to be 40-45 HRs, 120-135 RBIs. The real question for all fans is--can A-Rod hit in the playoffs?
Hideki Matsui '07 .285/.367/.488 '08 .280/.383/.496
Matsui put up a decent season despite a slow start. He's going to DH more and likely be more in a hitters mindset and not have to worry about playing the OF too much. I think Matsui is starting to fade a tad and I'd expect another year typical of 2007s. He hasn't been the Godzilla HR he was in Japan, but has been consistent in putting up at least 20 HRs and driving in 100 RBIs in full seasons.
Jorge Posada '07 .338/.426/.543 '08 .282/.386/.476
Well, there goes the career year. Expect things to be more normal along career numbers. He may not hit 20 HRs, but he'll get on base and as a catcher should be interesting to watch with the young guns. But more and more speedsters will take advatage of his poor catcher arm.
Jason Giambi '07.236/.356/.433 '08 .265/.423/.525
This has to be Giambi's last year as a Yankee and unfortunately for all the mystique and aura he spoke of in 2001, he won't be getting a ring. Probably the bad kharma. Giambi's taking over firstbase I hear and I read some stats somewhere that he hits better when playing the field than DHing. How many runs will he give up with his glove--quite a few. He may also get injured and miss quite a few games. If healthy though, we may get a season reminiscent of 2005 after he came back from an injury--don't expect more than 32 HRs though.
Robinson Cano '07 .306/.353/.488 '08 .335/.363/.492
Cano is my favorite Yankee right now and I'm expecting a solid season from him. He showed last year he could hit HRs and drive in runs (97 RBIs). I think he could hit 23 HRs and could drive in 80-95 runs. But as everyone keeps saying, he'll be in the mix for a batting title and this year he will be--a good candidate to get 200 hits.
Melky Cabrera '07 .273/.327/.391 '08 .282/.331/.402
Is this a growing up year for Melky? I believe so. He's still very young at 23 and approaching his prime. I can't figure out what sort of player he will be. He's got a decent eye and isn't a free swinger. Despite the patience he hasn't shown much power. What's interesting is his comparables in BP and on baseball-reference.com. In BPs 2008 annual one of his comparables is Carlos Beltran while another is Pete Rose--two very different player in terms of stats. On BR, there's Chet Lemon (player from 80s and 90s I remember), but also Roberto Clemente (#6 on the list). Melky can go either way--show good power over time and begin hitting for average or he may just be a league average OFer, but with a good arm in CF.
Bench Player Notes
The Yankees bench looks fairly weak. Shelly Duncan will platoon at 1b or DH and provides some power, but a low average and not much else (maybe another take out slide here and there). Morgan Ensberg who's shown success in the past is older and often injured at this point in his career, he'll fill in a 1b or 3b time to time. Finally Wilson Betemit is too much of a free swinger, but follows in the line of Yankee utility players who are hit or miss (usually the latter)--Luis Sojo, Enrique Wilson, Miguel Cairo.
Projected Starting Rotation
1. Wang
2. Pettitte
3. Hughes
4. Mussina/Chamberlain
5. Kennedy
(player stats listed as wins, losses, ERA, IP, Ks, BBs)
Chen Ming Wang '07 19-7 3.70/199.3/104/59 '08 16-10 4.25/212.3/110/55
If Wang had won 20 games last year (and been the only player to do so), would he have won the Cy Young? Probably not. There's some bias against players like Wang who win 19 games two seasons in a row, but aren't considered "dominating". He'll always have a low strikeout total, but he gets hitters out with the groundball. As long as the defense behind him is alright and he gets lots of run support, he'll put up wins. I don't expect another 19 win season, but somewhere around 15 and his ERA will go up as Wang seems to labor more in the second half.
Andy Pettitte '07 15-9/4.05/215.3/141/69 '08 12-7 4.15/188.1/126/58
Phil Hughes '07 5-3/4.46/72.2/58/29 '08 11-9 4.32/174.0/145/73
This will be the full season for Hughes to see what direction he could go in. He pushed it a bit last year, straining his hammy in his second start and then injured his ankle while rehabbing. The good part about that is that it saved his arm some for this year. When he came back last year, he looked rusty at first, but by September he was in form. As any start rookie pitchers, the handling of Hughes comes down to pitch counts, innings pitched, and taking him out before he gets too shelled.
Mike Mussina '07 11-10/5.15/152.0/91/35 '08 5-8/4.87/143.2/82/32
Mussina may still have his whits about him, but his body is a former shell of itself. He's basically throwing junk and when he tries to get a fastball over, he leaves it in the zone to get creamed. Most likely Mussina will lose his spot in the rotation and be deemed to bullpen duty. Hopefully the least he can do is mentor the young pitchers on the side. This is likely it for Mussina in pinstripes unless he's willing to be a reliever from this point on in his career.
Joba Chamberlain '07 2-0/0.38/24.0/34/1 '08 9-3/2.68/134.5/140/33
Joba's rise and hype last year reminded me a bit of K-Rod in 2002, except K-Rod became a closer and Joba won't be. Then came the nats. Joba is great and has electric stuff, but he's young and we haven't seen him as a starter. I'm not sure what the "Joba Rules" are this year other than he's in the bullpen until someone gets injured, starts sucking a lot, or they think he's ready. Expect lots of Ks and reduced work, hopefully the hype doesn't get to him.
Ian Kennedy '07 1-0/1.89/19.0/15/9 '08 11-9/4.05/166.3/137/44
Kennedy is a player I know the least about. He only threw three major league games last year and that's not enough to indicate how he'd do. My expectation is that he'll be get better as the year goes on. There will be a few rough outtings early on, but he may end up being a quick learner.
Bullpen notables: LaTroy Hawkins, Kyle Farnsworth, Mariano Rivera
How Hawkins helps as a set up man is beyond me--he started falling apart 3-4 years ago as the Cubs' closer. If there's a way for the Yankees to trade Farnsworth they should take it. The innings are made exciting, but I often find myself cursing as soon as the bullpen door opens. Last year Mariano's closing talent began showing signs of cracking, but he should be solid this year.
Monday, March 31, 2008
Yankees 2008 Preview
I didn't forget about the Yankees preview as I wanted to do it before the Yankees first game. Luckily it was rained out today and it gives me the chance to write it while they are still 0-0. I'll just right into it.
There are many changes going on in the Bronx--new starters, new owners making decisions (and comments on Red Sox Nation among other things), a new manager, new contracts, and a new stadium in the works. And with changes come many questions--the biggest being (as it is every year) can the Yankees make the World Series?
Well, the word "can" is probably the wrong thing to say. "Can" they? Yes, they have a shot, but so do 29 other teams albeit the Yankees chances are better than the majority of them. But going further, will they is clearly another question. And I'll put it up front that no I do not think the Yankees will be in the World Series this year. Playoffs? There have been a few times after 2001 I said they would not and been wrong every time. They seem to make it every year either with a key trade or certain player stepping up--you name it. I think the offense will enable them to make it this year, so yes, the Yankees will be in the playoffs in 2008.
But there are more important questions at hand than a World Series. This is a new team of sorts, with a semi-rebuilding plan in place, and I'm pretty excited to see how it will turn out. What I've come up with is a list of my Top 5 questions for the Yankees this year with my speculative answers.
TOP 5 QUESTIONS for the Yankees
1. How will Joe Girardi manage in his first year?
I think Giradi was the right choice, but it will take fans a while to get used to the other Joe who was part of the last Yankee dynasty, has a year of managing under his belt, and overall is a smart baseball man. One thing I expect to change is Girardi's use of the bullpen. During Torre's reign there was always that one or two relievers, excluding Rivera, that Torre relied on--sometimes not to his benefit. Remember Tom Gordon, Proctor, Quantrill, among others? I don't think that will happen. I also would not expect Girardi to manage the way he did with the 2005 Marlins--that was a young team without much veteran presence. With the 2008 Yankees, it's a mix of vets and rookies. I think Girardi will be great for the pitching staff having been a great catcher and teaching Posada the ropes in the late 90s. But overall, I expect Girardi to be more of a manager that relies on stats and is more strategic than Torre to get the W.
2. Is the young pitching that good?
There are a few young pitchers coming in--two into the starting rotation with a third on its way. To me Phil Hughes is the more exciting of the group, but he has less of the hype this year. We saw flashes of how great Hughes could be last year giving up no hits in his second start and pitching very well in the playoffs. Then there's Ian Kennedy who is compared to a young Mike Mussina (with the benefit of having Mussina on the team). He only made three starts, was great, but Kennedy comes down to how long he can go. There's also Russ Ohlendorf in the pen. Aquired from the Tigers in the Sheffield deal my guess is that he should be limited, I don't know what situations he is right for, but he's probably a middle inning reliever. Finally, there's Joba who's starting off the year in the pen and will eventually be worked into the starting rotation. There's lots of hype around Joba and we all saw why last year. Don't put him out with the bugs, but the one thing he does not need is to listen to the hype, develop an ego, and then we find ourselves disappointed just like those Matrix 2 and 3 movies. The transition will be important with Joba however, if Pettitte or Mussina go down with an injury I'd expect them to go with Joba immediately.
This doesn't really answer the question because honestly we don't know if they will be good. It could be a mixed bag, these guys are young and have many mistakes to learn from. But the talent is there and it's a great thing for a staff who the last few years has been old and decrepid.
3. Can the team stay healthy?
I'm no Will Carroll from BP and never liked biology all that much, so this is really a shot in the dark. There are certain guys I'm worried about namely Jason Giambi, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada, Hideki Matsui, and Johnny Damon mostly because of their age and past injuries (or their position like Posada). Last year it was the pitching that was injured early and often. As long as pitch counts are monitored for the youngins that situation should be okay. I'm going to guess the Yankees deal with some injuries more of the offensive side of the ball this year. I think Damon will be on the DL for sure and Giambi is highly likely as well.
4. Will the Steinbrenner Bros. take on Dad's philophy?
There was a great article about how different the Steinbrenner brothers are. Hal (or is it Hank--I can't keep them straight yet) is 11 years younger, cool, calm and mild mannered and handles the numbers. Hank is more like his father (and looks like him too) and so far has "spoke his mind" as he puts it on A-Rod and the Red Sox. While this is something we'll know more of over time I don't think there will ever be another George Steinbrenner. Both brothers will want to win, but I don't think the antics are there.
5. Will the Yankees make the playoffs?
Yes. My guess is that the Yankees get the Wild Card again. There offense is too good and barring any injuries will compete with the Tigers to be the best offense in the AL. Getting to the playoffs won't be easy--the Tigers are better, the Indians are great, Seattle made improvements, the Angels are in the mix and oh yeah, there's those Red Sox who won this World Series thing to worry about.
There are many changes going on in the Bronx--new starters, new owners making decisions (and comments on Red Sox Nation among other things), a new manager, new contracts, and a new stadium in the works. And with changes come many questions--the biggest being (as it is every year) can the Yankees make the World Series?
Well, the word "can" is probably the wrong thing to say. "Can" they? Yes, they have a shot, but so do 29 other teams albeit the Yankees chances are better than the majority of them. But going further, will they is clearly another question. And I'll put it up front that no I do not think the Yankees will be in the World Series this year. Playoffs? There have been a few times after 2001 I said they would not and been wrong every time. They seem to make it every year either with a key trade or certain player stepping up--you name it. I think the offense will enable them to make it this year, so yes, the Yankees will be in the playoffs in 2008.
But there are more important questions at hand than a World Series. This is a new team of sorts, with a semi-rebuilding plan in place, and I'm pretty excited to see how it will turn out. What I've come up with is a list of my Top 5 questions for the Yankees this year with my speculative answers.
TOP 5 QUESTIONS for the Yankees
1. How will Joe Girardi manage in his first year?
I think Giradi was the right choice, but it will take fans a while to get used to the other Joe who was part of the last Yankee dynasty, has a year of managing under his belt, and overall is a smart baseball man. One thing I expect to change is Girardi's use of the bullpen. During Torre's reign there was always that one or two relievers, excluding Rivera, that Torre relied on--sometimes not to his benefit. Remember Tom Gordon, Proctor, Quantrill, among others? I don't think that will happen. I also would not expect Girardi to manage the way he did with the 2005 Marlins--that was a young team without much veteran presence. With the 2008 Yankees, it's a mix of vets and rookies. I think Girardi will be great for the pitching staff having been a great catcher and teaching Posada the ropes in the late 90s. But overall, I expect Girardi to be more of a manager that relies on stats and is more strategic than Torre to get the W.
2. Is the young pitching that good?
There are a few young pitchers coming in--two into the starting rotation with a third on its way. To me Phil Hughes is the more exciting of the group, but he has less of the hype this year. We saw flashes of how great Hughes could be last year giving up no hits in his second start and pitching very well in the playoffs. Then there's Ian Kennedy who is compared to a young Mike Mussina (with the benefit of having Mussina on the team). He only made three starts, was great, but Kennedy comes down to how long he can go. There's also Russ Ohlendorf in the pen. Aquired from the Tigers in the Sheffield deal my guess is that he should be limited, I don't know what situations he is right for, but he's probably a middle inning reliever. Finally, there's Joba who's starting off the year in the pen and will eventually be worked into the starting rotation. There's lots of hype around Joba and we all saw why last year. Don't put him out with the bugs, but the one thing he does not need is to listen to the hype, develop an ego, and then we find ourselves disappointed just like those Matrix 2 and 3 movies. The transition will be important with Joba however, if Pettitte or Mussina go down with an injury I'd expect them to go with Joba immediately.
This doesn't really answer the question because honestly we don't know if they will be good. It could be a mixed bag, these guys are young and have many mistakes to learn from. But the talent is there and it's a great thing for a staff who the last few years has been old and decrepid.
3. Can the team stay healthy?
I'm no Will Carroll from BP and never liked biology all that much, so this is really a shot in the dark. There are certain guys I'm worried about namely Jason Giambi, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada, Hideki Matsui, and Johnny Damon mostly because of their age and past injuries (or their position like Posada). Last year it was the pitching that was injured early and often. As long as pitch counts are monitored for the youngins that situation should be okay. I'm going to guess the Yankees deal with some injuries more of the offensive side of the ball this year. I think Damon will be on the DL for sure and Giambi is highly likely as well.
4. Will the Steinbrenner Bros. take on Dad's philophy?
There was a great article about how different the Steinbrenner brothers are. Hal (or is it Hank--I can't keep them straight yet) is 11 years younger, cool, calm and mild mannered and handles the numbers. Hank is more like his father (and looks like him too) and so far has "spoke his mind" as he puts it on A-Rod and the Red Sox. While this is something we'll know more of over time I don't think there will ever be another George Steinbrenner. Both brothers will want to win, but I don't think the antics are there.
5. Will the Yankees make the playoffs?
Yes. My guess is that the Yankees get the Wild Card again. There offense is too good and barring any injuries will compete with the Tigers to be the best offense in the AL. Getting to the playoffs won't be easy--the Tigers are better, the Indians are great, Seattle made improvements, the Angels are in the mix and oh yeah, there's those Red Sox who won this World Series thing to worry about.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Yankees 2007 Review
Finally I've sat myself down to review the season past for the Yankees. With spring training in the air and the countdown to the season opener ticking away the Yankees are looking forward to a new season with a new manager, two new Steinbrenner's at the helm, some new blood, and hopefully some new lessons learned. But let's not get ahead of ourselves--what happened to the Yankees in 2007 was quite literally a tale of two halves and one of their most amazing comebacks in their history. Yet, because of their disappointing postseason everyone forgets what got them there.
So Let's Go Back to the Beginning...
Just about a year ago the Yankees were essentially in the same position they are now bowing out of the first round of the playoffs to the Detroit Tigers. Derek Jeter was coming off an MVP-snubbed season, Matsui would be back from his wrist injury, Abreu was looking to continue what he had started since being traded, Pettitte was back where he was meant to be, a former strikeout king from Japan was taking the mound, and the expectation was that the Yankees would be back in the World Series. But April started off very ugly and it didn't get any better in May.
I can point to two main factors why the ugliness ensued. 1) The pitching staff was very bad because they were hurt or underperforming and 2) The offense got off to an extremely slow start.
On the first point, it's amazingly funny to see what the opening day pitching rotation was:
Wang missed the first few weeks of the season with hamstring problems, Mussina went down with an injury after two starts, Igawa was lit up having no command, and Pavano lasted all of two starts. So in came Darrel Rasner, Jeff Karstens, and even a very early call up of Phil Hughes. And then out went Karstens with a broken leg and Hughes with a hamstring injury. In May Rasner also went down with an injury so in came Tyler Clippard, Matt DeSolvo, and a guy named Chase Wright who gave up four bombs in a row at Fenway on April 22nd.
All this is to say the Yankees used 13 different starting pitchers within the first two months of the season. And the bullpen wasn't any better as they relied early and often on Vizcaino (7.27 ERA end of May) and Farnsworth (4.71 ERA end of May) who both struggled to hold down leads and do their jobs.
One would think though despite a rough first two months on the pitching side that the Yankees amazong offense from the top of the order to the bottom would make up for it. Well they didn't. At best they were league average and probably below average for the AL East racking up 5.25 runs/game. The light of hope in April was Alex Rodriguez's dominating start, which quickly went silent in May. Jorge Posada also had a hot two months, but for the rest of the Yankees there wasn't a whole lot going on.
Bobby Abreu's bat went nowhere in April and May out of the #3 hole as did Robinson Cano's. Johnny Damon and Matsui were very cold in April and Damon started showing signs that he was banged up and playing hurt. Giambi also got injured in May on a homerun trot in Toronto and while Mientkiewicz was great defensively at first, he certainly had no power.
And all of this is to say the Yankee lineup had no consistency either. If Jeter got on, Abreu couldn't knock him in. Giambi wasn't taking walks. Damon couldn't lead off. Nothing seemed to work.
However, once June rolled around the Yankees began turning their season around slowly. On May 3oth they were 13.5 games behind the AL East leading Boston Red Sox and then at the half way point they were 42-43, 11 games behind the Red Sox. Then suddenly in the second half, the Yankees became the best team in baseball
The Turn Around
In the second half the Yankees went 51-25 and were 1.5 games within first place on September 23rd. The offense exploded hitting 90 HRs in July and August and scoring nearly seven runs/game. Abreu and Cano started hitting well and Alex Rodriguez was in MVP form. Suprisingly Jorge Posada was suddenly competing for a batting title as a catcher at age 35. More importantly though the Yankees starting rotation gained some consistency as Clemens, Wang, and Pettitte held the fort down at times.
One of the nicer aspects of the second half came from rookies like Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, and Phil Hughes. Chamberlain got the most attention with the Joba Rules and eating up hitters left and right. He ended up only giving up one earned run. Ian Kennedy who like Chamberlain went from single-A to the majors in one season pitched amazingly well in three starts and Hughes who came back from a hamstring and ankle injury had four quality starts after coming back and had a very respectable September. All three of these guys are just 21 and showed they could be lights out.
There isn't one factor that brought the team together after the All-Star break. Maybe it was Jeter's leadership as captain and consistency (never hitting below .301 in any month) or Rodriguez's amazing season. It could have been the tremendous 2nd halves by Abreu and Cano or the fresh young talent that came up. Perhaps it was Clemens' return to pinstripes or Joe Torre's calm presense. Or even Brian Cashman sticking to his guns and not trading away the farm. However you add it up, the Yankees turn around was truly spectacular and with some luck they made it into the playoffs as the Wild Card team.
Another Disappointment, Followed by Even More
Despite the turn around in the second half, once the Yankees reached the playoffs they became a different team. Remember the Dynasty teams of 1996 to 2001--those days are officially long gone. The last three postseasons something has not felt right when the Yankees have reached the playoffs. Honestly I just don't feel comfortable watching the Yankees in the playoffs, I get nervous, and the team just is not at all what they were during the regular season.
And I'm right, the last three postseasons both the Yankee offense and pitching has been aweful, take a look:
Batting (BA/OBP/SLG, Runs, Ks)
2005 .253/.347/.392, 20 R/32 K
2006 .246/.289/.338, 14 R/24 K
2007 .228/.300/.404, 16 R/14 K
Pitching (ERA/IP/K/BB)
2005 4.40/43/26/5
2006 5.56/34/22/7
2007 5.89/36.7/30/20
A basic analysis shows that the Yankees aren't getting on base or hitting much while the pitching has given up more earned runs and the walks skyrocketed in 2007.
It's a twist of irony though. During the dynasy era the Yankees had no real big super stars, played sound baseball and won four World Series in a span of five years. After 2001 the Yankees began outspending everyone signing players like Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, and Gary Sheffield, and even trading for Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson, Jeff Weaver, and Javier Vazquez. When it came to the playoffs these players have failed to show up. And every Yankee fan knows that its players get respect and earn their true pinstripes when they help their team win in the playoffs. The Yankee teams of the 2002 onward look better on paper than on the field.
Alas with three postseason losses in a row Joe Torre was let go. At least that's how I and other fans feel even if he was offered an incentivized contract. For a team that looked as though they were not going to make the playoffs it was amazing that Joe Torre even got over 90 wins. But the opportunity to stay was gone, as was the patience of Steinbrenner, and a World Series title.
Maybe it was time for a change in leadership on several levels. In my next entry I'll talk about some of the pressing questions for the Yankees in 2008 and give some thoughts on how the new leadership may change the Yankees for year to come.
So Let's Go Back to the Beginning...
Just about a year ago the Yankees were essentially in the same position they are now bowing out of the first round of the playoffs to the Detroit Tigers. Derek Jeter was coming off an MVP-snubbed season, Matsui would be back from his wrist injury, Abreu was looking to continue what he had started since being traded, Pettitte was back where he was meant to be, a former strikeout king from Japan was taking the mound, and the expectation was that the Yankees would be back in the World Series. But April started off very ugly and it didn't get any better in May.
I can point to two main factors why the ugliness ensued. 1) The pitching staff was very bad because they were hurt or underperforming and 2) The offense got off to an extremely slow start.
On the first point, it's amazingly funny to see what the opening day pitching rotation was:
Wang
Pettitte
Mussina
Igawa
Pavano
Wang missed the first few weeks of the season with hamstring problems, Mussina went down with an injury after two starts, Igawa was lit up having no command, and Pavano lasted all of two starts. So in came Darrel Rasner, Jeff Karstens, and even a very early call up of Phil Hughes. And then out went Karstens with a broken leg and Hughes with a hamstring injury. In May Rasner also went down with an injury so in came Tyler Clippard, Matt DeSolvo, and a guy named Chase Wright who gave up four bombs in a row at Fenway on April 22nd.
All this is to say the Yankees used 13 different starting pitchers within the first two months of the season. And the bullpen wasn't any better as they relied early and often on Vizcaino (7.27 ERA end of May) and Farnsworth (4.71 ERA end of May) who both struggled to hold down leads and do their jobs.
One would think though despite a rough first two months on the pitching side that the Yankees amazong offense from the top of the order to the bottom would make up for it. Well they didn't. At best they were league average and probably below average for the AL East racking up 5.25 runs/game. The light of hope in April was Alex Rodriguez's dominating start, which quickly went silent in May. Jorge Posada also had a hot two months, but for the rest of the Yankees there wasn't a whole lot going on.
Bobby Abreu's bat went nowhere in April and May out of the #3 hole as did Robinson Cano's. Johnny Damon and Matsui were very cold in April and Damon started showing signs that he was banged up and playing hurt. Giambi also got injured in May on a homerun trot in Toronto and while Mientkiewicz was great defensively at first, he certainly had no power.
And all of this is to say the Yankee lineup had no consistency either. If Jeter got on, Abreu couldn't knock him in. Giambi wasn't taking walks. Damon couldn't lead off. Nothing seemed to work.
However, once June rolled around the Yankees began turning their season around slowly. On May 3oth they were 13.5 games behind the AL East leading Boston Red Sox and then at the half way point they were 42-43, 11 games behind the Red Sox. Then suddenly in the second half, the Yankees became the best team in baseball
The Turn Around
In the second half the Yankees went 51-25 and were 1.5 games within first place on September 23rd. The offense exploded hitting 90 HRs in July and August and scoring nearly seven runs/game. Abreu and Cano started hitting well and Alex Rodriguez was in MVP form. Suprisingly Jorge Posada was suddenly competing for a batting title as a catcher at age 35. More importantly though the Yankees starting rotation gained some consistency as Clemens, Wang, and Pettitte held the fort down at times.
One of the nicer aspects of the second half came from rookies like Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, and Phil Hughes. Chamberlain got the most attention with the Joba Rules and eating up hitters left and right. He ended up only giving up one earned run. Ian Kennedy who like Chamberlain went from single-A to the majors in one season pitched amazingly well in three starts and Hughes who came back from a hamstring and ankle injury had four quality starts after coming back and had a very respectable September. All three of these guys are just 21 and showed they could be lights out.
There isn't one factor that brought the team together after the All-Star break. Maybe it was Jeter's leadership as captain and consistency (never hitting below .301 in any month) or Rodriguez's amazing season. It could have been the tremendous 2nd halves by Abreu and Cano or the fresh young talent that came up. Perhaps it was Clemens' return to pinstripes or Joe Torre's calm presense. Or even Brian Cashman sticking to his guns and not trading away the farm. However you add it up, the Yankees turn around was truly spectacular and with some luck they made it into the playoffs as the Wild Card team.
Another Disappointment, Followed by Even More
Despite the turn around in the second half, once the Yankees reached the playoffs they became a different team. Remember the Dynasty teams of 1996 to 2001--those days are officially long gone. The last three postseasons something has not felt right when the Yankees have reached the playoffs. Honestly I just don't feel comfortable watching the Yankees in the playoffs, I get nervous, and the team just is not at all what they were during the regular season.
And I'm right, the last three postseasons both the Yankee offense and pitching has been aweful, take a look:
Batting (BA/OBP/SLG, Runs, Ks)
2005 .253/.347/.392, 20 R/32 K
2006 .246/.289/.338, 14 R/24 K
2007 .228/.300/.404, 16 R/14 K
Pitching (ERA/IP/K/BB)
2005 4.40/43/26/5
2006 5.56/34/22/7
2007 5.89/36.7/30/20
A basic analysis shows that the Yankees aren't getting on base or hitting much while the pitching has given up more earned runs and the walks skyrocketed in 2007.
It's a twist of irony though. During the dynasy era the Yankees had no real big super stars, played sound baseball and won four World Series in a span of five years. After 2001 the Yankees began outspending everyone signing players like Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, and Gary Sheffield, and even trading for Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson, Jeff Weaver, and Javier Vazquez. When it came to the playoffs these players have failed to show up. And every Yankee fan knows that its players get respect and earn their true pinstripes when they help their team win in the playoffs. The Yankee teams of the 2002 onward look better on paper than on the field.
Alas with three postseason losses in a row Joe Torre was let go. At least that's how I and other fans feel even if he was offered an incentivized contract. For a team that looked as though they were not going to make the playoffs it was amazing that Joe Torre even got over 90 wins. But the opportunity to stay was gone, as was the patience of Steinbrenner, and a World Series title.
Maybe it was time for a change in leadership on several levels. In my next entry I'll talk about some of the pressing questions for the Yankees in 2008 and give some thoughts on how the new leadership may change the Yankees for year to come.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Baseball!!
Pitchers and catchers arrived today--at least most of them which begins the start of spring training and the 2008 baseball season. By the end of the month I hope to review 2007's down, up, down season for the Yankees and sometime in March lay out what may happen in 2008 for the team. I'll also probably offer some general predictions for the 2008 season across all of baseball.
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